Thermal Interface Materials 2020-2030: Forecasts, Technologies, Opportunities
Market trends and drivers for key industries; technology trends and emerging material opportunities.
The demand for TIM will exceed 30m m2 by 2025.
Thermal Interface Materials (TIM) are not glamourous but are often an essential component found in all manner of electronic and energy storage applications. Indeed, they are absolutely pervasive. They are truly a diverse technology in terms of suppliers, material options, deposition techniques, applications, market requirement and performance levels. This makes them difficult to analyse.
In this report, we have analysed all the key established and emerging technology options. This report carefully examines the applications which are extremely diverse. We cover base stations, consumer electronics, power electronics, LEDs, and energy storage. We consider real use cases and product teardowns in order to formulate our analysis and build our market models. We take a granular view for each market category. Indeed, our forecasts are broken into 51 specific sub-segments, as shown below, giving them unparalleled granularity. Finally, we provide our forecasts in area or sqm. We believe that this is the most appropriate metric in analysing the market since, in the absence of one-size-fits-all solutions, the solutions' thickness levels vary.
Changing application landscape
Our granular forecasts enable us to develop a detailed view of the key market trends. Here we briefly discuss some top-level trends.
The consumer electronic market is today the largest market category. This is because the TIM content per unit is relatively high, but, more importantly, because the annual unit sales are high. Here, TIM is used with the electronics and the batteries. In a typical mobile phone, for example, there are multiple thermal pads connecting the EMI shield lid, which covers multiple ICs, to the framework. There is also typically a heat spreader below the battery as well as behind the display. In some recent versions, a heat pipe is also introduced to act as a compact and efficient heatsink. In laptops, there are usually TIMs atop or below the CPU, GPU, SSD memory and batteries. In general, this is a large market but will not register significant growth as the unit sales are already in the saturation phase.
Telecoms is also another significant market. In traditional base stations, TIM is used in both the baseband and the remote radio head unit. The baseband unit itself is typically composed of various parts such as baseband processing board, control board, power supply, and so on. This had been a fast-growing market in recent years as LTE stations were globally rolled out. This trend will continue as LTE is still being rolled out in various parts of the world such as China. However, this trend will go into a fast decline from 2023 onwards. This is because 5G stations will start to be rolled out in more significant numbers. As such, the opportunity will shift towards 5G system.
Here, the TIM requirements are likely to be different. The rise of 5G will change the relationship between the baseband unit and the remote radio head. Furthermore, the rise of active antenna arrays will require the integration of many front-end modules, which contain a power amplifier, right behind the antenna array substrate. The fact that air losses at higher frequencies are higher will imply that power amplifier will need to output higher powers even when the gain from the active antenna array itself becomes substantial. Finally, 5G will lead to a proliferation of smaller cells, the so-called micro or femto cells. These require even more compact designs. Indeed, a trend will be to use advanced packaging technologies to achieve as much functional integration as possible per packaged chip. All these trends point towards higher power density per unit area thus more challenging TIM requirements.
Data centres are likely to continue their growth rates thanks to both increased new as well as replacement demand. These centres are very energy intensive and heat management is a critical task. TIM are used in almost all components of a data centre including the serve boards, switches, supervisor modules, and power supplies. Here, the employed TIM technologies are not likely to significantly change.
Granular market forecasts (51 forecast lines) in sqm showing how the market will dramatically increase over the coming years. The main growth areas will be in energy storage, 5G networks, and data centres. Source: Thermal Interface Materials 2020-2030: Forecasts, technologies, Opportunities.
Power electronics remain an important market for TIM. In classical power electronic modules, the baseplate is connected via a TIM to a heatsink. However, many designs in high performance applications, including many in electric vehicle traction drivers, are seeking to eliminate the TIM. This is because the TIM is the most thermally resistive section of the thermal path from the semiconductor junction to the heatsink. Indeed, many designs, some of which are already in volume production, have direct cooling, e.g., air or liquid directly cool the baseplate, and have thus eliminated the TIM. This trend suggests that the TIM consumption in electric vehicle power electronics will not grow as fast the power electronics market itself. Note that phase change materials pre-applied by the module maker are popular in power electronic modules since the wetting and spreading property together with the thinness at operating temperatures give rise to high performance which can be better guaranteed. The market remains substantial overall, registering 6% average annual growth rate between 2020 and 2030 across all the categories including home appliances, renewables, industrial, and EV as well as non-EV traction applications.
The LED market is very substantial. TIM are used in many LEDs. The LED packaging technology is diverse including die-on-lead-frame, die-on-ceramic, die-on-metal-core-PCBS, and so on. In general lighting, TIM is often used in moderate- to high-power LED lights to connect the metal-insulator-substrate or board with the heatsink. The use of LEDs in automotive lighting is also substantially growing. In the exterior of car, there are many light sources including front light, rear right, signal lights, and so on. The use of TIM will grow nearly hand-in-hand with the penetration of LEDs in automotive lighting. In headlamps, traditional light sources will compose only 55% (75% today) of the total in 2023 with the rest using standard or Matrix LEDs. LEDs are also used in LCD displays. Here, too, often a heat spreader layer is used in both backlit and edge lit LCD displays. This is a notable market given the huge aggregate surface area of annually produced screens.
The explosive growth of energy storage in electric vehicle market?
The big driver of change however is the energy storage market, or more specifically the lithium ion battery market in electric vehicles. This is because the rise of electric vehicles will translate into growing demand for batteries. Furthermore, the growth in range of electric vehicles will translate into large battery capacities. These are large batteries composed of many cells. Thermal management is a key issue, which underpins efficient performance and is also safety critical in order to prevent thermal runaway.
There are today many different ways in which thermal interface materials are used in battery modules. This is natural as a dominant settled design has yet to emerge. In nearly all cases, there is potted thermal interface materials on the bottom plate of the battery pack, creating a thermal path between the cells and the heatsink. In some cases, there are head spreaders in-between the individual cells, further promoting heat conduction. In some designs, to prevent thermal failure spreading between cells, an insulating cushion foam, e.g. PU, is deployed. In pouch cells there can also be layers of gap pads.
This market will register dramatic growth over the coming decade, thereby completely changing the market composition for TIMs. This growth is driven by (a) rise in the addressable market which is essentially the growth in all manners of electric vehicles, and (b) the high thermal material content per battery pack and indeed per kWh deployed. As a consequence, we forecast that this market segment will grow from nearly zero to more than half of the total market (in sqm terms) by 2025. This will indeed be a dramatic transformation.
Pie chart showing the market split in 2019 and in 2025. It is evident that the energy storage market will rise from nearly zero to more than half the market by 2025, representing an explosive growth opportunity. Source: Thermal Interface Materials 2020-2030: Forecasts, technologies, Opportunities.
Thermal interface materials can take numerous forms (and names), from gap pads/fillers to conductive adhesives, thermal greases, and beyond. There are a variety of property considerations for a TIM given its specific applications this includes the adhesiveness, viscosity, coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE), bond line thickness, reworkability, and longevity. However, the most significant is the through-plane conductivity and the thermal contact resistance (the interface of the interface material). The trend towards higher performance TIM will continue as devices utilize more dense arrangements of ICs.
This report looks at all the incumbent materials, such as the prevalent ceramic-filled silicones, phase change materials (PCM), and more.
In addition, this report looks at new emerging materials and how they are processed. It is important to consider routes to manipulating the alignment of conductive fillers. Alignment, particularly for anisotropic additives, can either provide a cost saving by using less material for same performance or improve the performance for the same filler content. This should also be considered in conjunction with the mechanical performance the matrix material provides. Achieving alignment can be done in multiple routes: mechanical, magnetic, electrical, dielectrophoresis, or in how the conductive fillers are grown.
Many are turning to advanced carbon for higher conductivity either as a conductive filler in a polymer matrix or standalone. This includes graphite, pitch-based carbon fiber, carbon nanotubes, and graphene. As shown in the figure below, achieving vertical alignment gives the potential for high conductivity up to ca. 80 W/mk.
One of the most notable examples is the adoption of carbon fiber in the Samsung Galaxy Note9. IDTechEx has been informed that carbon fiber based TIM is also in use for power electronic devices in electric vehicles, a variety of military applications, high performance computing and more.
