세계의 자동 대중 교통 시장 - 자동 교통 버스 및 셔틀 버스, 시장 예측(2024-2033년)

Vehicle automation has been the white whale of developers for decades. Now, fully driverless light duty vehicles (LDVs) are beginning to proliferate in certain cities and markets. Where this technology has not been utilized, however, is in the transit space. Automated public transit offers many of the benefits of LDV automation and offers a few more. The limited operational design domain of transit vehicles means fewer exceptions to interrupt the vehicle. Transit vehicles also typically follow lower speed routes, reducing harm in the event of a crash. In addition, automation can potentially solve many of the staffing issues transit agencies currently face in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, allowing drivers to be trained more to focus on passengers' riding experience.

Automated public transit is still in the nascent stages of market development, with just over 300 hands-off, eyes-off, brain-off automated transit vehicles expected to be sold in 2024. However, that number is expected to grow to over 11,500 vehicles sold in 2033. While automated public transit is still a small segment of the overall transit vehicles market, it is expected to see significant growth over the next decade.

This Guidehouse Insights report provides automated public transit market forecasts, a deep dive into the drivers and barriers to adoption, and an industry value chain analysis. It provides sales and revenue forecasts for transit automation segmented into the two main vehicle sizes for the 10-year period from 2024-2033. These forecasts are further segmented by region and use case.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

• 1.1 Market Overview
• 1.2 Scope
• 1.3 Market Forecast

2. Market Issues

• 2.1 Drivers
  • 2.1.1 Workforce Reductions
  • 2.1.2 Safety
  • 2.1.3 Cost Savings
  • 2.1.4 Limited Operating Spaces
  • 2.1.5 Accessibility
• 2.2 Barriers
  • 2.2.1 Regulations
  • 2.2.2 Cost
  • 2.2.3 Public Perception
  • 2.2.4 Transit Agency Inertia
• 2.3 Pricing
• 2.4 Other Business Issues

3. Industry Value Chain

• 3.1 Competitive Landscape
  • 3.1.1 Business Model Evolution

4. Market Forecasts

• 4.1 Forecast Methodology
• 4.2 Market Forecasts
  • 4.2.1 Global Bus Market
  • 4.2.2 Global Transit Bus Market
  • 4.2.3 Global Shuttle Bus Market
  • 4.2.4 Automated Transit Bus Sales
  • 4.2.5 Automated Transit Bus Revenue
  • 4.2.6 Automated Shuttle Bus Sales
  • 4.2.7 Automated Shuttle Bus Revenue
• 4.3 Automated Shuttle Bus Use Case Forecasts
  • 4.3.1 Automated Shuttle Buses for Transit
  • 4.3.2 Automated Shuttle Buses as People Movers
  • 4.3.3 Automated Shuttle Buses for Paratransit

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

• 5.1 Three Big Takeaways
• 5.2 Recommendations
  • 5.2.1 Transit Operators
  • 5.2.2 Bus OEMs
  • 5.2.3 Vehicle Automation Developers
  • 5.2.4 Housing Developers

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List

7. Table of Contents

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes