전기 트럭 : 시장 점유율 분석, 업계 동향 및 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the electric truck market size is estimated at USD 19.31 billion in 2026, and is expected to reach USD 72.11 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 30.15% during the forecast period (2026-2031).

This report is Segmented by Propulsion Type (BEV, FCEV, and PHEV), Truck Type (Light, Medium, Heavy, and Tractor-Trailer), Application (Logistics, Municipal, Construction, Retail, and Utility), Range, Battery Capacity, Motor Architecture, and Geography. Market Forecasts are in Value (USD) and Volume (Units).

Global Electric Truck Market Trends and Insights

Battery-Pack Price Declines Below USD 100/kWh Threshold

In recent years, lithium-ion pack prices have significantly decreased in the electric truck market and are expected to continue declining, reaching cost parity with diesel tractors in the near future. Chinese cell manufacturers have driven this reduction, achieving notable advancements in energy density with high-volume LFP chemistries. Fleet operators are now experiencing faster payback periods on medium-duty urban routes, significantly shortening replacement cycles that were historically much longer. Recently, PepsiCo's operations in California reported substantially lower energy costs per mile for its Tesla Semi fleet compared to diesel Class 8 tractors. Additionally, LFP has captured a significant share of new electric truck battery capacity, demonstrating improved cycle life and reduced lifetime capital intensity.

Tightening CO2 & NOx Emission Mandates for Heavy Vehicles

Starting in the late 2020s, the European Union's Euro 7 limits will significantly reduce heavy-duty NOx emissions in the electric truck market. Additionally, the EU mandates a substantial reduction in fleet-wide CO2 emissions by mid-century . In the U.S., the EPA's Phase 3 rule requires OEMs to ensure a significant portion of new Class 8 sales are zero-emission within the next decade. Non-compliance comes with a hefty financial penalty per tractor. Meanwhile, in China, the National VI-b standards will apply to all trucks over a specific weight threshold starting in the near future . Furthermore, a stringent limit on urban freight CO2 emissions is set for the end of the decade. In a proactive move, Volvo Group reported selling a notable percentage of its trucks as zero-emission in Europe during the current year, as fleets rushed to meet the Euro 7 deadline. Adding to the regulatory landscape, mandatory Scope 3 reporting under ISO 14083 tightens the grip of regulations on corporate procurement decisions.

Sparse Megawatt-Class Charging Infrastructure

By early 2026, only a limited number of Megawatt Charging System (MCS) stations were operational globally in the electric truck market, lagging significantly behind the rollout of vehicles. The Daimler-Volvo joint venture plans to establish a significant number of high-performance charging points by 2027, but this will only service a small portion of the primary freight corridors. In the U.S., while federal NEVI funds allocated substantial financial resources, only a few charging sites became operational by December 2025, hindered by permitting delays. Additionally, interconnections at depots are causing further setbacks; National Grid ESO has indicated extensive wait times for connections at major logistics centers in the U.K. As a result, fleets are overspecifying their battery packs, significantly increasing unit costs.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Corporate Fleet-Decarbonization Pledges (Scope 3 Focus)
2. Growing Green-Freight Contract Premiums from Shippers
3. High Up-Front Vehicle Cost vs. Diesel in Emerging Markets

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Battery-electric trucks commanded a 55.61% share in 2025, underpinned by maturing urban charging networks and dependable 250 km daily cycles. Fuel-cell platforms are set for a 30.17% CAGR through 2031 as the United States funds seven hydrogen hubs with 200 heavy-truck stations planned by 2030. In 2024, Nikola rolled out several Class 8 fuel-cell tractors, highlighting a burgeoning demand for vehicles capable of extended-range duties. Operators in regions with limited infrastructure are gravitating towards plug-in hybrids, which offer a diesel backup. Notably, Volvo's FH Electric hybrid combines a moderate electric range with an additional diesel margin. While hydrogen prices in California remain significantly higher than diesel when adjusted for energy parity, declining electrolyzer costs hint at a potential substantial reduction by the end of the decade. The electric truck landscape is evolving, with batteries leading the charge in last-mile deliveries, while hydrogen is carving a niche in long-haul transport.

Secondary dynamics are bolstering hydrogen's rise. European transporters prioritize swift refueling to optimize driver hours, and looming CO2 regulations threaten penalties for payload reductions due to hefty batteries. In a significant move, Daimler's GenH2 fuel-cell prototype successfully completed an extensive pilot run in late 2025, addressing durability concerns. Concurrently, advancements in lithium-iron-phosphate technology are solidifying battery packs' dominance on high-volume routes with shorter distances, ensuring battery-electric vehicles remain pivotal in bustling urban settings.

Heavy-duty models above 12 tonnes represented 43.47% of revenue in 2025 in the electric truck market and will post a 30.19% CAGR through 2031 as California, New York, and the EU demand 40-50% zero-emission Class 8 sales by 2032. By late 2025, Daimler's eActros 600, equipped with a large-capacity LFP pack and boasting an extensive real-world range, garnered significant pre-orders. Platforms in the medium-duty range are securing municipal and urban freight contracts; in 2025, BYD made a mark in North America, delivering a substantial number of units and clinching city waste-collection tenders. Light trucks, benefiting from a cost edge in last-mile services, saw Rivian's EDV-700 achieve impressive uptime over an extensive distance. While the large-capacity batteries on long-haul tractors impose a noticeable reduction in capacity due to payload penalties, the trade-off is deemed acceptable as green-freight premiums compensate for the lost tonnage.

Industry players are eyeing vocational niches as the next frontier. Tipper bodies, utility chassis, and fire-service rigs are in the spotlight, due to their duty cycles syncing perfectly with depot charging. Meanwhile, tractor-trailer setups are pursuing megawatt charging innovations to minimize downtime. The pace of heavy-duty adoption is poised to dictate the trajectory of the electric truck market's expansion into other classes.

Geography Analysis

In 2025, Europe held a significant share of the electric truck market with 36.77%, supported by the unified compliance signals of Euro 7 and the EU's CO2 framework. By the end of the year, Germany, France, and the Netherlands had made substantial progress in installing high-power chargers, ensuring adequate coverage for models like the eActros 600 and FH Electric. Norway's policies, including toll exemptions and partial funding of purchase prices, significantly boosted the adoption of zero-emission trucks, which formed a notable portion of new registrations. In contrast, the U.K. faced challenges with depot electrification due to prolonged grid connection timelines, which slowed the transition for large fleets despite the availability of strong incentives.

Asia Pacific, driven by China's large-scale deployment of electric trucks under its regulatory framework and subsidy programs, is emerging as a strong competitor to Europe in terms of volume. Japan's substantial investment in hydrogen infrastructure supports Hino's fuel-cell development plans. Meanwhile, India's momentum slowed following the expiration of its subsidy program, as the cost of electric trucks remained significantly higher than diesel alternatives. In Australia, government initiatives funded the installation of depot chargers, facilitating pilot projects for interstate freight operations.

North America benefits from federal incentives and state-level regulations mandating a higher share of zero-emission truck sales in the coming years. Tesla's delivery of electric trucks to major corporations highlighted the cost advantages of these vehicles in terms of energy efficiency. Canada's financial incentives have also encouraged the deployment of electric trucks along key logistics routes. The Middle East and Africa logs the fastest 30.23% CAGR through 2031 in the electric truck market, driven by large-scale orders and ambitious government targets for zero-emission commercial fleets. South Africa is testing battery-powered trucks in mining operations, despite potential challenges from proposed import duties. In South America, policy differences are shaping the market: Brazil's tax policies have increased vehicle prices, while Chile's funding for mining fleets is accelerating adoption in the region.

1. BYD Auto Co. Ltd.
2. Daimler Truck Holding AG
3. Volvo Group
4. Scania AB
5. PACCAR Inc.
6. Navistar International Corp.
7. Isuzu Motors Ltd.
8. Hino Motors Ltd.
9. Dongfeng Motor Corporation
10. Groupe Renault
11. Tesla Inc.
12. Nikola Corp.
13. Rivian Automotive
14. Hyundai Motor Co.
15. Tata Motors Ltd.
16. MAN Truck & Bus SE
17. FAW Group
18. Foton Motor
19. Ashok Leyland
20. Quantron AG

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Key Industry Trends

• 4.1 Urbanization, Population & Vehicle/Transit Demand
• 4.2 EV Penetration in Truck Market
• 4.3 Fuel vs Electricity Price Spread (Per km, ICE vs EV)
• 4.4 EV vs ICE Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) Gap
• 4.5 Financing & Ownership Models (Loans, Leasing, Subscription)
• 4.6 Battery Chemistry Mix & Pack Energy Density (LFP vs NMC etc.)
• 4.7 Home, Workplace & Public Charger Access / Density
• 4.8 Fast-Charging Network Coverage & Power Bands
• 4.9 Alternative Fuels Infrastructure (Hydrogen for FCEVs)
• 4.10 Subsidy & Consumer Incentive Value (Purchase, Tax, Toll/Parking Benefits)
• 4.11 OEM EV Line-up & Model Pipeline
• 4.12 Value-Chain & Distribution-Channel Analysis
• 4.13 Regulatory, Fiscal & Industrial Policy Framework

5 Market Landscape

• 5.1 Market Overview
• 5.2 Market Drivers
  • 5.2.1 Battery-Pack Price Declines Below USD 100/Kwh Threshold
  • 5.2.2 Tightening CO2 & NOX Emission Mandates for Heavy Vehicles
  • 5.2.3 Corporate Fleet-Decarbonization Pledges (Scope 3 Focus)
  • 5.2.4 Growing "Green-Freight" Contract Premiums from Shippers
  • 5.2.5 Dynamic Wireless Charging Pilots on Key Logistics Corridors
  • 5.2.6 Expanded Mining-Site Electrification Grants in Latam
• 5.3 Market Restraints
  • 5.3.1 Sparse Megawatt-Class Charging Infrastructure
  • 5.3.2 High Up-Front Vehicle Cost Vs Diesel in Emerging Markets
  • 5.3.3 Grid-Connection Delays at Large Depot Sites
  • 5.3.4 Nickel & Manganese Supply-Chain Volatility
• 5.4 Value / Supply-Chain Analysis
• 5.5 Regulatory Landscape
• 5.6 Technological Outlook
• 5.7 Porter's Five Forces
  • 5.7.1 Competitive Rivalry
  • 5.7.2 Threat of New Entrants
  • 5.7.3 Threat of Substitutes
  • 5.7.4 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 5.7.5 Bargaining Power of Buyers

