천연두 치료 시장 : 시장 점유율 분석, 업계 동향 및 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the smallpox treatment market size was valued at USD 475.65 million in 2025 and is estimated to grow from USD 507.90 million in 2026 to reach USD 742.56 million by 2031, at a CAGR of 7.89% during the forecast period (2026-2031).

This report is Segmented by Product (Antiviral Drugs, Vaccines), Disease Type (Variola Major, Variola Minor, Other), Route of Administration (Oral, Parenteral), End User (Public Health Agencies, Hospitals, Military, Other), Distribution Channel (Government Stockpiles, Pharmacies), and Geography (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, MEA, S. America). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Global Smallpox Treatment Market Trends and Insights

Government Stockpiling and Medical-Countermeasure Procurement

Stockpile refresh contracts remained the largest revenue driver for the smallpox treatment market. In March 2025, SIGA Technologies received a USD 26 million order for IV TPOXX under its BARDA 19C contract, following a USD 113 million oral TPOXX order in July 2024. In June 2026, Emergent BioSolutions received a USD 52.7 million contract modification for ACAM2000 vaccine, ancillaries, and diluent replacement lots. The National Academies stated that anthrax and smallpox capacity sustainment was expected to account for nearly two-thirds of Strategic National Stockpile procurement spending during FY2022 through FY2026. These requirements favored suppliers that already met Animal Rule, quality, and stockpile qualification standards.

Orthopoxvirus Preparedness After Mpox Outbreaks

The 2022 multi-country mpox outbreak changed how many governments assessed orthopoxvirus preparedness. Governments increasingly positioned smallpox medical countermeasures as assets with applications beyond a narrow bioterrorism scenario. Bavarian Nordic reported DKK 3,105 million (approximately USD 450 million) in Public Preparedness revenue in 2025, including government demand for its MVA-BN vaccine platform. Bavarian Nordic's April 2024 EU strategic reserve contract for MVA-BN was valued at EUR 65 million (approximately USD 70 million) and helped establish a coordinated procurement route for member states. Research on vaccine development and stockpiling also highlighted the shift toward more coordinated preparedness arrangements in Europe. South Korea's National Vaccine Stockpiling Mid- to Long-Term Plan for 2024 to 2028 indicated that preparedness was becoming part of longer-term national planning. This broader buyer base supported the smallpox treatment market even without an active smallpox event.

Eradicated Disease and Minimal Routine Clinical Demand

The variola virus does not circulate in any human population, making all purchases precautionary. Governments fund preparedness for a severe but uncertain event, which can strain budgets as other public health priorities compete for funding. The WHO Smallpox Vaccine Emergency Stockpile supports countries that do not maintain independent reserves and also reflects uneven global coverage. With no routine clinical demand, the smallpox treatment market depends on sustained policy commitment and government willingness to maintain inventory.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Reduced Population Immunity After Routine Smallpox Vaccination Ended
2. Animal Rule Pathway for Approval Without Human Efficacy Trials
3. Limited Human Efficacy Evidence for Approved Therapeutics

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Antiviral drugs held a 60.34% share in 2025, led by tecovirimat in national stockpiles across the United States, Canada, Europe, and Japan. The segment benefits from demand for treatment after exposure. The FDA approved TPOXX for oral smallpox treatment in 2018 and approved an intravenous formulation in 2022 for patients unable to take capsules. Public health authorities also hold brincidofovir as a second-line option under the Animal Rule, while cidofovir remains relevant in institutional protocols despite intravenous administration and renal toxicity concerns.

Vaccines are projected to be the fastest-growing product group, registering an 8.82% CAGR through 2031. In March 2025, the FDA approved a freeze-dried JYNNEOS formulation, improving its suitability for long-term storage. BARDA exercised USD 143.6 million in options under Bavarian Nordic's existing 10-year supply contract, with deliveries planned for 2026. ACAM2000 remains part of the United States Strategic National Stockpile and received expanded FDA approval for mpox in 2024, while Japan's LC16m8 and Moderna's mRNA-1769 candidate support future supply diversity.

