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Industry experts expect long-haul trucks to be among the last automotive sectors to electrify due to their high purchase cost and the lack of available charging infrastructure. In 2023, only 500 semitruck sales out of 125,000 in the US were EVs. Over the next 10 years, the primary driver for electric semi sales will be state-level zero emissions vehicle sales mandates such as California's Advanced Clean Trucks regulation. After 2035, sales are likely to be driven by reductions in battery costs and a more established charging infrastructure.

The challenge of providing power for en route charging means a high level of uncertainty around the number of corridor ports and their rated capacity. Under one scenario, truck stops would only have ultrafast megawatt charging, and charging would take a similar amount of time as refueling a diesel tank. Another scenario would entail a combination of megawatt chargers for trucks continuing on their way and slower chargers for trucks parking for longer periods. Rolling out long-haul electrification will require addressing this challenge as well as determining the number of truck stops necessary for electric semis.

This Guidehouse Insights report analyzes the US long-haul trucking market and its potential for electrification over the next decade. It provides deployment and sales forecasts for long-haul trucks in the US from 2024-2033, broken down by powertrain and region, and forecasts for the charging infrastructure and energy needed to support electrified long-haul trucking operations for the same time period, broken down by region and use case.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

• 1.1 Long-Haul Charging Infrastructure
• 1.2 Long-Haul Electrification Impacts

2. Market Issues

• 2.1 Drivers
  • 2.1.1 Policy Mandates
    • 2.1.1.1 Advanced Clean Trucks
    • 2.1.1.2 Advanced Clean Fleets
  • 2.1.2 Cost Reductions
• 2.2 Barriers
  • 2.2.1 Purchase Price
  • 2.2.2 Infrastructure
    • 2.2.2.1 Market Manipulation
  • 2.2.3 Limited Production Capacity
  • 2.2.4 Vehicle Weight

3. Industry Value Chain

• 3.1 Competitive Landscape
  • 3.1.1 Hydrogen Fuel Cell Trucks
  • 3.1.2 M&A Activities
  • 3.1.3 Business Model Evolution

4. Market Forecasts

• 4.1 BEV Adoption
• 4.2 Individually Owned Trucks
  • 4.2.1 Individually Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service
  • 4.2.2 Individually Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales
• 4.3 Fleet-Owned Trucks
  • 4.3.1 Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Trucks in Service
  • 4.3.2 Fleet-Owned Long-Haul Truck Sales
• 4.4 Energy Use for Long-Haul Truck Charging
• 4.5 Charging Port Deployment for Long-Haul Trucks

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

• 5.1 Three Big Takeaways
• 5.2 Recommendations
  • 5.2.1 Fleet Managers
  • 5.2.2 OEMs
  • 5.2.3 Truck Stop Operators
  • 5.2.4 Utilities
  • 5.2.5 Government Agencies

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List

7. Table of Contents

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes