세계의 1-옥텐 수요 분석 : 유형별, 용도별, 예측 분석(2034년)

The global Octene-1 market is expected to grow steadily, with its value projected to rise from USD 1.2 billion in 2023 to USD 1.4 billion by 2032, reflecting a CAGR of around 2.6%. This growth trajectory is primarily driven by rising demand for Octene-1 across various end-use industries, notably polyethylene production, plastomers, linear alcohols, and lubricants. Octene-1, also known as 1-octene, is a higher alpha-olefin characterized by a double bond positioned at the alpha (first) carbon atom, making it a valuable chemical intermediate in numerous industrial processes.

Production Processes and Technologies

Octene-1 production predominantly relies on two commercial routes: oligomerization of ethylene and the Fisher-Tropsch (FT) process. The oligomerization of ethylene is the more widely used approach and involves multiple proprietary technologies such as the Ethyl Corporation Process by INEOS, the Shell Higher Olefin Process (SHOP) by Shell Oil Company, the Gulf process by Chevron Phillips Chemical Company, the Sablin process by Sabic-Linde, and the Idemitsu Petrochemical process. Among these, the SHOP process is particularly common. It operates by passing purified ethylene through an oligomerization reactor, where titanium chloride acts as a catalyst in the presence of an organoaluminum co-catalyst. The reaction is carefully controlled in temperature and pressure to favor the formation of octene-1. The use of inert solvents like heptane or hexane aids in managing the reaction rate by dissipating heat. The resulting mixture of oligomers is separated via fractional distillation, yielding purified octene-1 that meets stringent quality standards.

The Fisher-Tropsch process offers an alternative production pathway by converting synthesis gas derived from coal or methane into fuels and chemicals, from which linear alpha-olefins including octene-1 can be extracted through narrow distillation cuts. Both these production routes contribute to the overall supply of octene-1 but vary in scale, feedstock dependency, and geographic availability.

Market Capacity and Regional Production

The global capacity for octene-1 was estimated at around 1,000 kilotons in 2023, with forecasts projecting a rise beyond 1,300 kilotons by 2032. North America dominates production capacity, led by major chemical companies such as Chevron Phillips Chemical (CPChem), INEOS, and Shell. The United States, with its established petrochemical infrastructure and developed downstream industries, is the largest producer within this region. INEOS Oligomers operates a significant facility in Canada, further consolidating North America's leading position in the global octene-1 market.

Following North America, the Middle East and Africa region ranks as the second-largest producer of octene-1. Key countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and South Africa maintain sizeable production capacities. South Africa's Sasol operates two dedicated octene-1 plants with a combined capacity of approximately 196 kilotons. These facilities capitalize on regional feedstock availability and strategic access to export markets.

Western Europe also holds a significant share of octene-1 production capacity, with facilities located primarily in Belgium and Spain, operated by INEOS Oligomers and Dow Chemical Company respectively. Other regions including Asia Pacific, Central and Eastern Europe, and others hold comparatively smaller capacities but are witnessing incremental growth due to expanding downstream industries.

Demand Dynamics

Octene-1's largest and most dominant application is as a co-monomer in the production of polyethylene, accounting for nearly 80% of the global market. When copolymerized with ethylene, octene-1 imparts enhanced properties such as improved tear resistance, elasticity, and long shelf life to polyethylene products. These enhanced polyethylene variants find widespread use in flexible packaging films, medical devices such as blood bags and catheters, automotive trim, thermal insulation, and sporting goods. The versatility and performance of octene-ethylene copolymers make them indispensable in numerous high-value applications.

Beyond polymers, octene-1 is also a precursor for linear alcohols and lubricants. Through hydroformylation, octene-1 converts to linear aldehydes such as nonanal, which further oxidize to nonanoic acid-a key raw material for lubricant esters. Additionally, hydrogenation of nonanal produces 1-nonanol, a fatty alcohol widely used in plasticizers. Although these applications currently represent a smaller segment of the market, their growing demand in specialty chemical production contributes to overall market stability.

Regional Demand Overview

In terms of consumption, North America leads the global octene-1 demand, driven largely by its advanced polyethylene industry and robust packaging sector. The United States remains the largest market within this region, supported by high per capita plastic consumption exceeding 150 kilograms annually, significantly above the global average. The demand for polyethylene in packaging, automotive, and healthcare sectors underpins this strong market presence.

Western Europe follows as the second-largest consumer, where stringent regulatory standards and innovation in high-performance plastics drive octene-1 demand. Emerging economies in the Asia Pacific region, including India, China, and ASEAN countries, are anticipated to be the fastest-growing markets due to rapid industrialization and expanding applications in automotive, electrical and electronics, construction, and consumer goods industries. The increased adoption of octene-1-based copolymers in these sectors is expected to further accelerate regional demand growth over the forecast period.

Competitive Landscape

The global octene-1 market is led by several major chemical producers, including Shell Oil Company, ExxonMobil, Sasol Limited, INEOS, Sabic, Chevron Phillips Chemical, Dow Chemical Company, Silver Fern Chemical Inc, Evonik, CDH Fine Chemicals, and LG Chemicals. These companies leverage their integrated production capabilities, technological expertise, and strategic regional presence to maintain leadership positions and meet growing global demand.

Market Drivers and Challenges

The growing worldwide demand for plastics, especially polyethylene, serves as the primary driver for the expansion of the octene-1 market. Polyethylene's extensive use in packaging, consumer products, and industrial applications ensures steady consumption of octene-1 as a performance-enhancing co-monomer. The ongoing trend toward lightweight, durable, and recyclable plastics aligns well with octene-1's properties, making it a crucial component in the development of next-generation polymer materials. Such fluctuations impact production costs and market pricing, potentially slowing investment and expansion. Furthermore, competition from other linear alpha-olefins such as butene and hexene poses a substitution risk, particularly in applications where performance differentials are marginal. Environmental regulations and sustainability pressures may also influence market dynamics by encouraging alternative materials or recycling initiatives.

Table of Contents

1. Introduction

• Scope
• Market Coverage
  • Application
  • Regions
  • Countries
• Years Considered
  • Historical - 2018 - 2023
  • Base - 2024
  • Forecast Period - 2025 - 2034
• Research Methodology
  • Approach
  • Research Methodology
  • Prismane Consulting Market Models
  • Assumptions & Limitations
  • Abbreviations & Definitions
  • Conversion Factors
  • Data Sources

2. Market Synopsis

• Market Evolution
• Demand Overview
• Industry Structure
• Strategic Issues
• End-use Trends
• Growth Forecast

3. Economic & Energy Outlook

• GDP and Demographics
• Monetary & Fiscal Policies
• Crude Oil Production and prices
• Natural Gas
• Electricity Prices

4. End-use Sector Performance

• Packaging
• Automotive
• Construction
• Electrical & Electronics
• Consumer Appliances
• Others

5. Introduction to 1-Octene and Market Overview

• Product Description
• Grades & Properties
• Raw Material
• Manufacturing Process
• Environmental Issues
• Value Chain
• Applications

6. Market Dynamics and Industry Trends

• Market Dynamics
  • Drivers
  • Restraints
  • Opportunities
  • Challenges

7. Global 1-Octene Demand Analysis, By Application (Volume, Value) (2018-2034)

• Strategic Issues and COVID-19 Impact
• Demand Analysis and Forecast (2018- 2034)
  • Demand
  • Demand Growth Rate (%)
  • Driving Force Analysis
  • Global 1-Octene Market, By Application
• Polyethylene (HDPE & LLDPE)
• Plastomers
• Linear Alcohols (PVC, Plasticizers & Surfactants)
• Lubricants
• Others

8. Demand Analysis and Market Review, By Region, By Country (Volume, Value), (2018- 2034)

• Strategic Issues and COVID-19 Impact
• Demand Analysis and Forecast (2018 - 2034)
• Demand
• Demand Growth Rate (%)
• 1-Octene Market, By Application

Note: Demand Analysis has been provided for all major Regions / Countries as mentioned below. The demand (consumption) split by application has been provided for each of the countries / regions in Volume (Kilo tons) and Value (USD Million).

• North America
• USA
• Canada
• Mexico
• Western Europe
• Germany
• France
• Italy
• United Kingdom
• Spain
• Rest of Western Europe
• Central & Eastern Europe
• Russia
• Poland
• Rest of Central & Eastern Europe
• Asia-Pacific
• China
• Japan
• India
• South Korea
• Rest of Asia-Pacific
• Central & South America
• Middle East & Africa

Note: CAGR will be calculated for all the applications to arrive at the regional / global demand growth for the forecast period (2025 - 2034)

9. Pricing Analysis

10. Key Strategic Issues and Business Opportunity Assessment

• Market Attractiveness Assessment
• Prospective & Target Market Study

11. Strategic Recommendation & Suggestions

12. Company Analysis

• 1-Octene Manufacturers Profiles/ Company Analysis
  • Basic Details
  • Headquarter, Key Markets
  • Ownership
  • Company Financial
  • Manufacturing Bases
  • Global Turnover
  • Total Employee
  • Product Portfolio / Services / Solutions
  • Key Business Strategies adopted and Prismane Consulting Overview
  • Recent Developments
  • Companies Covered -
• Shell Chemicals
• Exxon Mobil Corporation
• Evonik Industries
• LG Chemicals
• Sasol Limited
• The Dow Chemical Company
• Silver Fern Chemical Inc.
• CDH Fine Chemicals
• Other Manufacturers

Note: This section includes company information, company financials, manufacturing bases and operating regions. Company financials have been mentioned only for those companies where financials were available in SEC Filings, annual reports, or company websites. All the reported financials in this report are in U.S. Dollars. Financials reported in other currencies have been converted using average currency conversion rates. Company profiles may include manufacturers, suppliers, and distributors.

13. Appendices

• Demand - Regions
• Demand - Countries