세계의 탄소배출권 시장 예측(-2032년) : 유형, 메커니즘, 프로젝트 카테고리, 최종사용자, 지역별 분석

According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Carbon Credits Market is accounted for $905.06 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $8367.34 billion by 2032 growing at a CAGR of 37.4% during the forecast period. Carbon credits are marketable certificates that allow the holder to release one ton of carbon dioxide or its greenhouse gas equivalent. They play a crucial role in addressing climate change by motivating businesses and nations to cut emissions. Organizations that surpass their emission targets can buy credits from those that have reduced their carbon footprint, offering economic rewards for sustainable actions. These credits fund initiatives such as renewable energy development, reforestation, and efficiency improvements. By putting a price on emission reductions, carbon credits encourage responsible environmental behavior, ensure regulatory compliance, and support the global shift toward a sustainable, low-carbon economy.

According to the World Bank's Carbon Pricing Dashboard, as of 2025, 73 carbon pricing initiatives are in operation globally, covering 28% of global greenhouse gas emissions. These include both carbon taxes and emissions trading systems, which underpin the compliance and voluntary carbon credit markets.

Market Dynamics:

Driver:

Corporate sustainability initiatives

The expansion of the carbon credits market is significantly driven by corporate sustainability efforts. Organizations globally are implementing eco-friendly strategies to minimize their carbon emissions and fulfill stakeholder demands for environmental accountability. Purchasing carbon credits enables companies to balance emissions from operations, logistics, or products, aligning with corporate social responsibility objectives while enhancing public image. Sustainable investment in carbon credits supports initiatives such as renewable energy, forest restoration, and clean technology deployment, contributing to tangible environmental benefits. As corporations increasingly embed sustainability into core strategies, their reliance on carbon credits grows, boosting market demand and encouraging further development of eco-conscious solutions, innovation, and emission reduction practices across industries.

Restraint:

High implementation costs

The carbon credits market is restrained by significant implementation expenses. Initiating emission reduction initiatives, such as renewable energy projects or afforestation programs, requires large upfront investments. For small and medium enterprises, these financial demands can be prohibitive, preventing their active participation. Moreover, the costs of monitoring, reporting, and verifying emission reductions add additional financial pressure, requiring specialized expertise and resources. High entry costs may deter organizations from engaging in carbon offset programs, restricting overall market involvement. As a result, the market struggles to achieve wide-scale adoption and inclusive participation, which can slow growth, limit market penetration, and reduce the speed at which carbon credit initiatives can expand globally.

Opportunity:

Expansion of renewable energy projects

The development of renewable energy initiatives presents substantial prospects for the carbon credits market. With growing global emphasis on clean energy, businesses are increasingly investing in solar, wind, hydro, and other sustainable power sources. These projects produce carbon credits by cutting greenhouse gas emissions compared to conventional fossil fuel energy. Organizations and governments can buy these credits to offset their environmental impact, creating economic incentives alongside sustainability. Expansion of renewable energy infrastructure, especially in emerging regions, opens new opportunities for generating carbon credits. Linking emission reduction efforts to clean energy projects enables the carbon credits market to drive both ecological benefits and financial growth globally.

Threat:

Market volatility and price fluctuations

Price volatility and market fluctuations represent a major challenge for the carbon credits market. Carbon credit values can shift due to regulatory changes, demand variations, and geopolitical influences, creating uncertainty for investors and companies. Sudden price declines may reduce incentives to invest in emission reduction initiatives, while sharp increases can make compliance financially difficult. Such unpredictability affects market stability and hinders long-term strategic planning, limiting participation. Smaller enterprises are often more vulnerable to price swings, restricting their engagement in carbon credit schemes. Consequently, fluctuating market conditions pose a threat to the credibility, efficiency, and sustainable expansion of the carbon credits industry on a global scale.

Covid-19 Impact:

The COVID-19 outbreak significantly affected the carbon credits market. Lockdowns and slowed economic activity worldwide caused decreased industrial production, lower energy usage, and a temporary drop in greenhouse gas emissions. This short-term decline reduced immediate demand for carbon credits, yet emphasized the need for sustainable practices and effective emission management. Financial uncertainties and supply chain disruptions led many organizations to postpone carbon offset project investments. At the same time, policymakers and businesses increasingly saw carbon markets as essential tools for economic recovery and achieving long-term climate objectives. The pandemic highlighted both challenges and growth opportunities, demonstrating the resilience and importance of carbon credits in a post-COVID sustainable future.

The compliance credits segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period

The compliance credits segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period. These credits operate under mandatory regulatory systems, allowing organizations to fulfill legally required emission reduction obligations. Companies exceeding established emission limits utilize compliance credits to neutralize excess greenhouse gases and remain aligned with environmental regulations. The formalized compliance frameworks, supported by rigorous verification and monitoring protocols, create consistent demand for these credits. Moreover, regulatory backing and the risk of penalties for failing to comply reinforce their importance. Due to their essential role in ensuring legal adherence and structured governance, compliance credits represent the largest and most influential segment within the global carbon credits market.

The aviation segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period

Over the forecast period, the aviation segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate. Heightened recognition of the industry's significant greenhouse gas emissions has led airlines and associated companies to implement carbon offset measures. Regulatory requirements, passenger demand for environmentally responsible travel, and corporate net-zero pledges are accelerating the adoption of carbon credits to counteract emissions from flights. The increasing volume of domestic and international air travel further underscores the sector's carbon footprint, creating additional demand for offsets. By incorporating carbon credit strategies into operations, the aviation segment is rapidly expanding and emerging as a key driver of growth, highlighting its critical influence on the overall carbon credits market trajectory.

Region with largest share:

During the forecast period, the North America region is expected to hold the largest market share. The area benefits from mature regulatory policies, substantial government support for emission reduction programs, and active industry participation, all of which drive carbon credit demand. Businesses in sectors like energy, manufacturing, and transportation are increasingly using carbon credits to achieve regulatory compliance and sustainability objectives. Advanced trading platforms and heightened environmental awareness further enhance market expansion. Moreover, strict emission standards and incentives for renewable energy development boost credit creation and transactions. Consequently, North America maintains a dominant position in the global carbon credits market, reflecting its significant influence and substantial share in overall market activity.

Region with highest CAGR:

Over the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR. The region's rapid industrial expansion, rising energy consumption, and growing focus on environmental sustainability are encouraging businesses to invest in carbon offset solutions. Countries such as China, India, and Japan are strengthening emission regulations and supporting renewable energy initiatives, generating significant carbon credit activity. The growth of local carbon trading platforms, coupled with increased corporate commitment to sustainability, further drives market expansion. Emerging economies are actively engaging in both compliance and voluntary carbon credit programs. Consequently, Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing region globally, reflecting substantial potential and dynamic growth within the carbon credits market.

Key players in the market

Some of the key players in Carbon Credits Market include Regreener, South Pole, ClimatePartner, Anthesis, Rabo Carbon Bank, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Xpansiv, Climate Impact X (CIX), AirCarbon Exchange (ACX), Indigo Ag, Ecolution Technologies, ClimeSecure, CarbonCheck India, Carbon Streaming Corporation and DevvStream.

Key Developments:

In September 2025, Xpansiv is teaming up with the Korea Exchange (KRX). They will launch a Korean Carbon Credit Market together. The initiative will offer a trading platform for several types of credits. This includes voluntary carbon credits, Article 6 credits from the Paris Agreement, and credits linked to compliance systems like CORSIA. This partnership is a big step for South Korea. It has run its own national Emissions Trading System (K-ETS) since 2015.

In June 2025, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. announced the launch of its first futures contracts based on battery materials, expanding its energy and environmental markets - which represent the most liquid markets to trade these products - into critical minerals. ICE has launched four cash-settled battery materials contracts covering lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate, cobalt and spodumene futures based on Fastmarkets' price assessments.

In September 2024, Anthesis Group announced it has signed The Climate Pledge. Becoming a signatory highlights Anthesis' ongoing commitment to environmental responsibility and social accountability and reinforces the belief that a purpose-driven strategy combined with robust sustainability capability builds distinctive, impactful, and high-performing businesses.

Types Covered:

• Compliance Credits
• Voluntary Credits

Mechanisms Covered:

• Cap-and-Trade
• Baseline-and-Credit
• Carbon Tax-Linked Credits

Project Categories Covered:

• Renewable Energy Projects
• Forestry & Land Use
• Agricultural Practices
• Industrial Emission Reduction
• Waste Management Projects
• Methane Abatement Technologies
• Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
• Blue Carbon Projects

End Users Covered:

• Power Generation
• Oil & Gas
• Aviation
• Logistics & Transportation
• Government & Municipal Buyers
• Manufacturing
• Construction
• Commercial Buildings

Regions Covered:

• North America
  • US
  • Canada
  • Mexico
• Europe
  • Germany
  • UK
  • Italy
  • France
  • Spain
  • Rest of Europe
• Asia Pacific
  • Japan
  • China
  • India
  • Australia
  • New Zealand
  • South Korea
  • Rest of Asia Pacific
• South America
  • Argentina
  • Brazil
  • Chile
  • Rest of South America
• Middle East & Africa
  • Saudi Arabia
  • UAE
  • Qatar
  • South Africa
  • Rest of Middle East & Africa

What our report offers:

