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소구경 군용 탄약 : 시장 및 기술 예측(-2033년)

Small Calibre Military Ammunition - Market and Technology Forecast to 2033

발행일: 2025년 09월 | 리서치사:

Market Forecast | 페이지 정보: 영문 150 Pages | 배송안내 : 1-2일 (영업일 기준)

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※ 본 상품은 영문 자료로 한글과 영문 목차에 불일치하는 내용이 있을 경우 영문을 우선합니다. 정확한 검토를 위해 영문 목차를 참고해주시기 바랍니다.

소구경 군용 탄약 시장은 수년에 걸쳐 업 사이클에 들어가려고합니다. 우크라이나 전쟁과 관련된 탄약 소비 증가와 NATO의 즉각적인 태세 목표 재설정으로 인해 수요는 평시의 '유지' 수준에서 지속적이고 계획적인 조달 프로그램으로 전환하고 있습니다. 현재 유럽이 이 확대를 주도하고 있으며, 미국도 안정적이고 강력한 수요 부문으로 존재감을 유지하고 있습니다. 이로 인해 공인 공급업체와 투자자에게 견고한 비즈니스 파이프라인이 형성됩니다.

그러나 공급 체제는 여전히 가장 큰 제약 요인입니다. 뇌관, 추진약(예 : 니트로셀룰로오스), 황동, 숙련 노동자 등 요소의 병목이 생산 능력을 제한하고 있으며, 또 새로운 약용 조리개, 뇌관 제조, 탄두 조립, LAP(장탄 라인) 등의 생산 설비가 안정된 인정 생산 단계에 이르기까지는 통상 1-3년이 필요합니다. 이러한 상황 하에서 신속하게 행동할 수 있는 기업에 있어서, 이 수급의 불균형은 가격 상승, 수주 잔여의 가시화, 장기적인 고객 관계의 구축이라고 하는 매력적인 기회를 창출하고 있습니다.

성공을 위한 전략의 중심은 확장 가능한 탄력성이며, 구체적으로는 다년간의 프레임워크 계약이나 예측 가능한 훈련 부하량에 의해 생산 라인을 계속 가동하는 것, 5.56mm/7.62mm/9.50mm 및 6.8×51mm 탄계통을 효율적으로 전환할 수 있다 유연한 공작 설비, 뇌관·화약·황동의 수직 통합 또는 장기 조달 계약의 확립, 자동화, 생산 수율 관리, OEE 등의 생산성 향상책의 도입, NATO/STANAG 규격에의 준거 및 상호 운용성은 수출 적성과 인증 스피드를 좌우하는 중요한 차별화 요인이 되고 있습니다.

시장 구조는 앞으로도 각국이 탄약의 자급자족을 추구하기 때문에 단편적인 상태가 계속될 전망입니다. 따라서 제휴, 합작, M&A 등 전략적인 동향이 펼쳐질 여지가 있습니다. 한편, 무역마찰이나 관세정책이 원재료 비용을 밀어 올려 국경을 넘은 조달을 복잡화시키고 있으며, 공급업체의 다양화, 지역화, 생산거점의 분산, 이중인증(dual-qualification) 체제, 장기적인 에너지·추진약 계약을 확보하는 사업자가 유리한 입장에 서 있습니다. 경영자에게 이것은 분명한 메시지입니다. 지금은 강한 상승 국면이며, 공급 능력이 한정되어 있습니다. 따라서 조기에 움직이고 탄력적이고 규제 적합성이 높고 비용 경쟁력 있는 체제를 구축한 기업이야말로 시장의 주도권을 쥐게 된다고 생각됩니다.

이 보고서는 소구경 군용 탄약의 조달 경로를 분석하고 우크라이나 전쟁이 시장 구조를 어떻게 형성하는지 평가합니다. 본 설문조사는 시장 규모의 모델링과 조달 기회에 대한 상세한 인사이트를 제공하며, 세계 각 지역의 기회 범위, 규모 및 타임라인을 체계적으로 매핑합니다. 또, 현시점에 있어서의 소구경 군용 탄약 시장의 비즈니스 환경을 명확하게 파악해, 향후 어떠한 전개가 예측되는지에 대한 이해를 깊게 하는 내용이 되고 있습니다.