Variola Major held 68.36% of the smallpox treatment market size in 2025 and is also forecast to register the fastest 8.23% CAGR through 2031. Preparedness plans focus on this form because it historically caused the highest disease burden and presents the clearest biodefense concern. Its historical case fatality rate ranged from 15% to 35%, compared with below 1% for Variola Minor. Animal model studies use related orthopoxvirus surrogates, keeping development and procurement focused on the more severe threat scenario.

Variola Minor, hemorrhagic smallpox, malignant smallpox, and modified smallpox make up the remainder of this segmentation. Hemorrhagic and malignant forms historically had very high fatality rates, but their rarity limited their role in volume modeling. Modified smallpox may present atypical clinical features in partially immune people, including vaccinated military personnel and healthcare workers. A large event in a low-immunity population could increase demand for intravenous antivirals, supportive care products, and multiple therapeutic formats.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Product
  • Antiviral Drugs
    • Tecovirimat
    • Brincidofovir
    • Cidofovir
    • Others
  • Vaccines
    • ACAM2000
    • JYNNEOS (MVA-BN)
    • LC16m8
• By Disease Type
  • Variola Major
  • Variola Minor
  • Hemorrhagic Smallpox
  • Malignant (Flat) Smallpox
  • Modified Smallpox
• By Route of Administration
  • Oral
  • Parenteral
• By End User
  • Hospitals & Clinics
  • Ambulatory Care Centers
  • Public Health Agencies
  • Military & Defense Agencies
  • Homecare
• By Distribution Channel
  • Government & Strategic Stockpiles
  • Hospital Pharmacies
  • Specialty Pharmacies
  • Retail Pharmacies
• By Geography
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Mexico
  • Europe
    • Germany
    • United Kingdom
    • France
    • Italy
    • Spain
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia-Pacific
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • Australia
    • South Korea
    • Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • Middle East and Africa
    • GCC
    • South Africa
    • Rest of Middle East and Africa
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Rest of South America

Geography Analysis

North America held a 43.21% share in 2025. The United States supported regional demand through the Strategic National Stockpile, BARDA development funding, and Project BioShield procurement authority. Multi-year purchase agreements for vaccines and antivirals created a predictable demand base for established suppliers. Canada formalized multi-year medical countermeasure arrangements, while Mexico remained a smaller market aligned with Pan American Health Organization guidance.

Asia-Pacific is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 8.76% from 2026 to 2031. Japan approved TEPOXX and used LC16m8 within its bioterrorism response framework. SIGA received a USD 13 million oral TPOXX order from an Asia-Pacific customer in January 2026 under a multi-year agreement. South Korea's 2024 to 2028 vaccine stockpiling plan indicated a shift from event-based purchasing to longer-term preparedness.

Europe developed a coordinated reserve model through rescEU and HERA while retaining national programs in Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Bavarian Nordic secured MVA-BN orders for the EU strategic reserve, supporting regional vaccine capacity. France confirmed in May 2026 that tecovirimat remained authorized for smallpox, cowpox, and vaccinia complications after the mpox indication was withdrawn. The Middle East and Africa remained at an earlier stage in formal stockpile development, while Brazil and Argentina built capacity in line with Pan American Health Organization frameworks.

1. Bavarian Nordic
2. Bharat Biotech International Limited
3. BioFactura, Inc.
4. BioNTech
5. Cangene Corporation
6. Chimerix, Inc.
7. Dynavax Technologies
8. Elusys Therapeutics, Inc.
9. Emergent Bio Solutions
10. General Dynamics Information Technology, Inc.
11. GlaxoSmithKline
12. Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
13. KM Biologics Co., Ltd.
14. Merck
15. Moderna
16. Pfizer
17. Sanofi
18. SIGA Technologies, Inc.
19. Tonix Pharmaceuticals
20. Vaxart, Inc.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Government Stockpiling and Medical-Countermeasure Procurement
  • 4.2.2 Expansion of Orthopoxvirus Preparedness After Mpox Outbreaks
  • 4.2.3 Reduced Population Immunity After Routine Smallpox Vaccination Ended
  • 4.2.4 Animal-Rule Pathway Enabling Approval Without Human Efficacy Trials
  • 4.2.5 Dual-Mechanism Need to Manage Tecovirimat Resistance
  • 4.2.6 National Diversification of Strategic Stockpiles Beyond the United States
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 Eradicated Disease and Minimal Routine Clinical Demand
  • 4.3.2 Limited Human Efficacy Evidence for Approved Therapeutics
  • 4.3.3 High Cost and Long Lead Times for Stockpile Rotation
  • 4.3.4 Low Resistance Barrier and Sparse Variola-Specific Surveillance
• 4.4 Value and Supply-Chain Analysis
• 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
• 4.6 Technological Outlook
• 4.7 Porter's Five Forces
  • 4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.7.5 Industry Rivalry