Graphite through to graphene as sheets, pastes or vertically aligned in pads have all received a significant amount of attention. All report significant conductivity improvements and show current and future promise in LEDs, consumer electronics, base stations and more.
Carbon nanotubes have been known since the early 1990s and have been explored as a conductive filler, but more notable is the extensive research in vertically aligned forests/arrays (VACNT). There are still notable challenges, from how the VACNT are transferred after growth through to how they achieve uniform contact resistance. However, significant collaborations and announcements from many of the leading players in China and Japan indicate that this a promising future area.
Figure 1: Benchmarking study of different carbon materials used as TIM in different forms. Source: Thermal Interface Materials 2020-2030: Forecasts, technologies, Opportunities.
One of the challenges with using advanced carbons is that they are electrically conductive; this means the device must be designed accordingly. Ceramics are preferred for this amongst other reasons. There are trends to more spherical or flake like particles where appropriate, but concerning emerging material there is more interest around boron nitride nanostructures. Boron nitride nanotubes (BNNT) or nanosheets (BNNS) are both starting to become commercial.
BNNTs have a wide variation in property and cost with still a limited number of players, but many are progressing from the lab to pilot plants and even full-scale production. Most cite TIM as a key target market with already some promising results and interest from significant industries.
Analyst access from IDTechEx
All report purchases include up to 30 minutes telephone time with an expert analyst who will help you link key findings in the report to the business issues you're addressing. This needs to be used within three months of purchasing the report.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- 1.1. Introduction to Thermal Interface Materials (TIM)
- 1.2. Overview of TIM by type
- 1.3. Advanced Materials for TIM
- 1.4. Market Overview
- 1.5. Market forecast: TIM for EV battery packs
- 1.6. Market forecast: TIM for power electronic modules
- 1.7. Market forecast: TIM in LED for general lighting
- 1.8. Market forecast: TIM in LED for automotive
- 1.9. Market forecast: TIM in LED for displays
- 1.10. Market forecast: TIM in LED for 4G/LTE base stations
- 1.11. Market forecast: TIM for 5G base stations
- 1.12. Market forecast: TIM for consumer electronics
2. OVERVIEW OF THERMAL INTERFACE MATERIALS
- 2.1. Introduction to Thermal Interface Materials (TIM)
- 2.2. Key Factors in System Level Performance
- 2.3. Thermal Conductivity vs Thermal Resistance
3. TIM FORM AND MATERIAL OVERVIEW
- 3.1. TIM considerations
- 3.2. Thermal Interface Material by physical form
- 3.3. Assessment and considerations of liquid products
- 3.4. Ten Types of Thermal Interface Material
- 3.5. Properties of Thermal Interface Materials
- 3.6.1. Pressure-Sensitive Adhesive Tapes
- 3.7.2. Thermal Liquid Adhesives
- 3.8.3. Thermal Greases
- 3.9. Problems with thermal greases
- 3.10. Thermal Greases
- 3.11. Viscosity of Thermal Greases
- 3.12. Technical Data on Thermal Greases
- 3.13. The effect of filler, matrix and loading on thermal conductivity
- 3.14.4. Thermal Gels
- 3.15.5. Thermal Pastes
- 3.16. Technical Data on Gels and Pastes
- 3.18. Advantages and Disadvantages of Elastomeric Pads
- 3.19.7. Phase Change Materials (PCMs)
- 3.20. Phase Change Materials - overview
- 3.21. Operating Temperature Range of Commercially Available Phase Change Materials
4. ADVANCED MATERIALS AS THERMAL INTERFACE MATERIALS
- 4.1. Advanced Materials for TIM - Introduction
- 4.2. Achieving through-plane alignment
- 4.3. Summary of TIM utilising advanced carbon materials
- 5.1. Graphite - overview
- 5.2. Graphite Sheets: Through-plane limitations
- 5.3. Graphite Sheets: interfacing with heat source and disrupting alignment
- 5.4. Panasonic - Pyrolytic Graphite Sheet (PGS)
- 5.5. Progressions in vertical graphite
- 5.6. Vertical graphite with additives
- 5.7. Graphite Pastes
6. CARBON FIBER
- 6.1. Carbon fiber as a thermal interface material - introduction
- 6.2. Carbon fiber as TIM in smartphones
- 6.3. Magnetic alignment of carbon fiber TIM
- 6.4. Other routes to CF alignment in a TIM
- 6.5. Carbon fiber with other conductive additives
7. CARBON NANOTUBES (CNT)
- 7.1. Introduction to Carbon Nanotubes (CNT)
- 7.2. Challenges with VACNT as TIM
- 7.3. Transferring VACNT arrays
- 7.4. Notable CNT TIM examples from commercial players
- 8.1. Graphene in thermal management: application roadmap
- 8.2. Graphene heat spreaders: commercial success
- 8.3. Graphene heat spreaders: performance
- 8.4. Graphene heat spreaders: suppliers multiply
- 8.5. Graphene as a thermal paste additive
- 8.6. Graphene as additives to thermal interface pads
9. CERAMIC ADVANCEMENTS
- 9.1. Ceramic trends: spherical variants
- 9.2. Denka: functional fine particles for thermal management
- 9.3. Showa Denko: transition from flake to spherical type filler
10. BORON NITRIDE NANOSTRUCTURES
- 10.1. Introduction to nano boron nitride
- 10.2. BNNT players and prices
- 10.3. BNNT property variation
- 10.4. BN nanostructures in thermal interface materials
11. TIM FOR EV BATTERY PACKS
- 11.1. Introduction to thermal management for EVs
- 11.2. Battery thermal management - hot and cold
- 11.3. Cell chemistry impact thermal runaway likelihood
- 11.4. Analysis of passive battery cooling methods
- 11.5. Analysis of active battery cooling methods
- 11.6. Emerging routes - Immersion cooling
- 11.7. Emerging routes - phase change materials
- 11.8. Main incentives for liquid cooling
- 11.9. Shifting OEM Strategies - liquid cooling
- 11.10. Global trends in OEM cooling methodologies adopted
- 11.11. Is tab cooling a solution?
- 11.12. Thermal management - pack and module overview
- 11.13. Thermal Interface Material (TIM) - pack and module overview
- 11.14. Switching to gap fillers rather than pads
- 11.15. EV use-case examples (1)
- 11.16. Battery pack TIM - Options and market comparison
- 11.17. The silicone dilemma for the automotive industry
- 11.18. TIM: silicone alternatives
- 11.19. The main players and considerations
- 11.20. Notable acquisitions for TIM players
- 11.21. TIM for electric vehicle battery packs - trends
- 11.22. TIM for EV battery packs - forecast by category
- 11.23. TIM for EV battery packs - forecast by TIM type
- 11.24. Insulating cell-to-cell foams
- 11.25. Heat spreaders or interspersed cooling plates - pouches and prismatic
- 11.26. Active cell-to-cell cooling solutions - cylindrical
- 11.27. Summary and Conclusions for LiB for EV
12. TIM FOR POWER MODULES
- 12.1. Why use TIM in power modules?
- 12.2. Which EV inverter modules have TIM?
- 12.3. When will the TIM not become the limiting factor?
- 12.4. Why the drive to eliminate the TIM?
- 12.5. Has TIM been eliminated in any EV inverter modules?
- 12.6. Choice of non-bonded thermal interface materials
- 12.7. Comparison of various thermal greases
- 12.8. Thermal grease: other shortcomings
- 12.9. Thermal grease: causes of failure
- 12.10. Phase change materials (PCM) in power electronics modules
- 12.11. Thermal resistance of grease and PCMs
- 12.12. TIM market forecast in $ and tons for all power modules (2019 to 2030)
13. TIM FOR DATA CENTERS
- 13.1. Thermal Interface Materials in data centers: introduction
- 13.2. Introduction to data center equipment: servers, switches, and supervisors
- 13.3. How TIMs are used in servers
- 13.4. Estimating the TIM area in servers
- 13.5. Data center: determining the relative number of equipment by examining common design methods
- 13.6. Average switch port numbers
- 13.7. How TIMs are used in data centre switches
- 13.8. Estimating the TIM area in data center switches
- 13.9. Estimating the number of supervisor modules in data centers
- 13.10. How TIMs are used in supervisor modules in data centers
- 13.11. TIM consumption in power supply modules of data centers
- 13.12. How are TIMs used in power suppliers in data centers?
