조톨유 시장 보고서 : 동향, 예측, 경쟁 분석(-2035년)

Crude Tall Oil Market

The future of the global crude tall oil market looks promising with opportunities in the CTO distillation and CTO biofuel markets. The global crude tall oil market is expected to reach an estimated $3.7 billion by 2035 from $2.2 billion in 2027 with a CAGR of 8.1% from 2027 to 2035. The major drivers for this market are the increasing demand for biofuels, the rising use in industrial applications, and the growing adoption of sustainable materials.

• Lucintel forecasts that, within the type category, softwood is expected to witness the highest growth over the forecast period due to increased accessibility and demand for softwood-based raw materials.
• Within the application category, CTO distillation is expected to witness higher growth over the forecast period due to increased demand for the effective recovery of valuable chemicals from CTO.
• In terms of regions, APAC is expected to witness the highest growth over the forecast period due to increased production of pulp and increasing industrialization in economies.

Emerging Trends in Crude Tall Oil Market

The demand for crude tall oil is shifting from being a pulp mill byproduct to a strategically important biobased feedstock; between 2025 and 2027, refiners will face increased competition from other biorefineries for forest residue, while demand from biofuels, resins, adhesives, and specialty chemicals will likely increase. Lucintel predicts integrated fractionation, stabilized feedstock contracts, and lower carbon applications will be the main drivers for value creation.

• Sustainability: The EU's renewable fuel mandates and corporate emissions reduction targets will drive interest in tall oil derived biofuels. Neste's 2024 sales of their renewable products for €5.7 billion will create market competition for crude tall oil. Demand for biobased products will increase as buyers are expecting more traceable and non-food carbon sources.
• Integrated Biorefining: Stora Enso has significantly increased their 2025 investments in renewable materials and bio-based chemical production. There will be a positive increase in government investment expected in integrated biorefining in the next 3-5 years with an expected reduction in the sole chemical market.
• Regional Supply Diversification: Buyers in North America and the Nordic countries are broadening their sourcing networks to deal with supply disruptions due to mill closures and extreme weather events. In 2024, it was estimated that the U.S.'s capacity for forest products was greater than 80 million metric tons of pulp. This will lead to a greater interest in longer contracts and on-site storage;
• Specialty Chemical Upgrading: CTO refiners can move past the production of commodity fuels and produce dimer acids, alkyd resins, and adhesives. It is projected that the demand for adhesives will be above 80 billion USD by 2027. High demand for specialty chemicals will drive supply because of weak economics of producing commodity fuels.
• Process Digitalization: Refiners are using automation and online controls to manage variable CTO composition. The 2023 estimate for the global pulp and paper mill used recovery paper to the tune of 190 million tons, indicating a sector-wide drive for efficiency. Digital control will help improve yield and make smaller projects more viable.

Demand will still be tied to pulp production, but the opportunity for value growth will be from smart fractionation rather than just increasing volume. Sustainability regulation and renewable diesel procurement will change customer demands. Suppliers with flexible processing and renewable diesel together with strong forestry linkages will be the winners. The market will continue to be cyclical, but its biobased nature will support longer-term investment until 2030.

Recent Developments in the Crude Tall Oil Market

Market activity for crude tall oil is picking up as by-products from pulp-mill processing are gaining market value in renewable fuels and bio-based chemicals. For the 2025-2027 period, producers plan to allocate their capital into feedstock integration, refinery capacity, and lower-carbon alternatives. Lucintel expects this period to be beneficial for suppliers who secure both sourcing and conversion assets.

• Investment in Renewable Fuels: Neste increased its procurement of renewable feedstocks in February 2025 and supported its 6.8 million tonne renewable- products capacity. With refiners offering non-food lipids for production of sustainable aviation fuel, crude tall oil demand is expected to increase.
• Policies Driving Demand: The U.S. EPA finalized its 2025 renewable fuel obligations at 24.46 billion gallons in June 2025. Within the new mandate, increases in blending requirements create an attractive business case to maintain long-term contracts to supply crude tall oil for the purpose of upgrading.
• Integrated Biorefineries: In 2025, UPM continued the commercial ramp-up of its Rotterdam biorefinery and integrated renewable chemicals with forest-based industry feedstocks. As integrated assets replace standalone trading, conversion improves and yields consistency for products.
• Expanding Product Offerings of Tall-oil: Ingevity reported specialty chemicals as $1.3 billion revenue for 2024 and continued with its portfolio optimization efforts in 2025. Strong demand for rosin and fatty acid derivatives will allow for higher-value crude tall oil fractionation over simple fuel sales.
• Supply-chain Rationalization: Metsa Group and ANDRITZ completed a recovery-boiler modernization project in Finland mill in May 2025. Energy performance and chemical recovery will improve at the mill. Improvements in chemical recovery increase tall oil volume while lowering cost of production.

The market is rapidly shifting toward the more organized management of feedstocks as opposed to opportunistic by-product trading. Refiners are demanding more constant and higher quality, while pulp producers are aiming for more profits, and policymakers are continuously setting higher requirements for renewable content. Overall, capacity additions will still be selective as the availability of crude tall oil will continue to be dependent on the output of kraft-pulp. During the next five years, mill access combined with upgrading technology and contracted offtake will position many companies clear over their competitors.

Strategic Growth Opportunities in the Crude Tall Oil Market

The market for crude tall oil will enter a new broader cycle with changes in pulp capacity, mandates for renewable fuels, and demand for chemical decarbonization expected from 2024 to 2026. From Lucintel's perspective, greater value can be captured from fractionation and regional supply integration and from sales of low-carbon products, rather than from sales of commodities.

• Renewable Diesel Feedstock: Refiners will purchase crude tall oil as waste-based feedstock will support the development of lower carbon fuel portfolios. In January 2025, the EU maintained a goal of a 14.5% reduction in total greenhouse gas emissions for the transport sector by 2030. This goal will continue to support market demand as refiners will purchase residual crude oil products without competing for food oils.
• Tall-oil Chemicals: The market for chemicals derived from crude tall oil will focus more on fatty acids, rosin, and specialty intermediates for adhesives and coatings. In March 2025, the global adhesives market was forecast to be greater than US$70 billion. Bio-derived intermediates will create more investment opportunities for crude tall oil derivatives as customers are demanding greater performance consistency.
• Sustainable Packaging: Driers from crude tall oil can support the development of renewable, low-carbon, fiber-based packaging. In February 2025, the EU Packaging Waste Directive aimed for a 15% reduction in packaging waste by 2040. Packaging converters will focus on more environmentally friendly inputs to replace fossil-based materials and maintain current production.
• Asia-Pacific Expansion: Suppliers can capitalize on the growing potential to collect, store, and further process crude tall oil to meet new pulp demand from China and other countries in SE Asia. In 2024, China produced an estimated 140 million metric tons of paper and paperboard, according to industry statistics from early 2025. Local processing will considerably reduce transport costs and improve security of supply.
• Traceable Premium Grades: Supply chains should report certified origin, carbon accounting and consistent chemistry in order to justify a price premium from the largest buyers in the world. After the 2025 implementations of the EU Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive, about 50,000 companies will need to report. Auditable crude tall oil grades will dominate the market as procurement teams connect purchasing decisions to emissions data.

Demand by itself will not yield good returns. Mills need consistent recovery, refiners need consistent feedstock, and chemical producers need consistent specifications. The best suppliers will integrate these needs through contracts, certification and regional processing. Feedstock competition, policy changes and transport costs will remain important, but crude tall oil will become a more important strategic feedstock as industries replace other fossil based feedstocks.

Crude Tall Oil Market Drivers and Challenges

Factors affecting the growth of crude tall oil include advanced technology, the economy, regulations, the aim toward sustainability, and industrial capacities. Bio-based chemicals and renewable fuels have an increasing demand, which creates more applications. Pulp mills dictate how much feedstock there is. According to Lucintel, price instability, decarbonization, and competition from other low-carbon feedstock are issues market players must deal with. These factors change how competitive it remains to be in the different regions of the value chain.

The main drivers of the crude tall oil market are:

