탄소배출권 : 시장 점유율 분석, 업계 동향 및 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the carbon credit market size is projected to expand from USD 0.89 trillion in 2025 and USD 1.26 trillion in 2026 to USD 5.13 trillion by 2031, registering a CAGR of 32.32% between 2026 to 2031.

This report is Segmented by Type (Compliance Carbon Market, Voluntary Carbon Market), Credit-Type (Renewable-Energy Certificates, Forestry and Land-Use Offsets, and More), Delivery Type (Spot, Futures/Forwards), End-User (Energy and Utilities, and More), and Geography (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, South America, Middle East and Africa). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Global Carbon Credit Market Trends and Insights

Expansion of compliance ETS across emerging economies

In 2025, China incorporated steel, aluminum, and cement into its national emissions trading system, covering 8 billion tCO2e, which accounts for approximately 60-65% of its domestic emissions. The carbon prices were set at CNY 60-70 per tCO2, establishing the world's largest compliance market. India is set to launch a nationwide market in 2026, while Indonesia initiated a coal-power pilot in 2025, indicating a ripple effect across ASEAN. The UAE introduced a voluntary framework, and Saudi Arabia allocated USD 10 billion for offset projects, positioning Gulf countries as both buyers and suppliers in the carbon market. Although liquidity remains lower than the EU ETS, the combined caps of these schemes are projected to surpass 3-4 billion tCO2e by 2030, broadening the scope of the carbon credit market. Cross-border trades under Article 6 are gaining momentum, with 99 bilateral agreements and over 1,000 pipeline projects recorded by late 2025.

Corporate net-zero commitments accelerating VCM demand

Over 10,000 companies have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions by 2025, with more than 5,000 obtaining validation from the Science Based Targets initiative. This validation requires annual emissions reductions of 4.2%, aligned with a 1.5 °C pathway. The introduction of the Net Zero V2 framework in February 2025 incorporated the concept of "Ongoing Emissions Responsibility," formally acknowledging ex-post credits within target pathways. This policy shift contributed to an increase in voluntary retirements, reaching 211 million tCO2e in 2025, a 9% year-on-year growth. Removal credits, including those from direct air capture, biochar, and enhanced weathering, are priced at USD 100-300 per tCO2, representing a 20-60 times premium over traditional avoidance offsets, reflecting a buyer preference for permanence. Additionally, the Integrity Council labeled 400 million credits by late 2024, which increased CCP-tagged retirements from 3% to 7% of the total volume in 2025, highlighting a shift toward high-integrity credit supply.

Oversupply of Low-Quality Credits Eroding Buyer Confidence

Legacy renewable energy and cookstove credits issued before 2020 entered the market at prices below USD 5 per tCO2 in 2025, negatively impacting perceptions of additionality. According to BeZero Carbon's ratings, C-graded units are trading at one-sixth the price of BBB+ projects. Shell reduced its retirements from 14 million tCO2e in 2024 to 9.75 million in 2025, shifting its focus toward removals. Of the 650 million credits issued in 2024, only 400 million were labeled by the Integrity Council, leaving unlabeled stock struggling to attract buyers. As a result, developers face extended payback periods when carbon credit prices drop below USD 10 per tCO2, delaying new forestry and renewable energy projects. Market confidence will depend on the rapid expansion of rating systems and third-party audits to distinguish product quality.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Rise in carbon pricing mechanisms and higher allowance prices
2. Scope 3 Disclosure Mandates Lifting Removal-Credit Demand
3. Fragmented Global Standards & Double-Counting Risks

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

In 2025, compliance schemes accounted for 98.22% of the total volume, driven primarily by the EU ETS and China's cap of 8 billion tCO2e. Exchange liquidity facilitated robust hedging activities, with the Intercontinental Exchange clearing 20.9 million environmental contracts during the year. Meanwhile, the voluntary segment demonstrated a strong growth trajectory, with a CAGR of 42.15%, supported by the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) recognizing ex-post credits and increasing pressures related to Scope 3 emissions. This growth is gradually reducing the traditional divide between compliance and voluntary markets.

Price convergence appears likely as airlines procure CORSIA-eligible units and integrate demand for integrity-tagged removals. This trend is encouraging voluntary issuers to adopt compliance-grade monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) standards. If achieved, successful convergence could expand the carbon credit market for project developers capable of meeting the requirements of both compliance and voluntary regimes.

In 2025, renewable energy certificates accounted for 41.8% of the market share but faced skepticism regarding additionality, which limited prices to below USD 5 per tCO2. Forestry and land-use credits, projected to grow at a 39.2% CAGR, benefit from biodiversity co-benefits and eligibility under CORSIA, although investors remain concerned about reversal risks. Emerging removal technologies, while more expensive, fulfill permanence criteria valued by global brands, indicating a potential long-term shift toward high-integrity units despite initial supply constraints.

Insurance coverage for 5-10% of forestry issuance in 2025 is expanding, while satellite-based MRV significantly reduces verification costs, attracting institutional capital. With premiums for removals ranging from USD 100 to 300 per tCO2, the market share of nature-based and engineered removals is expected to increase, influencing price trends across various registries.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Type
  • Compliance Carbon Market
  • Voluntary Carbon Market
• By Credit-Type
  • Renewable-Energy Certificates (RECs)
  • Forestry and Land-Use Offsets
  • Energy-Efficiency Credits
  • Industrial-Process Improvements
• By Delivery Type
  • Spot (Physical)
  • Futures / Forwards
• By End-user
  • Energy and Utilities
  • Transportation
  • Industrial Manufacturing
  • Agriculture and Forestry
• By Geography
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Mexico
  • Europe
    • Germany
    • United Kingdom
    • France
    • Italy
    • NORDIC Countries
    • Russia
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia-Pacific
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • ASEAN Countries
    • Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Rest of South America
  • Middle East and Africa
    • Saudi Arabia
    • United Arab Emirates
    • South Africa
    • Egypt
    • Rest of Middle East and Africa

Geography Analysis

Europe's projected 76.1% market share in 2025 highlights the impact of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), which enforces a 4.3% annual cap reduction. This system is further supported by the Market Stability Reserve, which has tightened supply. Average EU Allowance prices, ranging from EUR 84 to EUR 93 (USD 96.04 to USD 106.33) per tCO2 in 2026, have driven record liquidity on ICE and EEX. Additionally, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism has extended internal carbon costs to imports, solidifying the region's price leadership. Voluntary carbon credit retirements reached 50 million tCO2, primarily from firms based in London, Zurich, and Amsterdam, as they adapt to the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive.

The Asia-Pacific region is on track for a 38.7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2031, driven by China's expanded ETS, which caps 8 billion tCO2e at prices of CNY 60-70 (USD 8.83-10.30) per tCO2. India is preparing to launch its national program in 2026. Other developments include South Korea's K-ETS, Indonesia's pilot program, and emerging bilateral Article 6 trades, which are collectively shaping a multi-market ecosystem. Supporting this growth, exchange infrastructure is evolving, with Xpansiv partnering with Macao Exchange in February 2026 to establish regional benchmarks, and AirCarbon Exchange targeting aviation sector buyers.

North America accounted for approximately 500 million tCO2 of capped emissions in 2025 through programs such as California's cap-and-trade system, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), and Canada's backstop mechanism, with prices ranging from USD 15 to USD 35 per tCO2. Nodal Exchange achieved record allowance clearances, reflecting increased hedge participation. Meanwhile, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa remain in the early stages of market development but are critical as offset suppliers. Brazil's planned ETS and Saudi Arabia's USD 10 billion project fund have the potential to scale nature-based credit generation for export to compliance buyers in Europe and Asia.

