자동차용 변속기 시장 : 점유율 분석, 업계 동향과 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the automotive transmission market size is expected to grow from USD 155.04 billion in 2025 to USD 163.39 billion in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 209.73 billion by 2031, growing at a 5.12% CAGR during the forecast period (2026-2031).

This report is Segmented by Transmission Type (Manual, Intelligent Manual Transmission (IMT), and More), Vehicle Type (Passenger Cars, Lcvs, and More), Propulsion Technology (Internal Combustion Engine (ICE), and More), Sales Channel (OEM, Aftermarket), and Geography (North America, South America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa). Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Global Automotive Transmission Market Trends and Insights

Rapid Growth of Hybrid and BEV E-Axle Transmissions

Electrified drivelines merge motor, inverter, and reduction gear into compact e-axles that can cut weight by 18 kilograms versus six-speed automatics, as demonstrated by BYD's 8-in-1 unit on the Seal in 2024. Hyundai's P1+P2 hybrid layout, launched in April 2025, features a 44-kilowatt motor positioned between the engine and a six-speed automatic transmission, allowing for a pure-electric launch without separate transmission control. NIO's four-in-one drive in the ET7 achieves 91.5% system efficiency by integrating torque vectoring into the inverter firmware.

Tightening Global CO2/Fuel-Economy Regulations

The U.S. 2027-2031 CAFE rules finalized in 2024 demand a 58-mile-per-gallon fleet average by 2031, compelling eight-plus-speed automatics that keep engines in optimum efficiency bands. Euro 7, effective January 2025, limits on-road nitrogen oxides to 60 mg/km, pushing diesel models toward 10-speed units that curb transient spikes. China's revised dual-credit system rewards plug-in hybrids that exceed 80 km electric range, accelerating clutchless hybrid gearboxes. India's CAFE Phase 2 imposes penalties of INR 25,000 per gram of CO2 above 113 g/km, thereby accelerating the adoption of intelligent manuals with automated clutches.

High System Cost and Complexity of Multi-Speed Electrified Drivelines

Adding an extra ratio inflates EV drivetrain cost by USD 400-600. It increases weight by 22 kilograms, as seen in Porsche's Taycan, which also requires dedicated cooling to manage oil temperatures of up to 180 °C. Tesla and BYD avoid this cost by optimizing single-speed gearing for 90% of driving cycles. Hybrid e-CVTs face similar bill-of-materials pressure, with Toyota's e-CVT requiring a battery capable of 50 kW continuous discharge, which raises pack cost by USD 1,200. These premiums limit near-term proliferation beyond premium nameplates, tempering broader growth in the automotive transmission market.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Consumer Shift Toward Automatic and DCT for Comfort/Performance
2. Commercial-Vehicle Demand for AMT to Address Driver Shortage
3. Supply-Chain Volatility in Precision-Forged Gears and Bearings

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Automatic transmissions retained a leading 41.03% share of the automotive transmission market in 2025, anchored by North American pickups and SUVs that value towing and refinement. Dual-clutch units are projected to grow at a 5.89% CAGR through 2031. Continuously variable designs, once favored for their infinite ratio spread, now struggle to satisfy performance expectations despite JATCO's CVT9 launch with a 9.0:1 ratio range. Manual gearboxes persist mainly in entry-level Asian models, thanks to a USD 300 cost advantage over intelligent manuals.

Automatic dominance in full-size pickups, dual-clutch acceleration in compact cars, and emerging two-speed EV gears together shape the future mix. The automotive transmission market for dual-clutch units is expected to expand as tooling amortization reduces per-unit costs. Two-speed EV boxes count as "Others" but carry strategic weight for premium range extension in models like Audi's e-tron GT. Suppliers, therefore, diversify portfolios across all mechanisms to defend relevance.

