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세계의 리튬 시장 전망(-2030년) : 제17판

Lithium: Outlook to 2030, 17th Edition

리서치사 Roskill Information Services
발행일 2020년 08월 10일 발행예정 상품 코드 942689
페이지 정보 영문
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세계의 리튬 시장 전망(-2030년) : 제17판 Lithium: Outlook to 2030, 17th Edition
발행일 : 2020년 08월 10일 발행예정 페이지 정보 : 영문

탄산리튬과 수산화리튬의 가격은 2019년에 하락 동향을 보였으며, 탄산리튬의 월간 평균 가격은 1월부터 12월까지 36% 하락했습니다. 2020년 1분기에는 탄산리튬의 월간 평균 가격이 톤당 7,000 달러를 밑돌며, 리튬이온 배터리 업계의 수요 급증과 향후 공급의 불투명성에 의해 2014년 이후 지속되던 상승 기조는 일단락했습니다. 2차 전지 업계에서 리튬 화합물의 수요는 자동차 용도에서 대형 리튬이온 배터리의 이용 확대에 수반하여 2010년대를 통해 급성장했으며, 2019년에는 충전지가 리튬 수요 전체의 54%를 차지하는 상황이 되었습니다. 그러나 2019년 하반기에는 EV의 최대 시장인 중국에서 판매 대수가 감소하고, 2020년 상반기에는 신종 코로나바이러스 감염증(COVID-19)의 팬데믹에 수반하는 록다운으로 세계에서 판매 대수가 감소함에 따라 리튬의 수요 확대도 단기적으로 멈춘 상태입니다. 그러나 장기적인 시나리오에서는 향후 10년간 리튬 수요는 꾸준히 계속 성장할 전망이며, 2030년까지 매년 18%를 넘는 성장률로 계속 확대될 것으로 생각됩니다.

세계의 리튬 시장을 조사했으며, 공급망의 흐름, 세계의 생산과 소비 상황, 생산비용, 국제 거래, 향후 전망, 생산국과 기업의 개요, 소비 동향 등의 정보를 정리하여 전해드립니다.


  • 1.개요
  • 2.공급망 플로 차트
  • 3.세계의 생산 상황
  • 4.생산비용
  • 5.세계의 소비 상황
  • 6.국제 거래
  • 7.가격
  • 8.전망
  • 9.배경
  • 10.지속가능성
  • 11.생산국 개요
  • 12. 기업 개요
  • 13.용도별 소비 상황
KSA 20.07.02

Price support

Lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices continued to display a downward trend throughout the majority of 2019, with monthly average lithium carbonate prices falling 36% between January and December. Trends in Q1 2020 have seen monthly average prices fall further to <US$7,000/t Li2CO3 for the first time since 2014, eroding price increases caused by forecast strong demand growth in the lithium-ion battery industry and uncertainty over future supply. Just as higher prices incentivised the rapid commissioning of production capacity throughout the supply chain, the slide in lithium prices has stressed almost all producers from mined products to refined compounds, causing output curtailments or suspensions.

The rise, and fall, of automotive batteries

Demand for lithium compounds from the rechargeable battery industry has displayed strong growth throughout the 2010s, with the increasing use of larger Li-ion batteries in automotive applications. In 2019, rechargeable batteries accounted for 54% of total lithium demand, almost entirely from Li-ion battery technologies. Though the rapid rise of hybrid and electric vehicle sales has brought attention to the requirement for lithium compounds, falling sales in H2 2019 in China, the largest market for EV's, and a global reduction in sales caused by lockdowns related to the COVID-19 pandemic in H1 2020 have put the short-term 'breaks' on lithium demand growth, impacting demand from both battery and industrial applications. Longer term scenarios continue to show strong growth for lithium demand over the coming decade however, with Roskill forecasting demand to exceed 1.0Mt LCE in 2027, with growth in excess of 18%py to 2030.

Carbonate versus hydroxide

As battery applications extend their dominance of lithium demand, the market is expected to become more focussed on providing products to meet specifications for automotive batteries. The shift towards high-nickel cathode materials, to increase battery energy density, is accelerating demand growth for lithium hydroxide, though its cost premium over lithium carbonate has made some consumers reluctant to switch feedstock. Lithium hydroxide is expected to become the dominant lithium chemistry consumed, though the balance between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide remains highly dependent on lithium-ion cathode requirements.

Supply disruption

A correction in the oversupply of mined lithium products observed in 2018 and 2019 is on-going, with in excess of 30,000t LCE contained in spodumene concentrates estimated to be held in stockpiles at end-2019. Continued weak spodumene concentrate prices have caused lithium mineral operations to target reducing production costs through improved recovery, strip ratios and in-situ grades. While lower lithium prices have impacted sales revenue at lithium brine and mineral conversion facilities, production cost have remained largely stable in 2019. This has been largely down to major brine operations in Chile benefiting from price linked 'sliding-scale' royalty payments, and mineral conversion plants benefiting from lower raw material costs and improved feedstock quality.


Longer term, further additions to lithium production capacity for mined and refined lithium products will be required to keep pace with demand growth, led by battery applications. Though schedule pipeline capacity appears sufficient to meet this demand growth, challenges and set-backs in developing, financing and commissioning lithium mining and refining operations are expected. Even major incumbent lithium producers are at risk of failing to meet production targets and expansion plans, highlighting the technical and financial hurdles involved with bringing sizable volumes of new capacity online. Roskill maintains the view that future refined lithium supply will remain tight, with a period of sustained supply deficit in the mid-2020s.

Roskill experts will answer your questions:

  • How are lithium prices impacting existing lithium producers?
  • Which companies are the major lithium producers?
  • Will the slowdown in EV sales impact long-term lithium demand growth?
  • Where will new sources of mined and refined lithium supply come from?
  • How will prices of key lithium products perform to 2030?
  • What is the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the lithium industry?
  • Which lithium products will be required by key end-use applications?
  • How important will secondary sources of lithium products become?

Subscribe now and receive:

  • Detailed report with ten-year forecasts for demand, supply and prices
  • Access to the report via Roskill Interactive for up to 5 users
  • Quarterly updates to keep you up to speed on our latest view of the industry
  • Access to Roskill specialists for key market queries
  • Option to download tables and graphs from the report
  • A summary PowerPoint of key report findings

Table of Contents

  • 1. Executive Summary
  • 2. Supply Chain Flowchart
  • 3. World Production
  • 4. Production Costs
  • 5. World Consumption
  • 6. International Trade
  • 7. Prices
  • 8. Outlook
  • 9. Background
  • 10. Sustainability
  • 11. Country Profiles
  • 12. Company Profiles
  • 13. Consumption by First Use
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