전기자동차(EV) 지역별 전망 - 북미 : 미국 및 캐나다의 소형 플러그인 EV 및 EVSE, 주별, 지역별, 대도시권별 예측(2023-2032년)

Sales of plug-in EVs (PEVs) in North America have seen significant increases in 2022 and 2023. In the first three quarters of 2023, PEV sales exceeded the 2022 total and in the US, the third quarter of 2023 saw more than 300,000 PEVs sold for the first time in a quarter. PEVs are now a significant piece of the North American new vehicle market and poised to continue growing as the industry transitions to greater levels of electrification.

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 revised the clean vehicle credit program starting in 2023, and will further strengthen PEV sales, especially as local battery production and new raw material supply chains, which are required to qualify for these credits, come online. Guidehouse Insights expects automakers to prioritize new models, and specifically battery EVs (BEVs). Despite automakers revising their production targets because of concerns about high interest rates and the volatility of battery raw material costs, several PEV models saw price cuts in 2023 as sales continued growing.

This Guidehouse Insights report analyzes EV technology innovations, incentives, policies, and vehicle availability to forecast PEV adoption in the US and Canada on national, state/province, and sub-state/province levels. The forecasts are driven by battery pack and technology innovations, fuel prices, model availability, and zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandates. They include passenger car and light truck breakouts in addition to powertrain breakouts by plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) and BEVs. Forecasts for deployment of EV Supply Equipment (EVSE) is also included. EVSE deployments are segmented by technology-Level 1 (L1), Level 2 (L2), and DC fast chargers-and use cases, including fleet, market, multiuse dwellings (MUD), single-use dwelling (SUD), SUD-shared, and workplace.

Table of Contents

. Executive Summary

• 1.1 Introduction
• 1.2 Market Forecast

2. Market Issues

• 2.1 Introduction
• 2.2 Market Drivers, Barriers, and Updates
  • 2.2.1 Battery Pack Prices
  • 2.2.2 Fuel Prices
  • 2.2.3 Automotive OEM PEV Investment
  • 2.2.4 Model Availability
  • 2.2.5 PEV Policy Environment
  • 2.2.6 EVSE Policy Environment

3. Industry Value Chain

• 3.1 Competitive Landscape
• 3.2 Pictorial Representation of the Value Chain
• 3.3 Business Model Evolution
  • 3.3.1 Onshoring Production
  • 3.3.2 Supply Chain Consolidation

4. Forecast Methodolgy

• 4.1 Vehicle Analytics and Simulation Tool Model Overview
  • 4.1.1 Long-Run Market Share: Competition between Powertrains
  • 4.1.2 Fueling Infrastructure and Vehicle Adoption
  • 4.1.3 Vehicle Sales Forecast and Model Calibration
  • 4.1.4 Geographic Specificity
• 4.2 The VAST Charger Siting Module Overview

5. Market Forecasts

• 5.1 Introduction
• 5.2 US
  • 5.2.1 PEV Forecasts
  • 5.2.2 EVSE Forecasts
  • 5.2.3 State Forecasts
  • 5.2.4 Top 10 Metropolitan Areas
• 5.3 Canada
  • 5.3.1 PEV Forecasts
  • 5.3.2 EVSE Forecasts
  • 5.3.3 Provincial Forecasts
  • 5.3.4 Top 10 Metropolitan Areas

6. Conclusions and Recommendations

• 6.1 Three Big Takeaways
• 6.2 Recommendations
  • 6.2.1 Automakers
  • 6.2.2 Governments
  • 6.2.3 EVSE Companies and Manufacturers

7. Acronym and Abbreviation List

8. Table of Contents

9. Table of Charts and Figures

10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes