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네트워크 사업자 전망(-2026년) : 2026년 설비 투자액은 2020년 대비 37% 증가한 6,290억 달러에 도달, 시장의 40% 이상을 웹스케일 사업자가 차지할 전망

Network Operator Forecast Through 2026: Capex to Reach $629B by 2026, Up 37% from 2020, Webscale Will Account for Over 40% of Market

리서치사 MTN Consulting, LLC
발행일 2021년 12월 상품코드 1044712
페이지 정보 영문 배송안내
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네트워크 사업자 전망(-2026년) : 2026년 설비 투자액은 2020년 대비 37% 증가한 6,290억 달러에 도달, 시장의 40% 이상을 웹스케일 사업자가 차지할 전망 Network Operator Forecast Through 2026: Capex to Reach $629B by 2026, Up 37% from 2020, Webscale Will Account for Over 40% of Market
발행일 : 2021년 12월 페이지 정보 : 영문

본 상품은 영문 자료로 한글과 영문 목차에 불일치하는 내용이 있을 경우 영문을 우선합니다. 정확한 검토를 위해 영문목차를 참고해주시기 바랍니다.

통신사업자, 웹스케일 사업자, 캐리어 뉴트럴 사업자 3개 부문의 매출 성장률과 이익은 최근 분기에 예상보다 높아졌습니다. 3개 부문을 합친 네트워크 사업자의 설비 투자 총액은 2021년에 2020년 대비 13.4% 증가한 5,200억 달러에 달할 전망입니다. 올해 성장의 다수는 웹스케일에 의한 것이나, 통신사업자 및 캐리어 뉴트럴의 설비 투자도 급증하고 있습니다.

2026년을 전망하면 설비 투자의 성장률은 꽤 둔화할 전망이나, 2026년에는 총설비 투자액이 6,290억 달러에 달할 것으로 예측되고 있습니다. 2026년 설비 투자액의 내역 예측은 통신사업자가 약 51%, 웹스케일 사업자가 약 40%, 캐리어 뉴트럴 사업자가 약 9%에 달할 전망입니다.

도표 예

네트워크 사업자에 대해 조사했으며, 통신·캐리어 뉴트럴·웹스케일의 각 사업자 부문별 시장 예측을 정리하여 전해드립니다.

조사 대상 범위

네트워크 사업자 3대 부문을 대상으로 하고 있으며, 합계 약 200사의 사업자를 다루고 있습니다.

