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실리콘 및 페로실리콘 : 2029년까지 전망(제17판)

Silicon & Ferrosilicon: Outlook to 2029, 17th Edition

리서치사 Roskill Information Services
발행일 2020년 05월 31일 발행예정 상품 코드 930097
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실리콘 및 페로실리콘 : 2029년까지 전망(제17판) Silicon & Ferrosilicon: Outlook to 2029, 17th Edition
발행일 : 2020년 05월 31일 발행예정 페이지 정보 : 영문

실리콘 메탈 및 페로실리콘 가격은 2018년 초에 가장 최근의 피크에 달했으며, 그 후 거의 2년간 급격한 하락으로 변했습니다. 대부분의 지역의 가격은 2019년 후반에 마침내 바닥을 치고 최근 다시 상승하기 시작했습니다. 실리콘 메탈 및 페로실리콘의 2019년 후반 이후 완만한 가격 회복은 지금까지 소비 성장의 개선이라기 보다는 공급 핍박에 의해 지지되어 왔습니다. 중국이나 다른 국가에서 많은 생산능력이 사용되고 있지 않습니다. 실리콘 메탈 및 페로실리콘 상품의 수요 성장은 2019년 수준을 확실히 밑돌고, 해가 진행됨에 따라 약화되었습니다.

세계의 실리콘 및 페로실리콘(Silicon & Ferrosilicon) 시장에 대해 조사 분석했으며, 세계의 생산·소비 동향, 생산 비용, 국제 거래, 가격, 향후 전망 등에 대해 정리했습니다.

제1장 주요 요약

제2장 실리콘 플로차트

제3장 세계의 생산

제4장 생산 비용

제5장 세계의 소비

제6장 국제 거래

제7장 가격

제8장 전망

제9장 배경

제10장 국가 개요

제11장 최종사용

제12장 기업 개요

KSM 20.04.06

Silicon metal and ferrosilicon are very similar with regard to production process and the geography of world output, but are very different in terms of their applications. Silicon metal is used in the manufacture of aluminium alloys, silicones, semiconductors and, increasingly, in photovoltaic solar applications. In contrast, over 85% of ferrosilicon is consumed in the production of iron and steel.

Prices for both silicon metal and ferrosilicon reached their most recent peak at the beginning of 2018, then went into a sharp decline for almost two years. Prices in most regions finally bottomed out in the latter months of 2019, and have recently started to move up again. The modest price recovery since late-2019 has thus far been fuelled by tight supply rather than improved consumption growth, in the case of both silicon metal and ferrosilicon. Numerous capacity has been idled, both in China and elsewhere. Demand growth for both commodities was decidedly below par in 2019 and weakened as the year progressed.

For how long will idled capacity remain offline, and for how long will consumption growth remain subdued? These are key questions in of themselves, and to a certain extent will also determine the potential for continued price recovery. That said, beyond the short term, prices for both silicon metal and ferrosilicon both tend to be primarily cost-driven.

World production of both silicon metal and ferrosilicon is dominated by China; in 2019, China accounted for 70% of world silicon metal production, and for 66% of global ferrosilicon output. However, Chinese production of these products is following a different trajectory. Chinese ferrosilicon production has been subject to increasingly stringent government controls on overcapacity and emissions, whilst the country's silicon metal capacity and output has been permitted to increase substantially. The extent to which this will remain the case over the coming decade will be of key importance to the market outlook.

Over the past decade, consumption growth for silicon metal has diverged significantly from that for ferrosilicon. The reason for this lies in the different end-use sectors which drive demand for these alloys. Global silicon metal consumption grew 6.5%py between 2010 and 2019, supported by strong growth in all of its main end-use sectors, especially solar, in spite of the slowdown in demand growth in 2019. Consumption in solar applications more than tripled between 2010 and 2019.

In contrast, global ferrosilicon consumption was 7% higher in 2010 than it was in 2019, despite the fact that world crude steel output grew by 30% over the same period. The main reasons for this decline in ferrosilicon consumption have been a trend towards using less ferrosilicon per tonne of crude steel in China, and very slow growth in world output of iron castings.

Experts will answer your questions:

  • Will future growth in silicon metal consumption be met primarily by continued growth in Chinese output, or will significant new production outside China be required?
  • Will silicon metal consumption growth return to normal following a below par year in 2019? What is the outlook for steel production and ferrosilicon consumption over the coming decade?
  • How will the expected shift of the automotive market towards electric vehicles impact the silicon metal and ferrosilicon markets?
  • To what extent will control and regulation of Chinese output drive the silicon metal and ferrosilicon markets?
  • How do anti-dumping duties and export taxes impact the silicon metal and ferrosilicon markets currently, and how are these likely to develop in the coming years?
  • What is the outlook for prices and production costs?

Subscription includes:

  • Detailed report with ten-year forecasts for demand, supply and prices
  • Access to the report online through Roskill Interactive for up to 5 users
  • Quarterly updates to keep you up to speed on our latest view of the industry
  • Access to Roskill's specialists for key market queries
  • Option to download tables and graphs from the report

Table of Contents

  • 1. Executive Summary
  • 2. Silicon Flowchart
  • 3. World Production
  • 4. Production Costs
  • 5. World Consumption
  • 6. International Trade
  • 7. Prices
  • 8. Outlook
  • 9. Background
  • 10. Country Profiles
  • 11. End-uses
  • 12. Company Profiles
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