- 13.13. Ten-year server forecast in million units (2018 to 2030)
- 13.14. Ten-year forecasts (2018 to 2030) for switches and supervisor modules in data centers
- 13.15. Aggregated data center equipment unit number forecast (2018 to 2030)
- 13.16. Thermal interface material surface area in the data centers (2018 to 2030)
14. TIM IN LED FOR GENERAL LIGHTING
- 14.1. General lighting market
- 14.2. LED technology and application space reaches maturity
- 14.3. LED technology: approaching maturity
- 14.4. LED market: top and median performance levels in various sectors
- 14.5. LEDs: price target and price evolution
- 14.6. LEDs: why focus on thermal management
- 14.7. LEDs come in a variety of packages
- 14.8. LED package and board assembly reviews: die on lead-frame and die on ceramic on FR4 with vias
- 14.9. LED package and board assembly reviews: COB on metal core PCB and ceramic boards
- 14.10. LED packaging: improving in thermal resistance over time
- 14.11. Choices of thermal boards: FR4 and Insulated Metal Substrate
- 14.12. Insulated metal substrate: the importance of the dielectric
- 14.13. Choices of thermal boards: FR4 with filled thermal vias
- 14.14. Moderate to high power LEDs require TIM
- 14.15. Low power LED lamp design may have no TIM
- 14.16. Going from LED to board-level area
- 14.17. TIM: a variety of choices available
- 14.18. LED lighting market: unit number forecasts from 2017 to 2030
- 14.19. TIM market in LED general lighting (2018 to 2030) in tons and area
15. TIM IN LED FOR AUTOMOTIVE
- 15.1. LED lighting market in automotive
- 15.2. Examples of LED headlights in various vehicles
- 15.3. Examples of boards used in tail and head LED automotive lights
- 15.4. LED for automotive: key characteristics
- 15.5. LED in automotive: trend towards matrix systems
- 15.6. LED in automotive: lumen output requirements for headlamp, tail lights and various signal functions
- 15.7. TIM addressable market (2018 to 2030)
- 15.8. TIM market forecasts in sqm and tons (2018 and 2030)
16. TIM IN LED FOR DISPLAYS
- 16.1. Display industry in sqm
- 16.2. The rise of OLED will affect the addressable market?
- 16.3. TIM in edge-lit and direct-lit LED-LCDs
- 16.4. The importance of thermal management
- 16.5. Estimating LED in LCD numbers
- 16.6. Addressable market for TIM in LED-LCD displays in sqm and tons (2018 to 2030)
17. TIM IN BASE STATIONS
- 17.1. A simple description to the anatomy of a base station
- 17.2. Background info on baseband processing unit and remote radio head
- 17.3. Path evolution from baseband unit to antenna
- 17.4. The 6 components of a baseband processing unit
- 17.5. BBU parts I: TIM area in the main control board
- 17.6. BBU parts II & III: TIM area in the baseband processing board & the transmission extension board
- 17.7. BBU parts IV & V: TIM area in radio interface board & satellite-card board
- 17.8. BBU parts VI: TIM area in the power supply board
- 17.9. Remote radio head unit components
- 17.10. RRU parts: TIM area in the main board
- 17.11. RRU parts: TIM area in PA board
- 17.12. Summary
- 17.13. BBU TIM forecasts in 4G/LTE base stations
- 17.14. RRU TIM forecast in 4G/LTE base stations
- 17.15. Total TIM area forecast for the 4G/LTE base stations
18. 5G BASE STATIONS
- 18.1. What is 5G
- 18.2. Evolution of mobile communications
- 18.3. What can 5G offer?
- 18.4. Differences between 4G and 5G
- 18.5. 5G operates at high frequency
- 18.6. High Frequency lead to high capacity, low latency and changes in antennas & stations
- 18.7. 5G base station types
- 18.8. 5G trend: small cells (picocell and femtocell)
- 18.9. Base station architecture: C-RAN
- 18.10. Evolution of the cellular base station: overview
- 18.11. Radio Frequency Front End (RFFE) Module
- 18.12. Massive MIMO requires active antennas
- 18.13. 5G station instalment number by year
- 18.14. Main suppliers of 5G active antennas unit (AAU) (1)
- 18.15. Case study: NEC 5G Radio Unit
- 18.16. Case study: Samsung 5G Access solution for SK telecom
- 18.17. Air cavity vs plastic overmold packages
- 18.18. Examples of ceramic packages
- 18.19. Examples of actual packaged GaN discreet PAs
- 18.20. GaAs also requires conductive heat slug
- 18.21. Air-cavity packages for full front end modules
- 18.22. TIM forecast in 5G base stations (macro, micro, pico, femto stations)
19. TIM IN CONSUMER ELECTRONICS
- 19.1. Introduction
- 19.2. Galaxy 3: teardown and how TIM is used
- 19.3. Galaxy S6: teardown and how TIM is used
- 19.4. Galaxy S7: teardown and how TIM is used
- 19.5. Galaxy S7: teardown and how TIM is used
- 19.6. Galaxy S9: teardown and how TIM is used
- 19.7. Galaxy note 9 carbon water cooling system
- 19.8. Samsung S10 and S10e: teardown and how TIM is used
- 19.9. Galaxy S6 and S7 TIM area estimates
- 19.10. Oppo R17: teardown and how TIM is used
- 19.11. Huawei Mate Pro 30: teardown and how TIM is used
- 19.12. Huawei Mate Pro 20: teardown and how TIM is used
- 19.13. iPhone 4: teardown and how TIM is used
- 19.14. iPhone 5: teardown and how TIM is used
- 19.15. iPhone 7: teardown and how TIM is used
- 19.16. iPhone X: teardown and how TIM is used
- 19.17. Smartphone TIM estimate summary
- 19.18. Asus K570U and Clevo P641RE: teardown and how TIM is used
- 19.19. Lenovo ThinkPad X1 and Dell XPs 13: teardown and how TIM is used
- 19.20. Apple MacBook Pro, Asus ROG Zephyrus M501 & Dell Inspiron 15 7000
- 19.21. LAPTOP TIM SPECS
- 19.22. Unit sales forecast for consumer electronics
- 19.23. Thermal interface material and heat spreader forecast in consumer electronics
- 19.24. Thermal interface material and heat spreader forecast in smart phones
- 19.25. Thermal interface material and heat spreader forecast for laptops
- 19.26. Thermal interface material and heat spreader forecast for tablets
- 19.27. Thermal interface material and heat spreader forecast for desktops
20. COMPANY PROFILES
- 20.1. 3M Electronic Materials
- 20.2. AI Technology
- 20.3. AIM Specialty Materials
- 20.4. AOS Thermal
- 20.5. Bando
- 20.6. BNNano
- 20.7. BNNT
- 20.8. Condalign
- 20.9. Denka
- 20.10. Dexerials
- 20.11. DK Thermal
- 20.12. Dow Corning
- 20.13. Dymax Corporation
- 20.14. Ellsworth Adhesives
- 20.15. Enerdyne
- 20.16. European Thermodynamics Ltd
- 20.17. Fujipoly
- 20.18. Fralock
- 20.19. GrafTech
- 20.20. Henkel
- 20.21. Hitek Electronic Materials
- 20.22. Honeywell
- 20.23. Indium Corporation
- 20.24. Inkron
- 20.25. Kitagawa Industries
- 20.26. Laird Tech
- 20.27. LORD
- 20.28. MA Electronics
- 20.29. MH&W International
- 20.30. Minteq
- 20.31. Momentive
- 20.32. NeoGraf Solutions
- 20.33. Parker Chomerics
- 20.34. Resinlab
- 20.35. Schlegel Electronics Materials
- 20.36. ShinEtsu
- 20.37. Smart Hight Tech
- 20.38. Timtronics
- 20.39. Universal Science