2세대 바이오연료 : 시장 점유율 분석, 업계 동향 및 통계, 성장 예측(2025-2030년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the second generation biofuels market size is estimated at USD 15.34 billion in 2025, and is expected to reach USD 45.12 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 24.08% during the forecast period (2025-2030).

This report is Segmented by Feedstock (Lignocellulosic Biomass, Agricultural Residues, Forestry Residues, and More), Fuel Type (Cellulosic Ethanol, Biodiesel, Renewable Diesel, Bio-Butanol, Sustainable Aviation Fuel, and More), End-Use (Road Transportation, Aviation, Marine, and Industrial and Power), and Geography (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, South America, and Middle East and Africa).

Global Second Generation Biofuels Market Trends and Insights

Government Mandates & Blending Targets

Regulations in the EU, UK, Japan, and Singapore have removed demand uncertainty by establishing hard blending floors that exclude high-ILUC feedstocks. Doubled counting for advanced molecules lifts price realizations, encouraging capital deployment. Combined mandates exceed 15 million tonnes annually, equivalent to nearly half the 2024 global output. The mechanisms also enable credit stacking with carbon markets, widening project IRR cushions. Producers prioritize jurisdictions with clear compliance timelines because lenders assign lower risk premiums to such markets. The alignment of Asian and Western policies gives the second-generation biofuels market a globally harmonized baseline for the first time.

Decarbonization Push in Aviation (SAF Demand)

Airlines have signed binding offtake deals surpassing 60 billion gallons through 2030. SAF currently commands 2-4x the price of fossil jet fuel, but airlines accept the premium to safeguard slot access at airports imposing green-fuel quotas. ReFuelEU ratchets requirements to 63% by 2050, creating a long visibility window. United Airlines alone has contracted 1.5 billion gallons, catalyzing bankable project pipelines. These commitments redefine SAF from an ESG gesture to a compliance imperative, fundamentally shifting capital flows into the second-generation biofuels market.

High CAPEX & Scale-Up Risk of Cellulosic Biorefineries

Greenfield plants cost USD 200-300 million, with mega projects such as USA BioEnergy's USD 2.8 billion Texas complex raising financing barriers. Lenders demand 20-30% contingency buffers to cover enzyme variability and feedstock heterogeneity. Thus, equity tickets are often restricted to oil majors, reducing competitive diversity.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Cost Reductions via Enzyme & Pretreatment Advances
2. Abundant Lignocellulosic Residue Availability
3. Fragmented Feedstock Supply Logistics

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

The second-generation biofuels market size for lignocellulosic routes is USD 6.04 billion in 2024, equal to 39.4% of overall revenue. Residue accessibility, mature pretreatment know-how, and co-location with grain belts keep the segment resilient, though seasonal bunching of corn stover and wheat straw necessitates large storage silos that push capex upward. Forestry offcuts supply a year-round alternative but require chipped-wood logistics solutions, adding 5-7 USD per ton. Municipal solid waste is becoming a credible EU feedstock after policy relaxation frees 44 million tons for fuel applications.

Algae contributes a much smaller base yet records a 33.4% CAGR, poised to outpace all residue classes from 2025 onward. Synthetic-biology improvements triple lipid productivity, while closed-loop photobioreactors cut land demand to one-tenth of open ponds. Country incentives in Singapore and the UAE now reimburse up to 30% of capex for seawater-based algae farms, narrowing the cost gap with residue routes. Multifeedstock flexibility is therefore emerging as a procurement hedge for refiners that aim to withstand future carbon score differentials and certification audits.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Feedstock
  • Lignocellulosic Biomass
  • Agricultural Residues
  • Forestry Residues
  • Algae
  • Municipal Solid Waste
• By Fuel Type
  • Cellulosic Ethanol
  • Biodiesel (FAME)
  • Renewable Diesel (HVO)
  • Bio-DME
  • Bio-Butanol
  • Sustainable Aviation Fuel (ATJ, HEFA)
• By End-Use
  • Road Transportation
  • Aviation
  • Marine
  • Industrial and Power
• By Geography
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Mexico
  • Europe
    • United Kingdom
    • Germany
    • France
    • Spain
    • Nordic Countries
    • Russia
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia-Pacific
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • ASEAN Countries
    • Australia and New Zealand
    • Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Colombia
    • Rest of South America
  • Middle East and Africa
    • United Arab Emirates
    • Saudi Arabia
    • South Africa
    • Egypt
    • Rest of Middle East and Africa

Geography Analysis

North America leads with 40.2% share, strengthened by the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard and USD 1.01 per gallon cellulosic credit. The region's agricultural heartland provides dense residue catchments that minimize haulage. Clean Fuel Regulations in Canada add incremental pull, while Mexico's nascent mandates open a contiguous logistics corridor from Manitoba to Veracruz. Yet prior scale-up misses temper investor appetites, compelling innovators like Gevo and LanzaTech to lock in sovereign-backed loan guarantees before final investment decisions.

Asia-Pacific exhibits the highest 29.8% CAGR and is expected to almost match North America in revenue by 2030. Japan's 10% SAF rule, Singapore's 1% biofuel obligation, and China's 50,000-ton output target underpin the policy framework. Feedstock diversity, from Indonesian palm empty fruit bunches to Indian rice straw, reduces supply risk. Refining giants in South Korea and Malaysia are aggressively converting hydrocrackers to HVO, a move supported by lower labor and construction costs that trim capex 15-20% relative to Western builds.

