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디지털 통화 채굴 시장 전망 : 유틸리티 사업자 및 하드웨어 공급업체의 향후 설계

Utilities and Hardware Suppliers Should Plan for a Future Without Digital Currency Mining

리서치사 Navigant Research
발행일 2019년 03월 상품 코드 813703
페이지 정보 영문 22 Pages; 11 Tables, Charts & Figures
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디지털 통화 채굴 시장 전망 : 유틸리티 사업자 및 하드웨어 공급업체의 향후 설계 Utilities and Hardware Suppliers Should Plan for a Future Without Digital Currency Mining
발행일 : 2019년 03월 페이지 정보 : 영문 22 Pages; 11 Tables, Charts & Figures

디지털 통화 채굴(Digital Currency Mining) 시장은 기술적 변화 및 기타 요인에 의해 향후 10년간 축소될 가능성이 높은 것으로 간주되고 있습니다.

디지털 통화 채굴 시장의 전망을 복수의 성장 시나리오로부터 검증했으며, 디지털 통화 채굴 및 POW(Proof of Work)의 개요, POW 합의 알고리즘에 의한 전력 소비의 증대, 디지털 통화 채굴 시장의 향후 불투명성·불확정성, 유틸리티 사업자 및 하드웨어 공급업체의 향후 성장을 위해 취해야 할 준비·대책 등을 정리하여 전해드립니다.

목차

  • 제안
  • POW(Proof of Work) : 에너지 집약형 합의 알고리즘
    • 합의 알고리즘과 분산형 네트워크
    • POW : 보수를 위한 전력 투자 노드를 필요로 한다.
      • 채굴 노드 : 거래의 밸리데이션·블록에 대한 그룹화
      • 채굴 노드 : 블록을 분산형 대장에 추가할 권리를 위해 싸운다.
      • 네트워크 : 사기 거래 및 변조 데이터를 포함한 블록을 거부
    • POW에 의한 합의 해결의 중요성
  • 급격한 부하 증대를 초래한 디지털 통화의 높은 평가
    • 전력 소비의 확대와 피드백 루프
  • 디지털 통화 채굴의 비기존형 부하 특성
    • 전력 비용과 운영 비용
    • 디지털 통화 채굴자와 전력 비용 축소의 장려책
    • 디지털 통화 채굴자 : 기존 산업 고객에 비해 비안정적
  • 디지털 통화 채굴 : 불투명한 장래성
    • 축소 동향의 디지털 통화 채굴 시장
    • 전력 소비 성장에 대한 영향요인
      • 한때 디지털 통화 채굴을 장려한 법규제 : 현재는 철수 동향
      • POW : 이미 구식인 기술
  • 유틸리티 사업자 : 몇가지의 향후 시나리오를 준비해야 한다.
    • 유틸리티 사업자 : 패닉에 빠지지 않아야 한다.
      • 하드웨어 공급업체 : 새로운 성장 시장을 모색해야 한다.
      • 유틸리티 사업자 : 디지털 통화 채굴을 지원하는 신규 인프라에는 투자하지 말아야 한다.
      • 투자자·파트너 : 그린워싱을 경계해야 한다.
      • 디지털 통화 채굴자 : 백업 플랜이 필요
      • 블록체인 기술·디지털 통화 : 분리하여 생각해야 한다.
KSA 19.04.08

List of Charts and Figures

  • Monthly Revenue Potential, Bitcoin Network: January 2015-December 2018
  • Online Computing Power and Proof of Work Difficulty, Bitcoin Network: January 2015-December 2018
  • Estimated Historical Electricity Consumption, Bitcoin Network: 2015-2018
  • The Antminer S-9, a Dedicated Digital Currency Mining Node
  • Regional Vulnerability to Digital Currency Mining, Europe
  • Regional Vulnerability to Digital Currency Mining, US
  • NordCoin Module with Integrated Digital Currency Mining Hardware and Cooling Systems
  • Dollar Value of Bitcoin by Growth Scenario, Bitcoin Network: 2019-2028
  • Revenue Potential Growth Scenarios, Bitcoin Network: 2019-2028
  • Bitcoin Mining Electricity Consumption Scenarios, Bitcoin Network: 2014-2028