1. Anew Climate, LLC
2. AirCarbon Pte. Ltd.
3. BP Target Neutral
4. Carbon Trade Exchange Ltd.
5. CBL Markets
6. Chevron Environmental Management
7. Climate Impact X Pte. Ltd.
8. ClimatePartner GmbH
9. Core Climate
10. European Energy Exchange AG
11. Evolution Markets Inc.
12. Finite Carbon Corporation
13. Gold Standard Foundation
14. Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
15. Nasdaq Commodities
16. Rearrange Carbon Markets
17. Shell Environmental Products
18. South Pole Holding AG
19. Thallo Inc.
20. Xpansiv Holdings, Inc.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Expansion of compliance ETS across emerging economies
  • 4.2.2 Corporate net-zero commitments accelerating VCM demand
  • 4.2.3 Rise in carbon pricing mechanisms and higher allowance prices
  • 4.2.4 Digital MRV & blockchain boosting credit transparency
  • 4.2.5 Scope-3 disclosure mandates lifting removal-credit demand
  • 4.2.6 CORSIA Phase-2 tightening spurring nature-based credits
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 Oversupply of low-quality credits eroding buyer confidence
  • 4.3.2 Fragmented global standards & double-counting risks
  • 4.3.3 Geopolitical CBAM tensions limiting cross-border flows
  • 4.3.4 Re-versal liability concerns hurting forestry financing
• 4.4 Value Chain Analysis
• 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
• 4.6 Technological Outlook
• 4.7 Porters Five Forces
  • 4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.7.5 Competitive Rivalry

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts

• 5.1 By Type
  • 5.1.1 Compliance Carbon Market
  • 5.1.2 Voluntary Carbon Market
• 5.2 By Credit-Type
  • 5.2.1 Renewable-Energy Certificates (RECs)
  • 5.2.2 Forestry and Land-Use Offsets
  • 5.2.3 Energy-Efficiency Credits
  • 5.2.4 Industrial-Process Improvements
• 5.3 By Delivery Type
  • 5.3.1 Spot (Physical)
  • 5.3.2 Futures / Forwards
• 5.4 By End-user
  • 5.4.1 Energy and Utilities
  • 5.4.2 Transportation
  • 5.4.3 Industrial Manufacturing
  • 5.4.4 Agriculture and Forestry
• 5.5 By Geography
  • 5.5.1 North America
    • 5.5.1.1 United States
    • 5.5.1.2 Canada
    • 5.5.1.3 Mexico
  • 5.5.2 Europe
    • 5.5.2.1 Germany
    • 5.5.2.2 United Kingdom
    • 5.5.2.3 France
    • 5.5.2.4 Italy
    • 5.5.2.5 NORDIC Countries
    • 5.5.2.6 Russia
    • 5.5.2.7 Rest of Europe
  • 5.5.3 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.5.3.1 China
    • 5.5.3.2 India
    • 5.5.3.3 Japan
    • 5.5.3.4 South Korea
    • 5.5.3.5 ASEAN Countries
    • 5.5.3.6 Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • 5.5.4 South America
    • 5.5.4.1 Brazil
    • 5.5.4.2 Argentina
    • 5.5.4.3 Rest of South America
  • 5.5.5 Middle East and Africa
    • 5.5.5.1 Saudi Arabia
    • 5.5.5.2 United Arab Emirates
    • 5.5.5.3 South Africa
    • 5.5.5.4 Egypt
    • 5.5.5.5 Rest of Middle East and Africa

6 Competitive Landscape

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves (M&A, Partnerships, PPAs)
• 6.3 Market Share Analysis (Market Rank/Share for key companies)
• 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 Anew Climate, LLC
  • 6.4.2 AirCarbon Pte. Ltd.
  • 6.4.3 BP Target Neutral
  • 6.4.4 Carbon Trade Exchange Ltd.
  • 6.4.5 CBL Markets
  • 6.4.6 Chevron Environmental Management
  • 6.4.7 Climate Impact X Pte. Ltd.
  • 6.4.8 ClimatePartner GmbH
  • 6.4.9 Core Climate
  • 6.4.10 European Energy Exchange AG
  • 6.4.11 Evolution Markets Inc.
  • 6.4.12 Finite Carbon Corporation
  • 6.4.13 Gold Standard Foundation
  • 6.4.14 Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
  • 6.4.15 Nasdaq Commodities
  • 6.4.16 Rearrange Carbon Markets
  • 6.4.17 Shell Environmental Products
  • 6.4.18 South Pole Holding AG
  • 6.4.19 Thallo Inc.
  • 6.4.20 Xpansiv Holdings, Inc.

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook

• 7.1 White-space & Unmet-need Assessment