6 Market Size & Growth Forecasts (Value (USD) and Volume (Units))

• 6.1 By Propulsion Type
  • 6.1.1 Battery-Electric (BEV)
  • 6.1.2 Fuel-Cell Electric (FCEV)
  • 6.1.3 Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV)
• 6.2 By Truck Type
  • 6.2.1 Light Truck (Less than or equal to 3.5 t GVW)
  • 6.2.2 Medium-Duty Truck (3.6-12 t)
  • 6.2.3 Heavy-Duty Truck (More than 12 t)
  • 6.2.4 Tractor-Trailer
• 6.3 By Application
  • 6.3.1 Logistics & Parcel
  • 6.3.2 Municipal Services (Waste, Street-sweep)
  • 6.3.3 Construction & Mining
  • 6.3.4 Retail & FMCG Delivery
  • 6.3.5 Utility & Other Industrial
• 6.4 By Range
  • 6.4.1 Less than 150 km
  • 6.4.2 150 - 300 km
  • 6.4.3 301 - 500 km
  • 6.4.4 More than 500 km
• 6.5 By Battery Capacity
  • 6.5.1 Less than 150 kWh
  • 6.5.2 150 - 300 kWh
  • 6.5.3 301 - 500 kWh
  • 6.5.4 More than 500 kWh
• 6.6 By Motor Architecture
  • 6.6.1 Single-Motor
  • 6.6.2 Dual-Motor
  • 6.6.3 Tri/Quad-Motor
• 6.7 By Region
  • 6.7.1 North America
    • 6.7.1.1 United States
    • 6.7.1.2 Canada
    • 6.7.1.3 Rest of North America
  • 6.7.2 South America
    • 6.7.2.1 Brazil
    • 6.7.2.2 Argentina
    • 6.7.2.3 Chile
    • 6.7.2.4 Colombia
    • 6.7.2.5 Rest of South America
  • 6.7.3 Europe
    • 6.7.3.1 Germany
    • 6.7.3.2 France
    • 6.7.3.3 United Kingdom
    • 6.7.3.4 Italy
    • 6.7.3.5 Spain
    • 6.7.3.6 Netherlands
    • 6.7.3.7 Norway
    • 6.7.3.8 Sweden
    • 6.7.3.9 Russia
    • 6.7.3.10 Rest of Europe
  • 6.7.4 Asia Pacific
    • 6.7.4.1 China
    • 6.7.4.2 Japan
    • 6.7.4.3 India
    • 6.7.4.4 South Korea
    • 6.7.4.5 Australia
    • 6.7.4.6 New Zealand
    • 6.7.4.7 Indonesia
    • 6.7.4.8 Thailand
    • 6.7.4.9 Singapore
    • 6.7.4.10 Rest of Asia Pacific
  • 6.7.5 Middle East and Africa
    • 6.7.5.1 Saudi Arabia
    • 6.7.5.2 United Arab Emirates
    • 6.7.5.3 Turkey
    • 6.7.5.4 Israel
    • 6.7.5.5 South Africa
    • 6.7.5.6 Nigeria
    • 6.7.5.7 Egypt
    • 6.7.5.8 Kenya
    • 6.7.5.9 Rest of Middle East and Africa

7 Competitive Landscape

• 7.1 Market Concentration
• 7.2 Strategic Moves
• 7.3 Market Share Analysis
• 7.4 Company Profiles (includes Global Level Overview, Market Level Overview, Core Segments, Financials as Available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for Key Companies, Products and Services, SWOT Analysis, and Recent Developments)
  • 7.4.1 BYD Auto Co. Ltd.
  • 7.4.2 Daimler Truck Holding AG
  • 7.4.3 Volvo Group
  • 7.4.4 Scania AB
  • 7.4.5 PACCAR Inc.
  • 7.4.6 Navistar International Corp.
  • 7.4.7 Isuzu Motors Ltd.
  • 7.4.8 Hino Motors Ltd.
  • 7.4.9 Dongfeng Motor Corporation
  • 7.4.10 Groupe Renault
  • 7.4.11 Tesla Inc.
  • 7.4.12 Nikola Corp.
  • 7.4.13 Rivian Automotive
  • 7.4.14 Hyundai Motor Co.
  • 7.4.15 Tata Motors Ltd.
  • 7.4.16 MAN Truck & Bus SE
  • 7.4.17 FAW Group
  • 7.4.18 Foton Motor
  • 7.4.19 Ashok Leyland
  • 7.4.20 Quantron AG

8 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook

• 8.1 White-space & Unmet-Need Assessment

9 Appendix

• 9.1 Global Overview
• 9.2 Porter's Five Forces Framework (detailed tables)
• 9.3 Global Value-Chain Analysis
• 9.4 Market Dynamics (Detailed DROs)
• 9.5 Sources & References
• 9.6 List of Tables & Figures
• 9.7 Primary Insights
• 9.8 Data Pack
• 9.9 Glossary of Terms

10 Key Strategic Questions for CEOs