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통신사업자(Telco) 설비 투자(capex) 해설 : 2020년 1분기

Commentary - Telco Capex in 1Q20: Although Telco Capex Recorded a Surprisingly Stable ~1% Decline in 1Q20, COVID-19 and Huawei Disruptions are Slowing the March to 5G

리서치사 MTN Consulting, LLC
발행일 2020년 06월 상품 코드 949212
페이지 정보 영문 5 Pages
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통신사업자(Telco) 설비 투자(capex) 해설 : 2020년 1분기 Commentary - Telco Capex in 1Q20: Although Telco Capex Recorded a Surprisingly Stable ~1% Decline in 1Q20, COVID-19 and Huawei Disruptions are Slowing the March to 5G
발행일 : 2020년 06월 페이지 정보 : 영문 5 Pages

세계의 통신사업자(Telco) 설비 투자(capex)는 2020년 1분기(1Q20)에 약 1.3%(전년대비) 감소해 702억 달러를 기록했습니다. 1Q20 Telco 매출은 4,463억 달러로 capex보다 약간 빠르게 감소하고, 1Q19에서 2.2% 감소했습니다. 많은 전화회사는 광범위한 COVID-19 락다운의 기회와 자택에서의 일( 또는 공부)로의 급속한 이동을 목격했으며, 기회 수용에 있어서 새로운 네트워크 투자가 필요해졌습니다. 많은 국가에서 통신 건설을 필수 서비스로서 정부 분류에 추가하고, 자기 설치 및 자동화된 고객 케어로의 업계의 지속적 이동에 의해 락다운의 최악의 영향은 일부 완화되고 있습니다.

통신사업자(Telco) 설비 투자(capex)에 대해 조사했으며, COVID-19에 의한 영향, 성장 전망, 향후 동향, 주요 기업 개요 등의 정보를 제공합니다.

조사 범위

본 보고서 게재 기업

  • AT&T
  • Ericsson
  • KDDI
  • OECD
  • BT
  • Google
  • Netflix
  • SMIC
  • Charter Communications
  • Huawei
  • Nokia
  • TSMC
  • Deutsche Telekom
  • IMF
  • NTT
  • Verizon

목차

  • 개요
  • 1Q의 네트워크 투자에 미치는 COVID-19의 영향
  • Huawei와 비지니스 모델 주위의 불확실성에 의한 4G로부터 5G로의 이동 둔화
  • 대규모 락다운에 의한 경제 효과
  • Telcos의 낙관적 예측에 반하는 하반기 약한 성장 전망
  • 향후에 대한 기대
  • 부록
KSM 20.08.03

Telecom network operator (telco) capital expenditures (capex) declined by approximately 1.3% year-over-year (YoY) to $70.2 billion in the first quarter of 2020 (1Q20), not nearly as bad as many expected. Telco revenues in 1Q20 were $446.3 billion, dropping a bit faster than capex, down 2.2% from 1Q19. That disparity pushed the average 12-month capital intensity for the telco sector up slightly, to 16.35% from 16.31% in 4Q19. Amid the attempt to slow the spread of COVID-19, many telcos saw opportunities in the widespread lockdowns and rapid shift to working (and studying) from home, and embracing these opportunities required new network investment. Government classification of telecom construction as an "essential service" in many countries, plus the industry's ongoing shift towards self-installation and automated customer care, helped to moderate some of the worst effects of the lockdowns.

Supply chain constraints related to COVID-19's spread appeared to be far more of a factor for vendors trying to assemble and ship gear than for telcos trying to install it; in the short run, a slowdown in government action on permitting and auctions has been a bigger concern. For network spending, the second quarter is likely to be significantly worse in a number of country markets, including the United States, and the overall network investment outlook for 2H20 is muddled. In earnings calls, many large telcos predicted that the worst of the crisis would be over with the closing of 2Q, but that they are retaining flexibility in their 2020 capex plans in order to deal with the uncertainty.

Coverage:

Organizations mentioned in this report include:

  • AT&T
  • Ericsson
  • KDDI
  • OECD
  • BT
  • Google
  • Netflix
  • SMIC
  • Charter Communications
  • Huawei
  • Nokia
  • TSMC
  • Deutsche Telekom
  • IMF
  • NTT
  • Verizon

Table of Contents

  • Summary (page 2)
  • Supply side data suggests COVID-19 had minimal net effect on network investment in 1Q (page 2)
  • Progression from 4G to 5G slowed by uncertainty around Huawei and business models (page 3)
  • The economic effect of the "great lockdown" (page 3)
  • Telcos are trying to be optimistic but 2H outlook is weak (page 4)
  • What to expect (page 4)
  • Appendix (page 5)

Figures

  • Figure 1: Single quarter capex, YoY % change: Telco v. Webscale
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