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US to Cancel China Exemptions; Case Review Likely to be Approved

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Overview

US may cancel China facility technology exemptions; however, with mature processes in place, case-by-case reviews are expected to keep the supply chain stable with limited market impact.

Key Highlights:

  • The US is assessing the cancellation of technology exemptions for its facilities in China, opting for a case-by-case review.
  • Chinese sites mostly use mature manufacturing processes, focusing on non-cutting-edge products that lower immediate supply risks.
  • While the withdrawal of exemptions might affect capacity upgrades and current operations, overall supply chain stability is expected to remain manageable.
  • Certain key facilities, due to their product positioning and market demands, are likely to still secure approval.

Table of Contents

1. Memory: Chinese Fabs Account for Pivotal Scale of Capacity

  • Non-China Memory Suppliers' Capacities Established in China

2. Foundry: Focus of New Restrictions Is on Consumer Chip Products Based on Mature Nodes

  • Non-China Foundries' Capacities Established in China

3. TrendForce's View: Approval Will Be Likely for Individual Review Cases, but Policy Uncertainty Will Persist

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