• More Demand for Bio-based Chemicals: An increasing preference for renewable feedstocks will lead manufacturers to replace traditional feedstocks with crude tall oil for application in resins, adhesives, coatings, lubricants, and specialty chemicals. With the growing demand for bio-based chemicals, there was a 100 million metric ton capacity for bio-based chemicals produced worldwide in 2025, indicating a rising preference for crude tall oil (December 2025). In the coming five years, the market is expected to grow due to demand for low carbon crude tall oil and the sustainability targets.
• Greater Demand for Renewable Fuels: Crude tall oil is an excellent feedstock for diesel, SAF intermediates, and other low carbon fuels. In 2025, policies related to renewable diesel and SAF established over 20 billion gallons of production globally (June 2025). In the next five years, landing commitments, airline decarbonization, and carbon pricing will create demand for crude tall oil while increasing the value of crude tall oil.
• Regulatory Support for Decarbonization: Policies for carbon-reduction, renewable-content mandates, and circular-economy regulations provide opportunities for crude tall oil. In 2025, the EU continued advancing its climate policies targeting a minimum 55% cut in or Removal of Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2030 (January 2025). In the coming 3 to 5 years, regulations will require manufacturers to substitute fossil inputs, improve input traceability, and create a demand for crude tall oil along the certified supply chains.
• Increased Processing Technologies: Advancements in the fields of fractionation, purification, hydrogenation, catalytic conversion technologies, and others will help increase the quality and possibilities of crude tall oil and its derivatives. In 2025, more and more commercial biorefineries incorporated integrated processing systems to better convert feedstocks into multiple product streams (September 2025). In the next 3 to 5 years, crude tall oil will be able to supply the higher quality and higher value chemical products and fuel markets due to advancements in processing technologies.
• Integrated Pulp and Paper Mills and Manufacturing Processes: Kraft-based integrated pulp mills help collect crude tall oil due to the soap-skimming systems and black-liquor processing. In 2025, the production of chemical pulp remained above 180 million tons, retaining a significant industrial base for crude tall oil recovery (October 2025). In the next 3 to 5 years, significant improvements in the recovery and processes of the major pulp and paper mills will reduce costs and reliably provide supply from the major markets.

Some key issues of this Market are:

• Supply of Feedstock: The availability of crude tall oil is related to the production of kraft-pulp, the types of wood used, the operating rates of the mills, and the efficiency of the recovery process. The disruptions in the global pulp market in 2025 caused some mills to either slow down or stop operations, resulting in limited access to certain by-products. Over the next 3 to 5 years, limited growth in feedstock may result in slower growth potential for the market, increased price differences of the product in different regions, and increased competition between producers of renewable fuels and specialty chemicals.
• Price Fluctuations and Market Pressures: The price of crude tall oil is dependent on the production of pulp, the cost of energy and freight, the demand for renewable fuels, and the cost of competing feedstocks, such as used cooking oil and animal fats. In 2025, prices for renewable diesel feedstocks in major markets changed by more than 15% mostly in response to changing policies and market conditions. In the next 3 to 5 years, this may result in increased price uncertainty for potential market entrants and may lead to longer term contracts being negotiated by processors.
• Complexity of Operations and Transportation: Crude tall oil has a variable composition and may contain impurities which makes the oil difficult to store and transport. In 2025, international maritime disruptions pushed some shipping routes to more than 10 days longer and increased the cost of delivered feedstock. Over the next 3 to 5 years, increased sustainability certification, tracing, and other infrastructure requirements may increase compliance costs, especially for smaller participants.

Crude tall oil is likely to experience growth in demand due to the demand for renewable sources of chemicals, biofuels, and bio-materials. Improving technologies, climate policies, the bio-based economy, and the integration of pulp mills will enhance the market's strategic importance. However, growth will be constrained by the reliance on the pulp industry for an unpredictable supply, volatile prices, logistical issues, and complexity in regulations. Companies that control a feedstock, improve conversion, and expand their product ranges will gain market advantage. During the next three to five years, the market will differentiate between competitors based on the ability to provide a flexible service, certify crude tall oil as sustainable, and convert crude tall oil to higher value products.

List of Crude Tall Oil Market Companies

Companies in the market compete on the basis of product quality offered. Major players in this market focus on expanding their manufacturing facilities, R&D investments, infrastructural development, and leverage integration opportunities across the value chain. Through these strategies crude tall oil market companies cater increasing demand, ensure competitive effectiveness, develop innovative products & technologies, reduce production costs, and expand their customer base. Some of the crude tall oil market companies profiled in this report include-

• Kraton Corporation
• Ingevity Corporation
• Metsa
• UPM
• Torgoviy Dom Lesokhimik
• Resitol Chemical Industry
• Pitzavod
• OJSC
• Mondi Group
• Stora Enso

Crude Tall Oil Market by Segment

The study includes a forecast for the global crude tall oil market by type, application, and region.

Crude Tall Oil Market by Type [Value ($B) from 2019 to 2035]:

• Softwood
• Mixed
• Hardwood

Crude Tall Oil Market by Application [Value ($B) from 2019 to 2035]:

• CTO Distillation
• CTO Biofuels
• Others

Crude Tall Oil Market by Region [Value ($B) from 2019 to 2035]:

• North America
• Europe
• Asia Pacific
• The Rest of the World

Country Wise Outlook for the Crude Tall Oil Market

Future pulp mill upgrades, government support for renewable fuels, and biorefinery investments will change the market for crude tall oil. Between 2025 and 2027, producers will focus on developing higher value derivatives, and governments will develop new incentives for low carbon fuels and bio-based chemicals. According to Lucintel's latest assessment, these policies and capacity shifts warrant careful consideration.