List of Tables

  • Bitcoin Mining Block Reward Schedule: 2008-2024 (Approximate)

Digital currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced a surge in valuation in 2017 and 2018. The extraordinary revenue potential associated with digitally mining these currencies led to the growth of a new and unprecedented industry with a prevailing incentive to minimize electricity costs. With surprising rapidity, digital currency miners built large data centers full of power-hungry devices solely focused on performing calculations specified by Bitcoin's proof of work consensus algorithm.

The new industry had a marked impact on a handful of utility systems, as large-scale operations were established in cool regions with low average electricity prices. High electricity demand strained existing infrastructure and exposed vulnerabilities in these systems. The rise and fall of the digital currency mining industry contains lessons for utilities, which must make resource allocation decisions on a longtime horizon, and hardware suppliers and manufacturers, which must recognize that the digital currency market is time-limited and likely unsustainable. According to Navigant Research, the market for digital currency mining is likely to decline over the next 10 years due to technological shifts and other factors.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the drivers of the digital currency market, including utility systems most heavily affected by its growth. The study forecasts five scenarios for the growth of the digital currency mining market from 2019 to 2028 in terms of potential revenue and electricity consumption. The report examines the key factors that make low or negative growth scenarios most probable and makes recommendations for both utilities and hardware suppliers.

Key Questions Addressed:

  • What is digital currency mining, and what is proof of work?
  • What are the incentive structures and principles that led to rapid and unconventional load growth?
  • Why was the digital currency mining industry particularly challenging for utilities and regulators?
  • Will the digital currency mining market experience similar growth in the future?
  • What are the characteristics of utilities most heavily affected by digital currency mining?
  • What are the implications of digital currency mining for the wider energy blockchain industry?

Who Needs This Report:

  • Central processing unit (CPU) manufacturers
  • Graphical processing unit (GPU) manufacturers
  • Digital currency mining hardware manufacturers
  • Distribution utilities
  • Public utility commissions
  • Resource planners
  • Investor community

Table Of Contents

  • Spark
  • Context
  • Recommendations
  • Proof of Work Is an Energy-Intensive Consensus Algorithm
    • Consensus Algorithms Keep Decentralized Networks on the Same Page
    • Proof of Work Requires Nodes to Invest Power for a Chance at Reward
      • Mining Nodes Validate Transactions and Group Them Into Blocks
      • Mining Nodes Compete for the Right to Add Their Block to the Distributed Ledger
      • The Network Will Reject Blocks That Include Fraudulent Transactions or Manipulated Data
    • Why Solve Consensus with Proof of Work?
  • High Digital Currency Valuation Caused Rapid Load Growth
    • Increasing Electricity Consumption Creates a Feedback Loop
  • Digital Currency Mining Has Unconventional Load Characteristics
    • Electricity Costs Are a Disproportionately High Fraction of Operating Costs
    • Digital Currency Miners Have a Prevailing Incentive to Minimize Electricity Costs
    • Digital Currency Miners Are Highly Mobile Relative to Traditional Industrial Customers
  • Digital Currency Mining Has an Uncertain Future
    • The Market for Digital Currency Mining Is Likely to Shrink
    • A Range of Factors Influence Growth in Electricity Consumption
      • Regulations That Once Encouraged Digital Currency Mining Are Being Withdrawn
      • Proof of Work Is Already an Outdated Technology
  • Utilities Must Prepare for a Range of Future Scenarios
    • Utilities Should Not Panic
    • But They Must Be Prepared
      • Hardware Suppliers Must Look to New Markets for Growth
      • Utilities Must Not Invest in New Infrastructure to Support Digital Currency Mining
      • Investors and Partners Must Be Wary of Greenwashing
      • Digital Currency Miners Need a Backup Plan
      • Blockchain Technology and Digital Currencies Must Be Viewed Separately
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