Europe maintains a regulated though uncertain setting. RED III boosts the advanced quota to 5.5%, but anti-dumping screens on Asian imports distort price signals, potentially uplifting domestic residue routes. Carbon prices north of EUR 80 per ton improve project economics, and BECCS pilots in Sweden show 90% capture efficiencies with stable process yields. Nevertheless, limited regional feedstock pools keep Europe reliant on cross-border supply unless municipal waste conversion scales faster.

1. Neste Oyj
2. POET-DSM Advanced Biofuels
3. Abengoa Bioenergy
4. Clariant AG
5. GranBio
6. DuPont Industrial Biosciences
7. Enerkem
8. Beta Renewables
9. INEOS Bio
10. Valero/Green Diesel JV
11. TotalEnergies
12. Gevo Inc.
13. Algenol Biofuels
14. LanzaTech
15. Verbio Vereinigte BioEnergie
16. Cosan-Raizen
17. Aemetis
18. REG-Chevron (Renewable Energy Group)
19. Fulcrum BioEnergy
20. BP Bunge Bioenergia

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Government mandates & blending targets
  • 4.2.2 Decarbonization push in aviation (SAF demand)
  • 4.2.3 Cost reductions via enzyme & pretreatment advances
  • 4.2.4 Abundant lignocellulosic residue availability
  • 4.2.5 Emergence of BECCS-linked credit revenues
  • 4.2.6 Synthetic-biology-driven lipid productivity leaps
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 High CAPEX & scale-up risk of cellulosic biorefineries
  • 4.3.2 Fragmented feedstock supply logistics
  • 4.3.3 Slow commercialization track-record dampening investor confidence
  • 4.3.4 EU trade probes on Asian HVO imports
• 4.4 Supply-Chain Analysis
• 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
• 4.6 Technological Outlook
• 4.7 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • 4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.7.5 Competitive Rivalry
• 4.8 Price Trends Analysis

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts

• 5.1 By Feedstock
  • 5.1.1 Lignocellulosic Biomass
  • 5.1.2 Agricultural Residues
  • 5.1.3 Forestry Residues
  • 5.1.4 Algae
  • 5.1.5 Municipal Solid Waste
• 5.2 By Fuel Type
  • 5.2.1 Cellulosic Ethanol
  • 5.2.2 Biodiesel (FAME)
  • 5.2.3 Renewable Diesel (HVO)
  • 5.2.4 Bio-DME
  • 5.2.5 Bio-Butanol
  • 5.2.6 Sustainable Aviation Fuel (ATJ, HEFA)
• 5.3 By End-Use
  • 5.3.1 Road Transportation
  • 5.3.2 Aviation
  • 5.3.3 Marine
  • 5.3.4 Industrial and Power
• 5.4 By Geography
  • 5.4.1 North America
    • 5.4.1.1 United States
    • 5.4.1.2 Canada
    • 5.4.1.3 Mexico
  • 5.4.2 Europe
    • 5.4.2.1 United Kingdom
    • 5.4.2.2 Germany
    • 5.4.2.3 France
    • 5.4.2.4 Spain
    • 5.4.2.5 Nordic Countries
    • 5.4.2.6 Russia
    • 5.4.2.7 Rest of Europe
  • 5.4.3 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.4.3.1 China
    • 5.4.3.2 India
    • 5.4.3.3 Japan
    • 5.4.3.4 South Korea
    • 5.4.3.5 ASEAN Countries
    • 5.4.3.6 Australia and New Zealand
    • 5.4.3.7 Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • 5.4.4 South America
    • 5.4.4.1 Brazil
    • 5.4.4.2 Argentina
    • 5.4.4.3 Colombia
    • 5.4.4.4 Rest of South America
  • 5.4.5 Middle East and Africa
    • 5.4.5.1 United Arab Emirates
    • 5.4.5.2 Saudi Arabia
    • 5.4.5.3 South Africa
    • 5.4.5.4 Egypt
    • 5.4.5.5 Rest of Middle East and Africa

6 Competitive Landscape

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves (M&A, Partnerships, PPAs)
• 6.3 Market Share Analysis (Market Rank/Share for key companies)
• 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 Neste Oyj
  • 6.4.2 POET-DSM Advanced Biofuels
  • 6.4.3 Abengoa Bioenergy
  • 6.4.4 Clariant AG
  • 6.4.5 GranBio
  • 6.4.6 DuPont Industrial Biosciences
  • 6.4.7 Enerkem
  • 6.4.8 Beta Renewables
  • 6.4.9 INEOS Bio
  • 6.4.10 Valero/Green Diesel JV
  • 6.4.11 TotalEnergies
  • 6.4.12 Gevo Inc.
  • 6.4.13 Algenol Biofuels
  • 6.4.14 LanzaTech
  • 6.4.15 Verbio Vereinigte BioEnergie
  • 6.4.16 Cosan-Raizen
  • 6.4.17 Aemetis
  • 6.4.18 REG-Chevron (Renewable Energy Group)
  • 6.4.19 Fulcrum BioEnergy
  • 6.4.20 BP Bunge Bioenergia

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook

• 7.1 White-space & Unmet-Need Assessment