게시 기업

BAE Systems
Day & Zimmermann
DynCorp International
Federal
FN Browning
FN Herstal
General Dynamics - Ordnance & Tactical Systems
General Dynamics - Ordnance & Tactical Systems Canada
GGG(Giraite Ginluotes Gamykla)
JPEO A&A - Joint Program Executive Office for Armaments & Ammunition
Kalashnikov Group
Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace AS
Nammo
Nibe Defence & Aerospace

Nitrotol OU
Olin/Winchester
Patria Oy
PGZ Mesko
Remington
Rheinmetall Expal
Rostec
SIA Ammunity
Sig Sauer
Speer
Swedish Astor Group AB
Techcrim
The Kinetic Group
Tula Ammo

The small calibre military ammunition market is entering a multi-year upcycle. Elevated consumption linked to the war in Ukraine and the resetting of NATO readiness targets have shifted demand from peacetime "sustain" levels to durable, programme-based buys. Europe currently leads the expansion, with the United States remaining a strong, steady segment-together underpinning a robust pipeline for qualified suppliers and investors.

Supply remains the gating factor. Bottlenecks in primers, energetics (e.g., nitrocellulose), brass, and skilled labour are constraining output, while new case-draw, primer, bullet-assembly and LAP lines typically require one to three years to reach stable, qualified production. For businesses prepared to act, this imbalance creates attractive pricing, backlog visibility, and an opportunity to lock in long-term customer relationships.

Winning strategies centre on scalable resilience: multi-year framework agreements and predictable training-load volumes to keep lines warm; flexible tooling to swing efficiently across 5.56/7.62/9/.50 and 6.8x51 families; vertical integration or long-term offtakes in primers, powders and brass; and productivity levers such as automation, yield management and OEE. Interoperability and NATO/STANAG conformance remain essential differentiators for exportability and speed to qualification.

Market structure will stay fragmented as nations pursue ammunition autonomy, opening room for partnerships, JVs, and targeted M&A. At the same time, trade frictions and tariff regimes raise input costs and complicate cross-border sourcing-favouring operators that diversify suppliers, regionalise footprints, dual-qualify materials and secure long-dated energetics and energy contracts. For business leaders, the message is clear: the cycle is strong, capacity is scarce, and early movers that build resilient, compliant, cost-competitive platforms will set the pace.

This study examines procurement pathways for small-calibre military ammunition and assesses how the war in Ukraine is reshaping the market. The scale and value of the opportunity favour both new entrants and well-established manufacturers seeking to expand share. Even if the conflict ends in the near term, enduring security requirements and stockpile replenishment will sustain robust demand for years to come.

The study provides a model of the market size, in-depth insights procurement opportunities, mapping out the scope, scale, and timelines of opportunities worldwide. It also offers a solid understanding of the current situation in the small calibre military ammunition business landscape and what should be expected for the future.

Covered in this study:

Overview: A strong insight of the Small Military Ammunition market in the military market during 2025-2033, including highlights of the demand drivers, trends, and challenges. It also provides a snapshot of the spending with respect to regions as well as segments and sheds light on the emergence of new technologies.
Market Dynamics: Snapshots into the technological developments in the small calibre military ammunition market. It also analyses the market landscape in key regions, how that is shaped by the war in Ukraine and the political and regulatory efforts undertaken to address a series of issues.
Segment Analysis: Insights into the various calibres, end-use and regions from a segmental perspective and a detailed analysis of factors influencing the market for each segment.
Regional Analysis: Insights into the systems market from a regional perspective and a detailed analysis of factors influencing the market for each region.
Competitive landscape Analysis: Analysis of the competitive landscape of this industry. It provides an overview of key companies, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a SWOT analysis.

Segmentation

The market is segmented by Region and Calibre of the ammunition.

Region

North America
Europe
Asia Pacific
Middle East & Africa
Latin America

Calibres

5.45mm
5.56mm
5.7mm
6.5mm
6.8mm
7.62mm
8.6mm (.338)
9mm
0.45APC (11.43mm)
12.7mm (.50 cal.)

Reasons to buy:

This report provides a global view of efforts to scale small-calibre military ammunition production, both to meet Ukraine's wartime consumption and to replenish national stockpiles.
It identifies and rigorously analyses the forces reshaping the market, including policy decisions, cross-industry collaborations, supply-chain redesign, and the availability of critical raw materials.
It maps regional production profiles and assistance flows to Ukraine, clarifying how these dynamics are redirecting procurement worldwide.
Finally, it highlights the principal opportunities and risks so decision-makers can act with confidence to grow their businesses.

