세계의 소형 자율주행차 시장 : 소비자용 및 상용 예측(2023-2035년)

Light duty automated vehicles (LDAVs) are expected to experience steady growth in sales from 2023 through 2035. Importantly, in that timeframe, LDAVs with Level 4 (L4) and higher automation (hands-off, eyes-off, brain-off) will begin to enter the market. These are vehicles that can, in specific areas or use cases, drive without human intervention. The market implications of this technology are vast, and there are many factors driving its development, as well as several that could hold it back.

This Guidehouse Insights report examines the burgeoning market for L4 LDAVs and their penetration of the light duty vehicle (LDV) market, looking at the drivers of this emerging market as well as the barriers that could stop its growth. It predicts how the LDAV market will grow from 2023 through 2035 as well as the annual revenue automakers can expect from implementing the hardware needed for L4 autonomy. Guidehouse Insights also predicts what percentage of L4 LDAVs will be consumer vehicles versus commercial robotaxis or delivery vehicles.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

• 1.1 Overview
• 1.2 Market Drivers
• 1.3 Market Barriers
• 1.4 Market Outlook

2. Market Issues

• 2.1 Drivers
  • 2.1.1 Technology Maturation
  • 2.1.2 Market Consolidation
  • 2.1.3 Regulatory Environment
  • 2.1.4 Safety Improvements
• 2.2 Barriers
  • 2.2.1 Technology Nascency
  • 2.2.2 ODD Development Differences
  • 2.2.3 Public Perception
  • 2.2.4 Safety and Responsibility
• 2.3 Pricing

3. Industry Value Chain

• 3.1 Competitive Landscape
• 3.2 Business Model Evolution

4. Market Forecasts

• 4.1 Methodology
• 4.2 LDV Forecast
• 4.3 L4 LDAV Forecast
• 4.4 OEM Revenue Forecast for L4
• 4.5 OEM Revenue Forecast for L4 over L3
• 4.6 L4 Deployment by Vehicle Classification

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

• 5.1 Three Big Predictions
• 5.2 Recommendations
  • 5.2.1 Automakers
  • 5.2.2 Regulators
  • 5.2.3 Ride-Hailing Operators

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List

7. Table of Contents

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study

10. Sources, Methodology & Notes