• United States: The 2022 U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, renewable fuel integration, and the Clean Fuel incentive will remain in effect through 2027, supporting the use of forest derived feedstocks, including crude tall oil. In June 2025, the U.S. Department of Energy committed $1.7 billion to convert and restart automotive production facilities, which will likely improve biofuel infrastructure within the U.S. over the next three to five years. This will most likely enhance the visibility and attract investment toward the upgrading and production of crude tall oil derivatives.
• China: The integration of crude tall oil will be strengthened by the expansion of China's pulp sector, compared to the Nine Dragons Paper's 2025 planned construction of a 650,000 ton per year Kraft pulp chemical project in Beihai, Guangxi. This will enhance the availability of Kraft pulp and crude tall oil in China, which will be able to support crude tall oil integration in local resin, fatty acid, and fuel production.
• Germany: Germany's Renewable Energy Directive III will strengthen compliance value for waste and residue based feedstocks, including crude tall oil, for a period of 5 years, beginning in 2025. This will increase the demand for certified crude tall oil for refinery and chemical applications.
• India: Expended National Bioenergy Programme; The Indian government has extended its National Bioenergy Programme through March 2026 with an allocated budget of ₹858 crore to facilitate conversion and creation of infrastructure of biomass and biomass. This provides a formal avenue to enforce the creation of domestic forest residue value chains. The supply of crude tall oil will still be linked to the growth of chemical pulp.
• Japan: Environmental investment; In February 2023, Japan's GX policy announced a goal of ¥150 trillion of public and private investment over the next ten years, though the implementation of low-carbon fuels and materials will take place by 2025. The program should motivate refiners and chemical companies to evaluate crude tall oil in their lower-carbon product ranges.

Features of the Global Crude Tall Oil Market

• Market Size Estimates: crude tall oil market size estimation in terms of value ($B).
• Trend and Forecast Analysis: Market trends (2019 to 2026) and forecast (2027 to 2035) by various segments and regions.
• Segmentation Analysis: crude tall oil market size by type, application, and region in terms of value ($B).
• Regional Analysis: crude tall oil market breakdown by North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and Rest of the World.
• Growth Opportunities: Analysis of growth opportunities in different type, application, and regions for the crude tall oil market.
• Strategic Analysis: This includes M&A, new product development, and competitive landscape of the crude tall oil market.

Analysis of competitive intensity of the industry based on Porter's Five Forces model.

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This report answers following 11 key questions:

• Q.1. What are some of the most promising, high-growth opportunities for the crude tall oil market by type (softwood, mixed, and hardwood), application (CTO distillation, CTO biofuels, and others), and region (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and the Rest of the World)?
• Q.2. Which segments will grow at a faster pace and why?
• Q.3. Which region will grow at a faster pace and why?
• Q.4. What are the key factors affecting market dynamics? What are the key challenges and business risks in this market?
• Q.5. What are the business risks and competitive threats in this market?
• Q.6. What are the emerging trends in this market and the reasons behind them?
• Q.7. What are some of the changing demands of customers in the market?
• Q.8. What are the new developments in the market? Which companies are leading these developments?
• Q.9. Who are the major players in this market? What strategic initiatives are key players pursuing for business growth?
• Q.10. What are some of the competing products in this market and how big of a threat do they pose for loss of market share by material or product substitution?
• Q.11. What M&A activity has occurred in the last 6 years and what has its impact been on the industry?

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Market Overview

• 2.1 Background and Classifications
• 2.2 Supply Chain

3. Market Trends & Forecast Analysis

• 3.2 Industry Drivers and Challenges
• 3.3 PESTLE Analysis
• 3.4 Patent Analysis
• 3.5 Regulatory Environment

4. Global Crude Tall Oil Market by Type

• 4.1 Overview
• 4.2 Attractiveness Analysis by Type
• 4.3 Softwood: Trends and Forecast (2019-2035)
• 4.4 Mixed: Trends and Forecast (2019-2035)
• 4.5 Hardwood: Trends and Forecast (2019-2035)

5. Global Crude Tall Oil Market by Application

• 5.1 Overview
• 5.2 Attractiveness Analysis by Application
• 5.3 CTO Distillation: Trends and Forecast (2019-2035)
• 5.4 CTO Biofuels: Trends and Forecast (2019-2035)
• 5.5 Others: Trends and Forecast (2019-2035)