  • American Tower(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • Arqiva(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • Balitower(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • Bharti Infratel(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • Cellnex(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • China Tower(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • Chorus Limited(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • Cogent(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • CoreSite Realty(부문 : Carrier-neutral)
  • Crown Castle(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • CyrusOne(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • Digital Realty(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • DuPont Fabros(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • EI Towers(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • Equinix(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • GDS Data Centers(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • GTL Infrastructure(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • GTT Communications(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • Internap(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • Interxion(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • Inti Bangun Sejahtera(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • Inwit(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • Level 3(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • Lumos(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • NBN Australia(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • QTS Realty(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • Sarana Menara Nusantara(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • SBA Communications(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • Solusi Tunas Pratama(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • Superloop(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • Switch(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • TDF Infrastructure/Arcus(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • Telesites(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • Telxius/Telefonica(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • Tower Bersama Infrastructure(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • Uniti Group(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • Zayo(부문 : 캐리어 뉴트럴)
  • A1 Telekom Austria(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Advanced Info Service(AIS)(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Airtel(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Altice Europe(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Altice USA(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • America Movil(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • AT&T(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Axiata(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Axtel(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Batelco(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • BCE(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Bezeq Israel(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Bouygues Telecom(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • BSNL(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • BT(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Cable ONE, Inc.(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Cablevision(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Cell C(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Cellcom Israel(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • CenturyLink(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Cequel Communications(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Charter Communications(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • China Broadcasting Network(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • China Mobile(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • China Telecom(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • China Unicom(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Chunghwa Telecom(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Cincinatti Bell(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • CK Hutchison(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Clearwire(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Cogeco(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Com Hem Holding AB(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Comcast(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Consolidated Communications(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Cyfrowy Polsat(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • DEN Networks Limited(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Deutsche Telekom(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Digi Communications(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • DirecTV(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Dish Network(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Dish TV India Limited(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • DNA Ltd.(부문 : 통신사업자)(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Du(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • EE(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Elisa(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Entel(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Etisalat(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Fairpoint Communications(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Far EasTone Telecommunications Co.,Ltd.(부문 : 통신사업자)(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Frontier Communications(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Globe Telecom(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Grupo Clarin(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Grupo Televisa(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Hathway Cable &Datacom Limited(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Idea Cellular Limited(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Iliad SA(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • KDDI(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • KPN(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • KT(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Leap Wireless(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • LG Uplus(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Liberty Global(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • M1(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Manitoba Telecom Services(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Maroc Telecom(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Maxis Berhad(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Megafon(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • MetroPCS Communications(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Millicom(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Mobile Telesystems(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • MTN Group(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • MTNL(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • NTT(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Oi(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Omantel(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Ono(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Ooredoo(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Orange(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • PCCW(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • PLDT(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Proximus(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Quebecor Telecommunications(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Rakuten(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Reliance Communications Limited(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Reliance Jio(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Rosers(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Rostelecom(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Safaricom Limited(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Sasktel(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Shaw(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Singtel(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • SITI Networks Limited(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • SK Telecom(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Sky plc(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • SmarTone(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • SoftBank(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Spark New Zealand Limited(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Sprint(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • StarHub(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • STC(Saudi Telecom)(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • SureWest Communications(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Swisscom(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Taiwan Mobile(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Tata Communications(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Tata Teleservices(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • TDC(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • TDS(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Tele2 AB(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Telecom Argentina(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Telecom Egypt(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Telecom Italia(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Telefonica(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Telekom Malaysia Berhad(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Telenor(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Telia(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Telkom Indonesia(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Telkom SA(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Telstra(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Telus(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Thaicom(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Time Warner(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Time Warner Cable(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • TPG Telecom Limited(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • True Corp(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Turk Telekom(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Turkcell(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Veon(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Verizon(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Virgin Media(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Vivendi(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Vodafone(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Vodafone Idea Limited(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • VodafoneZiggo(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Wind Tre(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Windstream(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Zain(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Zain KSA(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Ziggo(부문 : 통신사업자)
  • Alibaba(부문 : 웹스케일 사업자)
  • Alphabet(부문 : 웹스케일 사업자)
  • Altaba(부문 : 웹스케일 사업자)
  • Amazon(부문 : 웹스케일 사업자)
  • Apple(부문 : 웹스케일 사업자)
  • Baidu(부문 : 웹스케일 사업자)
  • ChinaCache(부문 : 웹스케일 사업자)
  • Cognizant(부문 : 웹스케일 사업자)
  • eBay(부문 : 웹스케일 사업자)
  • Facebook(부문 : 웹스케일 사업자)
  • Fujitsu(부문 : 웹스케일 사업자)
  • HPE(부문 : 웹스케일 사업자)
  • IBM(부문 : 웹스케일 사업자)
  • JD.COM(부문 : 웹스케일 사업자)
  • LinkedIn(부문 : 웹스케일 사업자)
  • Microsoft(부문 : 웹스케일 사업자)
  • Oracle(부문 : 웹스케일 사업자)
  • SAP(부문 : 웹스케일 사업자)
  • Tencent(부문 : 웹스케일 사업자)
  • Twitter(부문 : 웹스케일 사업자)
  • Yandex(부문 : 웹스케일 사업자)

목차

  • 1. 요약
  • 2. 통신사업자 시장 예측
  • 3. 웹스케일 사업자 시장 예측
  • 4. 캐리어 뉴트럴 사업자 시장 예측
  • 5. MTN Consulting, LLC 소개
KSA 22.02.15

Global economies have recovered from the worst of last year's pandemic, but COVID-19 has caused some long-term shifts in market dynamics. Network traffic growth rates have accelerated, new business models emerged, cloud services matured and spread to new verticals, applications and customer sizes. Networks are more important than ever. Revenue growth rates and profitability in all three segments that we track - telco, webscale, and carrier-neutral - have been stronger in recent quarters than anticipated. Network investments have grown, at sometimes stunning rates. Total network operator capex, across the three segments, is likely to total US$520 billion (B) in 2021, up 13.4% from 2020. Much of this year's growth came from webscale, which will end 2021 at about 32.1% of total capex, from 29.3% in 2020. But telco and carrier-neutral capex have also spiked.

Looking ahead to 2026, capex growth rates will slow considerably but total capex is likely to reach $629B by 2026. In that year, telco, webscale, and carrier-neutral segments will account for roughly 51%, 40%, and 9% of capex, respectively. Networks will increasingly revolve around data centers, which will continue to proliferate both at the core and edge. Data center innovation will continue to be rapid, as webscalers push the envelope on network design and function, and telcos seek cheaper ways of running their networks. The telco need for cost efficiency will rise as overhyped 5G-based opportunities fail to materialize in any big way. Carrier-neutral operators (CNNOs) will remain important to telcos and webscalers, and benefit from an ongoing wave of new capital which will help them transform to more integrated providers of "digital infrastructure" assets.

VISUALS

Network operator interdependence

MTN Consulting's Global Network Infrastructure (GNI) service tracks the economics of telcos, webscalers, and carrier-neutral operators. The three groups are not homogenous. Webscale revenue models revolve around a diverse mix of advertising, devices, software, cloud services, and ecommerce. Carrier-neutral providers rent network infrastructure to other businesses. Telcos sell subscription and pay-as-you-go services for communications services, including bandwidth, video, mobility, and enterprise services. There is a huge amount of variety in these discrete market segments. What's more important, though, is that the three segments rely on each other in important ways. Carrier-neutral players get most of their revenues from telcos & webscalers needing to fill gaps in network coverage. Telcos rely on CNNOs to lower their cost of operations, and need webscalers to provide services and apps which make their network worth using beyond telephony. Webscalers lack last mile access networks, and can only deliver their services to the mass market over telco infrastructure. Webscalers also, despite big capex outlays, can only blanket the globe with data centers by partnering with CNNOs for collocation.

Looking ahead, this interdependence will grow. The big cloud providers in the webscale market, for instance, have targeted the telecom vertical and found success; AWS, Azure and GCP recorded about $2B in revenues from telcos over the last 4 quarters. Telcos are making some big bets on cloud technology as they deploy 5G core networks. Both telcos and webscalers want to provide seamless, resilient network coverage, including at the edge, and can't build it all themselves. As a result, they'll need to scale up their partnerships with carrier-neutral players like Equinix and American Tower/CoreSite. CNNOs are increasingly taking over the "dumb pipe" aspects of the network, and to be competitive and upsell they will integrate assets across fiber, cell tower and data center.

Telco revenues will grow just a bit; capital intensity to fall after 2023, towards 15% range

From an unusually weak 2020 base, telco revenues are likely to grow nearly 7% in 2021 to $1,912 billion, but growth thereafter will return to the more typical 1-3% range per year range. By 2026, telco revenues are likely to measure $2.1 trillion. Telco capex is also rising in 2021, up about 8% to $317B, and will hover around $330B for the next three years until falling to $320B by 2026. Drivers for investment in the near term include: expanding 5G RAN coverage; infrastructure for new 5G-based services; replacing Huawei gear; government subsidies of fiber deployment (US and Europe, mainly); 5G stand-alone core projects; transmission and IP-layer (e.g. intent-based routing) upgrades; network automation; and a broad range of software investments, including projects done in collaboration with webscalers (which do impact capex, thanks in part to flexible accounting rules). Software will rise from about 15% of capex last year to 20% by 2026. The main constraint on telco investment is limited prospects for top-line growth. Telcos will remain in a constant battle with their cost structure, seeking to deploy technologies which help lower cost per bit, lower energy costs, lower the cost of running networks. Telco collaborations with webscalers on service creation and delivery, and network offload, will also help on the cost side, as will reliance on CNNOs for key network assets.

Regionally, the strongest capex growth rates (from a 2020 base) will be seen in India and MEA. India has all of its 5G deployment ahead of it. MEA includes markets with very underdeveloped fixed network infrastructure, and increased data center & subsea investment underway should help spur this along.

The telecom industry will continue to shrink headcount, dropping employees from 5.09M in 2019, to 4.77M this year, and further to 4.44M by 2026. The average employee will cost more, though, as the skillsets required to build and run tomorrow's networks are far different and also pricier. Telco labor cost per employee was US$53.1K in 2019, $54.5K in 2020, about $58K in 2021, and will rise further to $77K by 2026. As a result, the share of operating expenses (opex) (excluding depreciation & amortization) devoted to labor costs will also rise, up from 22% this year to 24% in 2026.

Webscale capex likely to pass $250B by 2026 as revenues approach $3.5 trillion

The webscale sector saw incredible growth rates in 2021 on the back of changes wrought by COVID: cloud services adoption, ecommerce spreading far and wide, and a strong digital ad market. Adoption of 5G devices has also helped one key webscaler, Apple. As a result, total webscale revenues exploded from $1.71T in 2020 to about $2.14T in 2021. Growth will slow but the sector will continue to leverage its scale and cash to push into new markets, with 2026 revenues likely to reach about $3.46T. Capex also spiked in 2021, likely to end the year at about $167B (2020: $134B), and will hit about $253B by 2026 even with significant slowdown in growth. About 45% of the 2026 capex budget will for Network, IT and software investments, from about 41% in 2021 when ecommerce-related investments were relatively important.

While webscalers have different business models, they all need massive data center-centric networks to support their operations. Webscalers continue to build out huge facilities at the core, across the globe, and also building out network edges to improve resiliency, latency and coverage. They're also investing heavily in new technologies for their data centers, to economically support their growth and deliver new services and network functions. US-based webscalers have been doing this for many years, and Facebook announced a big new capex push for 2022 recently aimed at implementing more AI/ML capabilities in its facilities, to support "ranking and recommendations for experiences across" its products. Increasingly the Chinese players are getting in the self-design game. At Alibaba's recent Apsara conference, for instance, the company unveiled several new proprietary products, including the Yitian 710 server chip, the X-Dragon architecture, the Panjiu cloud-native server series, Alibaba AI and big data platform and a new generation of PolarDB database.

Carrier-neutral the smallest market but plays key role, will grow capex share to 9% by 2026

As we discussed in a mid-2021 report, the carrier-neutral sector is currently seeing a transformation driven by the desire to integrate multiple types of assets under one roof. That includes companies acquiring across traditional asset boundaries, such as the recent American Tower-CoreSite acquisition, and the investments by private equity firms to invest across asset classes. There will be bumps in the road as a new breed of CNNOs emerge, but they are likely to play even more important roles in the network infrastructure market within 2-3 years. Their integrated offerings will prove attractive to both telcos and webscalers, for financial and operational reasons, and allow them to focus more on their core businesses.

The CNNO segment is the smallest we cover, but its revenues will more than double between the 2020 base of $76 billion to reach roughly $155B by 2026. Their capex will come close to doubling, up from $29B in 2020 (6.4% of the combined telco/webscale/CNNO total) to about $56B in 2026 (8.9% of total). Much of the CNNOs' capex is devoted to real estate and low-tech investments, but they will also invest significant sums on transport, IP, and other types of network infrastructure. Digital Realty, for instance, recently signed a data center interconnect deal with Ciena.

CNNOs' power management strategies will also be key to helping the network operator market improve its carbon footprint. In fact, sustainability is a common investment theme cutting across all three types of network operators. Telcos are most important, as they have the oldest, most complex networks and also the biggest opportunity for improvement. Across the key segments, most key network operators publish sustainability reports and have stated targets for carbon neutrality and/or net zero status. In the past, energy cost savings was the key motivator. Increasingly, though, key executives across the network operator industry are addressing sustainability as a moral issue which requires urgent attention, and investment - these leaders should be applauded.

Coverage:

This forecast report addresses three large segments of network operators, covering nearly 200 operators in total, specifically:

  • American Tower(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • Arqiva(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • Balitower(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • Bharti Infratel(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • Cellnex(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • China Tower(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • Chorus Limited (Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • Cogent(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • CoreSite Realty(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • Crown Castle(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • CyrusOne(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • Digital Realty(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • DuPont Fabros(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • EI Towers(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • Equinix(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • GDS Data Centers(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • GTL Infrastructure(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • GTT Communications (Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • Internap(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • Interxion(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • Inti Bangun Sejahtera(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • Inwit(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • Level 3(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • Lumos(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • NBN Australia(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • QTS Realty(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • Sarana Menara Nusantara(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • SBA Communications(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • Solusi Tunas Pratama(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • Superloop(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • Switch(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • TDF Infrastructure/Arcus(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • Telesites(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • Telxius/Telefonica(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • Tower Bersama Infrastructure(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • Uniti Group(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • Zayo(Segment: Carrier-neutral)
  • A1 Telekom Austria(Segment: Telco)
  • Advanced Info Service (AIS)(Segment: Telco)
  • Airtel(Segment: Telco)
  • Altice Europe(Segment: Telco)
  • Altice USA(Segment: Telco)
  • America Movil(Segment: Telco)
  • AT&T(Segment: Telco)
  • Axiata(Segment: Telco)
  • Axtel(Segment: Telco)
  • Batelco(Segment: Telco)
  • BCE(Segment: Telco)
  • Bezeq Israel(Segment: Telco)
  • Bouygues Telecom(Segment: Telco)
  • BSNL(Segment: Telco)
  • BT(Segment: Telco)
  • Cable ONE, Inc. (Segment: Telco)
  • Cablevision(Segment: Telco)
  • Cell C(Segment: Telco)
  • Cellcom Israel(Segment: Telco)
  • CenturyLink(Segment: Telco)
  • Cequel Communications(Segment: Telco)
  • Charter Communications(Segment: Telco)
  • China Broadcasting Network(Segment: Telco)
  • China Mobile(Segment: Telco)
  • China Telecom(Segment: Telco)
  • China Unicom(Segment: Telco)
  • Chunghwa Telecom(Segment: Telco)