Passenger cars accounted for a 64.79% share of the automotive transmission market in 2025, while light commercial vehicles are expected to record a 5.62% CAGR through 2031, as e-commerce fleets prioritize low-maintenance electric drivetrains. Ford's E-Transit reduced service expenses 40% versus diesel predecessors through a single-speed reduction gear rated at 430 Nm. Mercedes-Benz's eSprinter adopted a two-speed gearbox to sustain a payload advantage of 1,045 kilograms.

The automotive transmission market for AMT-equipped heavy trucks is poised to grow steadily as carriers link safety gains to lower insurance premiums. Passenger cars bifurcate into eight-speed automatics for ICE platforms and single-speed drives for mainstream BEVs under USD 40,000. Tata's Ace EV shows intelligent manual viability within small electrified commercial vehicles in India. Volvo Trucks' FH Electric features a two-speed I-Shift for improved gradeability, though its USD 350,000 price currently limits adoption.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Transmission Type
  • Manual Transmission
  • Intelligent Manual Transmission (iMT)
  • Automated Manual Transmission (AMT)
  • Automatic Transmission (AT)
  • Dual-Clutch Transmission (DCT)
  • Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT)
  • Others (Planetary, 2-speed EV gearboxes etc.)
• By Vehicle Type
  • Passenger Cars
  • Light Commercial Vehicles
  • Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles
  • Buses and Coaches
• By Propulsion Technology
  • Internal-Combustion Engine (ICE)
  • Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV/PHEV)
  • Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)
  • Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV)
• By Sales Channel
  • Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) Factory-Fit
  • Aftermarket/Remanufactured
• By Geography
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Rest of North America
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Rest of South America
  • Europe
    • Germany
    • United Kingdom
    • France
    • Italy
    • Spain
    • Russia
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia-Pacific
    • China
    • Japan
    • India
    • South Korea
    • Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • Middle East and Africa
    • Turkey
    • United Arab Emirates
    • Saudi Arabia
    • South Africa
    • Rest of Middle East and Africa

Geography Analysis

In 2025, the Asia-Pacific region held a 43.67% share of the automotive transmission market, fueled by strong BEV sales in China and significant growth in India's adoption of intelligent manuals, especially for sedans priced below USD 15,000. China's revised dual-credit system now allocates 1.6 credits per plug-in hybrid, encouraging OEMs to utilize dedicated hybrid transmissions, such as BYD's DM-i.

South America represents the fastest-growing territory, with a 6.28% CAGR through 2031, as Brazil's Rota 2030 initiative subsidizes locally built automatics to achieve 12% fleet-level efficiency by 2028. Argentina's import tariff on fully built gearboxes spurred local dual-clutch assembly for Volkswagen and Fiat. In 2025, North America's automotive transmission market experienced a notable increase, with 10-speed automatics dominating pickups like the Ford F-150, while single-speed drives became the preferred choice for crossovers, exemplified by the Mustang Mach-E.

Meanwhile, Europe is gravitating towards dual-clutch systems, highlighted by Germany's substantial share of DCTs in passenger vehicles in 2025. In 2025, the United Kingdom experienced a surge in new BEV registrations, dampening the demand for conventional automatics. Concurrently, France is expanding Renault's clutchless four-speed E-Tech across its mainstream models.

1. ZF Friedrichshafen AG
2. Aisin Corporation
3. JATCO Ltd.
4. Hyundai Transys Inc.
5. Magna International Inc.
6. Allison Transmission Inc.
7. Schaeffler AG
8. Eaton Corporation plc
9. BorgWarner Inc.
10. Continental AG
11. Punch Powertrain NV
12. GKN Automotive Limited
13. Toyota Motor Corp. (Hybrid e-CVT)
14. Valeo SA
15. Tremec Corporation
16. Dana Incorporated