Companies Listed:

BAE Systems
Day & Zimmermann
DynCorp International
Federal
FN Browning
FN Herstal
General Dynamics - Ordnance & Tactical Systems
General Dynamics - Ordnance & Tactical Systems Canada
GGG (Giraite Ginluotes Gamykla)
JPEO A&A - Joint Program Executive Office for Armaments & Ammunition
Kalashnikov Group
Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace AS
Nammo
Nibe Defence & Aerospace

Nitrotol OU
Olin/Winchester
Patria Oy
PGZ Mesko
Remington
Rheinmetall Expal
Rostec
SIA Ammunity
Sig Sauer
Speer
Swedish Astor Group AB
Techcrim
The Kinetic Group
Tula Ammo

1. Executive Summary

1.1. Trends and Insights
1.2. Main Findings
- 1.2.1. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Region
- 1.2.2. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Calibre
1.3. Key Conclusions

2. Introduction

2.1. Scope
2.2. Definitions
2.3. Methodology
2.4. Who will benefit from this study?

3. Technologies and Developments

3.1. Technology overview
3.2. Types of small calibre ammunition
3.3. Ammunition without lead - green ammunition
3.4. A new calibre for the US military - 6.8mm
3.5. Calibre modularity in rifles
3.6. Polymer and metallic lightweight ammunition
3.7. Technologies to manage inventories
3.8. Anti-drone munition
3.9. Technological developments in Russia and China

4. Critical Raw Materials

5. Market Overview

5.1. Introduction
5.2. Small calibre ammunition market volume distribution over forecast period by Region
5.3. Competitive landscape
5.4. Europe
- 5.4.1. European Union
- 5.4.2. EU Instruments: SAFE, ASAP and EDIRPA
- 5.4.3. Baltic region
- 5.4.4. Nordic region
- 5.4.5. France
- 5.4.6. Poland
5.5. North America
- 5.5.1. United States
- 5.5.2. Canada
5.6. Overview of the Chinese and Russian markets

6. Market Dynamics and Forecast Factors

6.1. Market segmentation
6.2. Drivers
6.3. Trends
6.4. Opportunities
6.5. Challenges
6.6. Forecast Factors and Notes

7. Country Analysis

7.1. Overview
7.2. North America
- 7.2.1. United States

8. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region

8.1. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market by Region overview
8.2. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market Region by Calibre overview
- 8.2.1. North America market by Calibre overview
- 8.2.2. Europe market by Calibre overview
- 8.2.3. Asia Pacific market by Calibre overview
- 8.2.4. Middle-East & Africa market by Calibre overview
- 8.2.5. Latin America market by Calibre overview

9. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre

9.1. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market by Calibre overview
9.2. Small Calibre Military Ammunition market Calibre by Region overview
- 9.2.1. 5.45 mm market by Region overview
- 9.2.2. 5.56 mm market by Region overview
- 9.2.3. 5.7 mm market by Region overview
- 9.2.4. 6.5 mm market by Region overview
- 9.2.5. 6.8 mm market by Region overview
- 9.2.6. 7.62 mm market by Region overview
- 9.2.7. 8.6 mm market by Region overview
- 9.2.8. 9 mm market by Region overview
- 9.2.9. 11.43 mm market by Region overview
- 9.2.10. 12.7 mm market by Region overview
- 9.2.11. 12 Gauge market by Region overview

10. Opportunity Analysis

10.1. Introduction
10.2. Compound Growth Rates
- 10.2.1. By Region
- 10.2.2. By Calibre

11. Companies

11.1. BAE Systems Plc
- 11.1.1. Introduction
- 11.1.2. Products and services
- 11.1.3. Recent Contracts
- 11.1.4. SWOT Analysis
11.2. Beretta Holding
- 11.2.1. Introduction
- 11.2.2. Products and services
- 11.2.3. Recent contracts and developments
- 11.2.4. SWOT Analysis
11.3. Czechoslovak Group
- 11.3.1. Introduction
- 11.3.2. Products and services
- 11.3.3. Recent contracts and developments
- 11.3.4. SWOT Analysis
11.4. EDGE Group PJSC
- 11.4.1. Introduction
- 11.4.2. SWOT Analysis
11.5. FN Herstal
- 11.5.1. Introduction
- 11.5.2. Products and services
- 11.5.3. Recent contracts and developments
- 11.5.4. SWOT Analysis
11.6. GGG - Giraite Ginluotes Gamykla
- 11.6.1. Introduction
11.7. MKE (Makine ve Kimya Endustrisi) Inc.
- 11.7.1. Introduction
- 11.7.2. Products and services
- 11.7.3. Recent developments and contracts
- 11.7.4. SWOT Analysis
11.8. Nammo AS
- 11.8.1. Introduction
- 11.8.2. Products and services
- 11.8.3. Recent developments
- 11.8.4. Recent Contracts
- 11.8.5. SWOT Analysis
11.9. Olin Winchester
- 11.9.1. Introduction
- 11.9.2. Products and services
- 11.9.3. Recent Contracts
- 11.9.4. SWOT Analysis
11.10. PGZ Group S.A.- Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa
- 11.10.1. Introduction
- 11.10.2. Products and services
- 11.10.3. Recent developments and contracts
- 11.10.4. Recent Contracts
- 11.10.5. SWOT Analysis
11.11. Poongsan
- 11.11.1. Introduction
- 11.11.2. Products and services
- 11.11.3. SWOT Analysis
11.12. SIA Ammunity
- 11.12.1. Introduction
- 11.12.2. Small Calibre Military Ammunition
11.13. Sig Sauer
- 11.13.1. Introduction
- 11.13.2. Products and services
- 11.13.3. Recent developments
- 11.13.4. Recent Contracts
- 11.13.5. SWOT Analysis
11.14. Thales
- 11.14.1. Introduction
- 11.14.2. Products and Services
- 11.14.3. Recent Developments
- 11.14.4. SWOT Analysis