  • Cincinatti Bell(Segment: Telco)
  • CK Hutchison(Segment: Telco)
  • Clearwire(Segment: Telco)
  • Cogeco(Segment: Telco)
  • Com Hem Holding AB (Segment: Telco)
  • Comcast(Segment: Telco)
  • Consolidated Communications(Segment: Telco)
  • Cyfrowy Polsat (Segment: Telco)
  • DEN Networks Limited (Segment: Telco)
  • Deutsche Telekom(Segment: Telco)
  • Digi Communications(Segment: Telco)
  • DirecTV(Segment: Telco)
  • Dish Network(Segment: Telco)
  • Dish TV India Limited (Segment: Telco)
  • DNA Ltd. (Segment: Telco)
  • Du(Segment: Telco)
  • EE(Segment: Telco)
  • Elisa(Segment: Telco)
  • Entel(Segment: Telco)
  • Etisalat(Segment: Telco)
  • Fairpoint Communications(Segment: Telco)
  • Far EasTone Telecommunications Co., Ltd. (Segment: Telco)
  • Frontier Communications(Segment: Telco)
  • Globe Telecom(Segment: Telco)
  • Grupo Clarin(Segment: Telco)
  • Grupo Televisa(Segment: Telco)
  • Hathway Cable & Datacom Limited (Segment: Telco)
  • Idea Cellular Limited (Segment: Telco)
  • Iliad SA(Segment: Telco)
  • KDDI(Segment: Telco)
  • KPN(Segment: Telco)
  • KT(Segment: Telco)
  • Leap Wireless(Segment: Telco)
  • LG Uplus(Segment: Telco)
  • Liberty Global(Segment: Telco)
  • M1(Segment: Telco)
  • Manitoba Telecom Services(Segment: Telco)
  • Maroc Telecom(Segment: Telco)
  • Maxis Berhad (Segment: Telco)
  • Megafon(Segment: Telco)
  • MetroPCS Communications(Segment: Telco)
  • Millicom(Segment: Telco)
  • Mobile Telesystems(Segment: Telco)
  • MTN Group(Segment: Telco)
  • MTNL(Segment: Telco)
  • NTT(Segment: Telco)
  • Oi(Segment: Telco)
  • Omantel(Segment: Telco)
  • Ono(Segment: Telco)
  • Ooredoo(Segment: Telco)
  • Orange(Segment: Telco)
  • PCCW(Segment: Telco)
  • PLDT(Segment: Telco)
  • Proximus(Segment: Telco)
  • Quebecor Telecommunications(Segment: Telco)
  • Rakuten(Segment: Telco)
  • Reliance Communications Limited (Segment: Telco)
  • Reliance Jio(Segment: Telco)
  • Rogers(Segment: Telco)
  • Rostelecom (Segment: Telco)
  • Safaricom Limited (Segment: Telco)
  • Sasktel(Segment: Telco)
  • Shaw(Segment: Telco)
  • Singtel(Segment: Telco)
  • SITI Networks Limited (Segment: Telco)
  • SK Telecom(Segment: Telco)
  • Sky plc(Segment: Telco)
  • SmarTone (Segment: Telco)
  • SoftBank(Segment: Telco)
  • Spark New Zealand Limited (Segment: Telco)
  • Sprint(Segment: Telco)
  • StarHub(Segment: Telco)
  • STC (Saudi Telecom)(Segment: Telco)
  • SureWest Communications(Segment: Telco)
  • Swisscom(Segment: Telco)
  • Taiwan Mobile(Segment: Telco)
  • Tata Communications(Segment: Telco)
  • Tata Teleservices(Segment: Telco)
  • TDC(Segment: Telco)
  • TDS(Segment: Telco)
  • Tele2 AB (Segment: Telco)
  • Telecom Argentina(Segment: Telco)
  • Telecom Egypt(Segment: Telco)
  • Telecom Italia(Segment: Telco)
  • Telefonica(Segment: Telco)
  • Telekom Malaysia Berhad (Segment: Telco)
  • Telenor(Segment: Telco)
  • Telia(Segment: Telco)
  • Telkom Indonesia(Segment: Telco)
  • Telkom SA(Segment: Telco)
  • Telstra(Segment: Telco)
  • Telus(Segment: Telco)
  • Thaicom(Segment: Telco)
  • Time Warner(Segment: Telco)
  • Time Warner Cable(Segment: Telco)
  • TPG Telecom Limited (Segment: Telco)
  • True Corp(Segment: Telco)
  • Turk Telekom(Segment: Telco)
  • Turkcell(Segment: Telco)
  • Veon(Segment: Telco)
  • Verizon(Segment: Telco)
  • Virgin Media(Segment: Telco)
  • Vivendi(Segment: Telco)
  • Vodafone(Segment: Telco)
  • Vodafone Idea Limited(Segment: Telco)
  • VodafoneZiggo(Segment: Telco)
  • Wind Tre(Segment: Telco)
  • Windstream(Segment: Telco)
  • Zain(Segment: Telco)
  • Zain KSA(Segment: Telco)
  • Ziggo(Segment: Telco)
  • Alibaba(Segment: Webscaler)
  • Alphabet(Segment: Webscaler)
  • Altaba(Segment: Webscaler)
  • Amazon(Segment: Webscaler)
  • Apple(Segment: Webscaler)
  • Baidu(Segment: Webscaler)
  • ChinaCache(Segment: Webscaler)
  • Cognizant(Segment: Webscaler)
  • eBay(Segment: Webscaler)
  • Facebook(Segment: Webscaler)
  • Fujitsu(Segment: Webscaler)
  • HPE(Segment: Webscaler)
  • IBM(Segment: Webscaler)
  • JD.COM(Segment: Webscaler)
  • LinkedIn(Segment: Webscaler)
  • Microsoft(Segment: Webscaler)
  • Oracle(Segment: Webscaler)
  • SAP(Segment: Webscaler)
  • Tencent(Segment: Webscaler)
  • Twitter(Segment: Webscaler)
  • Yandex(Segment: Webscaler)