• Market share assessments for the regional and country-level segments
• Strategic recommendations for the new entrants
• Covers Market data for the years 2024, 2025, 2026, 2028, and 2032
• Market Trends (Drivers, Constraints, Opportunities, Threats, Challenges, Investment Opportunities, and recommendations)
• Strategic recommendations in key business segments based on the market estimations
• Competitive landscaping mapping the key common trends
• Company profiling with detailed strategies, financials, and recent developments
• Supply chain trends mapping the latest technological advancements

Free Customization Offerings:

All the customers of this report will be entitled to receive one of the following free customization options:

• Company Profiling
  • Comprehensive profiling of additional market players (up to 3)
  • SWOT Analysis of key players (up to 3)
• Regional Segmentation
  • Market estimations, Forecasts and CAGR of any prominent country as per the client's interest (Note: Depends on feasibility check)
• Competitive Benchmarking
  • Benchmarking of key players based on product portfolio, geographical presence, and strategic alliances

Table of Contents

1 Executive Summary

2 Preface

• 2.1 Abstract
• 2.2 Stake Holders
• 2.3 Research Scope
• 2.4 Research Methodology
  • 2.4.1 Data Mining
  • 2.4.2 Data Analysis
  • 2.4.3 Data Validation
  • 2.4.4 Research Approach
• 2.5 Research Sources
  • 2.5.1 Primary Research Sources
  • 2.5.2 Secondary Research Sources
  • 2.5.3 Assumptions

3 Market Trend Analysis

• 3.1 Introduction
• 3.2 Drivers
• 3.3 Restraints
• 3.4 Opportunities
• 3.5 Threats
• 3.6 End User Analysis
• 3.7 Emerging Markets
• 3.8 Impact of Covid-19

4 Porters Five Force Analysis

• 4.1 Bargaining power of suppliers
• 4.2 Bargaining power of buyers
• 4.3 Threat of substitutes
• 4.4 Threat of new entrants
• 4.5 Competitive rivalry

5 Global Carbon Credits Market, By Type

• 5.1 Introduction
• 5.2 Compliance Credits
• 5.3 Voluntary Credits

6 Global Carbon Credits Market, By Mechanism

• 6.1 Introduction
• 6.2 Cap-and-Trade
• 6.3 Baseline-and-Credit
• 6.4 Carbon Tax-Linked Credits

7 Global Carbon Credits Market, By Project Category

• 7.1 Introduction
• 7.2 Renewable Energy Projects
• 7.3 Forestry & Land Use
• 7.4 Agricultural Practices
• 7.5 Industrial Emission Reduction
• 7.6 Waste Management Projects
• 7.7 Methane Abatement Technologies
• 7.8 Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
• 7.9 Blue Carbon Projects

8 Global Carbon Credits Market, By End User

• 8.1 Introduction
• 8.2 Power Generation
• 8.3 Oil & Gas
• 8.4 Aviation
• 8.5 Logistics & Transportation
• 8.6 Government & Municipal Buyers
• 8.7 Manufacturing
• 8.8 Construction
• 8.9 Commercial Buildings

9 Global Carbon Credits Market, By Geography

• 9.1 Introduction
• 9.2 North America
  • 9.2.1 US
  • 9.2.2 Canada
  • 9.2.3 Mexico
• 9.3 Europe
  • 9.3.1 Germany
  • 9.3.2 UK
  • 9.3.3 Italy
  • 9.3.4 France
  • 9.3.5 Spain
  • 9.3.6 Rest of Europe
• 9.4 Asia Pacific
  • 9.4.1 Japan
  • 9.4.2 China
  • 9.4.3 India
  • 9.4.4 Australia
  • 9.4.5 New Zealand
  • 9.4.6 South Korea
  • 9.4.7 Rest of Asia Pacific
• 9.5 South America
  • 9.5.1 Argentina
  • 9.5.2 Brazil
  • 9.5.3 Chile
  • 9.5.4 Rest of South America
• 9.6 Middle East & Africa
  • 9.6.1 Saudi Arabia
  • 9.6.2 UAE
  • 9.6.3 Qatar
  • 9.6.4 South Africa
  • 9.6.5 Rest of Middle East & Africa

10 Key Developments

• 10.1 Agreements, Partnerships, Collaborations and Joint Ventures
• 10.2 Acquisitions & Mergers
• 10.3 New Product Launch
• 10.4 Expansions
• 10.5 Other Key Strategies

11 Company Profiling

• 11.1 Regreener
• 11.2 South Pole
• 11.3 ClimatePartner
• 11.4 Anthesis
• 11.5 Rabo Carbon Bank
• 11.6 Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)
• 11.7 Xpansiv
• 11.8 Climate Impact X (CIX)
• 11.9 AirCarbon Exchange (ACX)
• 11.10 Indigo Ag
• 11.11 Ecolution Technologies
• 11.12 ClimeSecure
• 11.13 CarbonCheck India
• 11.14 Carbon Streaming Corporation
• 11.15 DevvStream