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts (Value, USD)

• 5.1 By Product
  • 5.1.1 Antiviral Drugs
    • 5.1.1.1 Tecovirimat
    • 5.1.1.2 Brincidofovir
    • 5.1.1.3 Cidofovir
    • 5.1.1.4 Others
  • 5.1.2 Vaccines
    • 5.1.2.1 ACAM2000
    • 5.1.2.2 JYNNEOS (MVA-BN)
    • 5.1.2.3 LC16m8
• 5.2 By Disease Type
  • 5.2.1 Variola Major
  • 5.2.2 Variola Minor
  • 5.2.3 Hemorrhagic Smallpox
  • 5.2.4 Malignant (Flat) Smallpox
  • 5.2.5 Modified Smallpox
• 5.3 By Route of Administration
  • 5.3.1 Oral
  • 5.3.2 Parenteral
• 5.4 By End User
  • 5.4.1 Hospitals & Clinics
  • 5.4.2 Ambulatory Care Centers
  • 5.4.3 Public Health Agencies
  • 5.4.4 Military & Defense Agencies
  • 5.4.5 Homecare
• 5.5 By Distribution Channel
  • 5.5.1 Government & Strategic Stockpiles
  • 5.5.2 Hospital Pharmacies
  • 5.5.3 Specialty Pharmacies
  • 5.5.4 Retail Pharmacies
• 5.6 By Geography
  • 5.6.1 North America
    • 5.6.1.1 United States
    • 5.6.1.2 Canada
    • 5.6.1.3 Mexico
  • 5.6.2 Europe
    • 5.6.2.1 Germany
    • 5.6.2.2 United Kingdom
    • 5.6.2.3 France
    • 5.6.2.4 Italy
    • 5.6.2.5 Spain
    • 5.6.2.6 Rest of Europe
  • 5.6.3 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.6.3.1 China
    • 5.6.3.2 India
    • 5.6.3.3 Japan
    • 5.6.3.4 Australia
    • 5.6.3.5 South Korea
    • 5.6.3.6 Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • 5.6.4 Middle East and Africa
    • 5.6.4.1 GCC
    • 5.6.4.2 South Africa
    • 5.6.4.3 Rest of Middle East and Africa
  • 5.6.5 South America
    • 5.6.5.1 Brazil
    • 5.6.5.2 Argentina
    • 5.6.5.3 Rest of South America

6 Competitive Landscape

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Market Share Analysis
• 6.3 Company Profiles {(includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for key companies, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)}
  • 6.3.1 Bavarian Nordic A/S
  • 6.3.2 Bharat Biotech International Limited
  • 6.3.3 BioFactura, Inc.
  • 6.3.4 BioNTech SE
  • 6.3.5 Cangene Corporation
  • 6.3.6 Chimerix, Inc.
  • 6.3.7 Dynavax Technologies Corporation
  • 6.3.8 Elusys Therapeutics, Inc.
  • 6.3.9 Emergent BioSolutions Inc.
  • 6.3.10 General Dynamics Information Technology, Inc.
  • 6.3.11 GlaxoSmithKline plc
  • 6.3.12 Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
  • 6.3.13 KM Biologics Co., Ltd.
  • 6.3.14 Merck & Co., Inc.
  • 6.3.15 Moderna, Inc.
  • 6.3.16 Pfizer Inc.
  • 6.3.17 Sanofi
  • 6.3.18 SIGA Technologies, Inc.
  • 6.3.19 Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp.
  • 6.3.20 Vaxart, Inc.

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook

• 7.1 White-space & unmet-need assessment