6. Regional Analysis

• 6.1 Overview
• 6.2 Global Crude Tall Oil Market by Region

7. North American Crude Tall Oil Market

• 7.1 Overview
• 7.2 North American Crude Tall Oil Market by Type
• 7.3 North American Crude Tall Oil Market by Application
• 7.4 United States Crude Tall Oil Market
• 7.5 Mexican Crude Tall Oil Market
• 7.6 Canadian Crude Tall Oil Market

8. European Crude Tall Oil Market

• 8.1 Overview
• 8.2 European Crude Tall Oil Market by Type
• 8.3 European Crude Tall Oil Market by Application
• 8.4 German Crude Tall Oil Market
• 8.5 French Crude Tall Oil Market
• 8.6 Spanish Crude Tall Oil Market
• 8.7 Italian Crude Tall Oil Market
• 8.8 United Kingdom Crude Tall Oil Market

9. APAC Crude Tall Oil Market

• 9.1 Overview
• 9.2 APAC Crude Tall Oil Market by Type
• 9.3 APAC Crude Tall Oil Market by Application
• 9.4 Japanese Crude Tall Oil Market
• 9.5 Indian Crude Tall Oil Market
• 9.6 Chinese Crude Tall Oil Market
• 9.7 South Korean Crude Tall Oil Market
• 9.8 Indonesian Crude Tall Oil Market

10. ROW Crude Tall Oil Market

• 10.1 Overview
• 10.2 ROW Crude Tall Oil Market by Type
• 10.3 ROW Crude Tall Oil Market by Application
• 10.4 Middle Eastern Crude Tall Oil Market
• 10.5 South American Crude Tall Oil Market
• 10.6 African Crude Tall Oil Market

11. Competitor Analysis

• 11.1 Product Portfolio Analysis
• 11.2 Operational Integration
• 11.3 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • Competitive Rivalry
  • Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • Threat of Substitutes
  • Threat of New Entrants
• 11.4 Market Share Analysis

12. Opportunities & Strategic Analysis

• 12.1 Value Chain Analysis
• 12.2 Growth Opportunity Analysis
  • 12.2.1 Growth Opportunities by Type
  • 12.2.2 Growth Opportunities by Application
• 12.3 Emerging Trends in the Global Crude Tall Oil Market
• 12.4 Strategic Analysis
  • 12.4.1 New Product Development
  • 12.4.2 Certification and Licensing
  • 12.4.3 Mergers, Acquisitions, Agreements, Collaborations, and Joint Ventures

13. Company Profiles of the Leading Players Across the Value Chain

• 13.1 Competitive Analysis
• 13.2 Kraton Corporation
  • Company Overview
  • Crude Tall Oil Business Overview
  • New Product Development
  • Merger, Acquisition, and Collaboration
  • Certification and Licensing
• 13.3 Ingevity Corporation
  • Company Overview
  • Crude Tall Oil Business Overview
  • New Product Development
  • Merger, Acquisition, and Collaboration
  • Certification and Licensing
• 13.4 Metsa
  • Company Overview
  • Crude Tall Oil Business Overview
  • New Product Development
  • Merger, Acquisition, and Collaboration
  • Certification and Licensing
• 13.5 UPM
  • Company Overview
  • Crude Tall Oil Business Overview
  • New Product Development
  • Merger, Acquisition, and Collaboration
  • Certification and Licensing
• 13.6 Torgoviy Dom Lesokhimik
  • Company Overview
  • Crude Tall Oil Business Overview
  • New Product Development
  • Merger, Acquisition, and Collaboration
  • Certification and Licensing
• 13.7 Resitol Chemical Industry
  • Company Overview
  • Crude Tall Oil Business Overview
  • New Product Development
  • Merger, Acquisition, and Collaboration
  • Certification and Licensing
• 13.8 Pitzavod
  • Company Overview
  • Crude Tall Oil Business Overview
  • New Product Development
  • Merger, Acquisition, and Collaboration
  • Certification and Licensing
• 13.9 OJSC
  • Company Overview
  • Crude Tall Oil Business Overview
  • New Product Development
  • Merger, Acquisition, and Collaboration
  • Certification and Licensing
• 13.10 Mondi Group
  • Company Overview
  • Crude Tall Oil Business Overview
  • New Product Development
  • Merger, Acquisition, and Collaboration
  • Certification and Licensing
• 13.11 Stora Enso
  • Company Overview
  • Crude Tall Oil Business Overview
  • New Product Development
  • Merger, Acquisition, and Collaboration
  • Certification and Licensing

14. Appendix

• 14.1 List of Figures
• 14.2 List of Tables
• 14.3 Research Methodology
• 14.4 Disclaimer
• 14.5 Copyright
• 14.6 Abbreviations and Technical Units
• 14.7 About Us
• 14.8 Contact Us