Table of Contents

  • 1. Abstract
  • 2. Telco Market Forecast
  • 3. Webscale Market Forecast
  • 4. Carrier-neutral Market Forecast
  • 5. About

Figures

Totals for all operators

  • Revenue by operator type, 2011-26 (US$B)
  • Capex by operator type, 2011-26 (US$B)
  • Capex by operator type, 2011-26: % of total
  • Capital intensity by operator type, 2011-26
  • Employees by operator type (M)
  • Revenues/employee by operator type (US$K)
  • Capex forecast by segment: Dec 2021 vs. Dec 2020 outlook, % difference
  • Capex forecast by segment: Dec 2021 vs. Dec 2020 outlook, $B difference

Telco forecast

  • Telcos: Revenues ($B) vs. capital intensity
  • Software capex in US$B and as % of total capex
  • Telco opex components, 2020 vs. 2026
  • Telcos: Capex and network operations opex ($B)
  • Telcos: Employees vs. average labor cost per employee ($K)
  • Telcos: Labor cost opex in US$B and as % of Opex ex-D&A
  • Telco margins, actual and predicted
  • Dec 2021 vs. Dec 2020 forecast: % changes in key metrics

Telco forecast by region

  • Revenues by region: 2014, 2020, and 2026 (US$B)
  • Capex by region: 2014, 2020, and 2026 (US$B)
  • Telcos: capital intensity by region
  • Capex by region, % global
  • Capex by region: Dec 2021 vs Dec 2020 Forecast
  • Average capital intensity, Dec 2021 vs. Dec 2020 forecast

Webscale forecast

  • Webscale revenues and capital intensity
  • Webscale capital intensity by company HQ
  • Webscale capex by company HQ (US$B)
  • Webscale capex by type (US$B)
  • Webscaler R&D as % of revenues by company HQ
  • Webscale revenue per employee ($K) by company HQ
  • Percent change in outlook, Dec 2021 vs. Dec 2020 forecast
  • Webscale capex by type: % change in forecast, 12/21 v. 12/20

Carrier-neutral forecast

  • Carrier-neutral operators: Revenues and capital intensity
  • CNNO employees and revenues per employee
  • CNNO Towers and Tenancy Ratio
  • CNNO data center footprint, net rentable square feet (M)
  • Percent difference in key metrics: Dec 2021 vs. Dec 2020 forecast
  • CNNO Capex ($B): Dec 2021 vs. Dec 2020 Forecast
  • Capital intensity: 2011-20 by segment and 2021-26 industry average
  • CNNO capex by segment, 2011-20 (US$B)
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