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Rapid Growth of Hybrid and BEV E-Axle Transmissions
  • 4.2.2 Tightening Global Fuel-Economy Regulations
  • 4.2.3 Consumer Shift Toward Automatic and DCT for Comfort/Performance
  • 4.2.4 Commercial-Vehicle Demand for AMT to Address Driver Shortage
  • 4.2.5 Silicon-Carbide Inverter Cost Decline Enabling 2-Speed EV Gearboxes
  • 4.2.6 Software-Defined "Shift-By-Wire" Enabling OTA Feature Monetization
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 High System Cost and Complexity of Multi-Speed Electrified Drivelines
  • 4.3.2 Supply-Chain Volatility In Precision-Forged Gears and Bearings
  • 4.3.3 Limited Thermal Window For Ultra-Low-Viscosity ATF in EVs
  • 4.3.4 Cyber-Security Compliance Costs for Connected Shift Controls
• 4.4 Value/Supply-Chain Analysis
• 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
• 4.6 Technological Outlook
• 4.7 Porter's Five Forces
  • 4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers/Consumers
  • 4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitute Products
  • 4.7.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 Market Size and Growth Forecasts (Value (USD))

• 5.1 By Transmission Type
  • 5.1.1 Manual Transmission
  • 5.1.2 Intelligent Manual Transmission (iMT)
  • 5.1.3 Automated Manual Transmission (AMT)
  • 5.1.4 Automatic Transmission (AT)
  • 5.1.5 Dual-Clutch Transmission (DCT)
  • 5.1.6 Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT)
  • 5.1.7 Others (Planetary, 2-speed EV gearboxes etc.)
• 5.2 By Vehicle Type
  • 5.2.1 Passenger Cars
  • 5.2.2 Light Commercial Vehicles
  • 5.2.3 Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles
  • 5.2.4 Buses and Coaches
• 5.3 By Propulsion Technology
  • 5.3.1 Internal-Combustion Engine (ICE)
  • 5.3.2 Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV/PHEV)
  • 5.3.3 Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)
  • 5.3.4 Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV)
• 5.4 By Sales Channel
  • 5.4.1 Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) Factory-Fit
  • 5.4.2 Aftermarket/Remanufactured
• 5.5 By Geography
  • 5.5.1 North America
    • 5.5.1.1 United States
    • 5.5.1.2 Canada
    • 5.5.1.3 Rest of North America
  • 5.5.2 South America
    • 5.5.2.1 Brazil
    • 5.5.2.2 Argentina
    • 5.5.2.3 Rest of South America
  • 5.5.3 Europe
    • 5.5.3.1 Germany
    • 5.5.3.2 United Kingdom
    • 5.5.3.3 France
    • 5.5.3.4 Italy
    • 5.5.3.5 Spain
    • 5.5.3.6 Russia
    • 5.5.3.7 Rest of Europe
  • 5.5.4 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.5.4.1 China
    • 5.5.4.2 Japan
    • 5.5.4.3 India
    • 5.5.4.4 South Korea
    • 5.5.4.5 Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • 5.5.5 Middle East and Africa
    • 5.5.5.1 Turkey
    • 5.5.5.2 United Arab Emirates
    • 5.5.5.3 Saudi Arabia
    • 5.5.5.4 South Africa
    • 5.5.5.5 Rest of Middle East and Africa

6 Competitive Landscape

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves
• 6.3 Market Share Analysis
• 6.4 Company Profiles (Includes Global Level Overview, Market Level Overview, Core Segments, Financials as Available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for Key Companies, Products and Services, SWOT Analysis, and Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 ZF Friedrichshafen AG
  • 6.4.2 Aisin Corporation
  • 6.4.3 JATCO Ltd.
  • 6.4.4 Hyundai Transys Inc.
  • 6.4.5 Magna International Inc.
  • 6.4.6 Allison Transmission Inc.
  • 6.4.7 Schaeffler AG
  • 6.4.8 Eaton Corporation plc
  • 6.4.9 BorgWarner Inc.
  • 6.4.10 Continental AG
  • 6.4.11 Punch Powertrain NV
  • 6.4.12 GKN Automotive Limited
  • 6.4.13 Toyota Motor Corp. (Hybrid e-CVT)
  • 6.4.14 Valeo SA
  • 6.4.15 Tremec Corporation
  • 6.4.16 Dana Incorporated

7 Market Opportunities and Future Outlook

• 7.1 White-space and Unmet-Need Assessment