12. Results and Conclusions

13. About Market Forecast

13.1. General
13.2. Contact us
13.3. Disclaimer
13.4. License

Appendix A: Companies Mentioned

Appendix B: Abbreviations

List of figures

Figure 1: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Region
Figure 2: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Calibre
Figure 3: Barrett Firearms M22 sniper rifle
Figure 4: Polymer-case 0.50" ammunition
Figure 5: 5.45mm pellet anti-drone munition
Figure 6: Critical Raw Materials producing countries
Figure 7: Critical Raw Materials dependence [%] and volume [mt] by producing countries
Figure 8: Market volumes over the forecast period per region
Figure 9: European defence planning path
Figure 10: The Sig Sauer M7 rifle
Figure 11: US Army soldiers firing an M240B machine gun
Figure 12: Market segmentation Small Calibre market
Figure 13: Sig Sauer's 6.8mm calibre rounds
Figure 14: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Figure 15: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region %
Figure 16: North America Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 17: North America - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 18: Europe Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 19: Europe - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 20: Asia Pacific Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 21: Asia Pacific - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 22: Middle-East & Africa Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 23: Middle-East & Africa - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 24: Latin America Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 25: Latin America - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre
Figure 26: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
Figure 27: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre %
Figure 28: 5.45 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 29: 5.45 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 30: 5.56 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 31: 5.56 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 32: 5.7 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 33: 5.7 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 34: 6.5 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 35: 6.5 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 36: 6.8 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 37: 6.8 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 38: 7.62 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 39: 7.62 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 40: 8.6 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 41: 8.6 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 42: 9 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 43: 9 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 44: 11.43 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 45: 11.43 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 46: 12.7 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 47: 12.7 mm - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 48: 12 Gauge Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 49: 12 Gauge - Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region
Figure 50: Small Calibre Military Ammunition Size by Region
Figure 51: Small Calibre Military Ammunition CAGR by Region in US$ millions
Figure 52: Small Calibre Military Ammunition Size by Calibre
Figure 53: Small Calibre Military Ammunition CAGR by Calibre in US$ millions

List of tables

Table 1: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Region in US$ millions
Table 2: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market summary by Calibre in US$ millions
Table 3: Critical Raw Materials used in Small Calibre Military Ammunition
Table 4: Critical Raw Materials - Annual production from low-risk countries (LRC) versus required production for Small Calibre Military Ammunition
Table 5: Market activity
Table 6: Country groupings in market sizing
Table 7: Modelling per region.
Table 8: Small Calibre Military Ammunition Market Share by Country
Table 9: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 10: North America Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
Table 11: Europe Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
Table 12: Asia Pacific Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
Table 13: Middle-East & Africa Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
Table 14: Latin America Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
Table 15: Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Calibre [US$ millions]
Table 16: 5.45 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 17: 5.56 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 18: 5.7 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 19: 6.5 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 20: 6.8 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 21: 7.62 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 22: 8.6 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 23: 9 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 24: 11.43 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 25: 12.7 mm Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]
Table 26: 12 Gauge Small Calibre Military Ammunition market to 2033 by Region [US$ millions]

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소구경 군용 탄약 : 시장 및 기술 예측(-2033년)

Small Calibre Military Ammunition - Market and Technology Forecast to 2033

게시 기업

목차

제1장 주요 요약

제2장 소개

제3장 기술과 개발

제4장 중요한 원재료

제5장 시장 개요

제6장 시장 역학과 예측요인

제7장 국가별 분석

제8장 소구경 군용 탄약 시장 : 지역별

제9장 소구경 군용 탄약 시장 : 칼리버별

제10장 기회 분석

제11장 기업

제12장 결과·결론

제13장 시장 예측에 대해서

부록 A : 언급된 기업

부록 B : 약어

Market forecast by Region and Ammunition Calibre. Country Analysis, Market and Technology Overview including Critical Raw Materials, Opportunity Analysis, and Leading Company Profiles