세계의 Open vRAN 시장(2024년 9월)

This report takes a deep dive into the virtualization and disaggregation of radio access networks and analyzes the various schools of thoughts ranging from basic virtualization of RAN functions (vRAN) to new open architectures such as open RAN, following the TIP initiative and the O-RAN Alliance specifications, designed to cut the dependency on proprietary RAN equipment supplied by the traditional vendors. The vRAN segment is taken from our existing RAN size and forecasts and broken down by 2G/3G/4G versus 5G, as well as by vCU/vDU and RU for each region, and also looks at the potential for indoor DAS replacement. The report covers a wide emerging ecosystem of vendors. Lastly, as more than 95% of open RAN deployments are vRAN, we call this market open vRAN.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

KEY TAKEAWAYS: 1H24 DOWN YOY BUT THE FUTURE IS LOOKING UP!

THE OPEN RAN/VRAN MARKET WANED IN 1H24

• 1H24 WAS MARKED BY A WEAK COMMERCIAL DEPLOYMENT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BOARD
  • Overall, 1H24 was a mixed bag of deployment pockets
  • Little has changed in the vendor leadership board, just musical chairs in the top 4
  • NEC and Samsung are the top RU suppliers while Fujitsu and Rakuten Symphony lead CU/DU
• TRIALS, TESTING AND CERTIFICATION EFFORTS KEPT SWELLING, AND RFP/RFI SURGED
  • Initially in the driver's seat, Orange, Telefonica and TIM have adopted a wait and see attitude

THE MARKET LULL EXTENDS FOR ANOTHER YEAR AND 2025 WILL BE THE TRIGGER YEAR, READY FOR TAKEOFF?

• IN 2H24, WE EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT BUMP FROM THE AT&T ROLLOUT, WHICH HAS NOT CHANGED OUR FORECAST UPDATED 1Q24
• 2025 WILL BE THE GLOBAL SWITCH YEAR
  • The open vRAN penetration of the global traditional RAN sales is expected to hit 29% in 2029, up from 4.6% in 2024
  • So far, Asia Pacific is the world's largest open vRAN market but the U.S. is awakening in a big way
  • Among the countries ploughing money into open RAN, the U.S. is pushing for gLobal dominance
  • Consequently, North America is poised to hit the 20% RAN sales penetration bar in 2025 and reach 58% 2029
  • Openness, scalability and innovation remain the 3 chief drivers
  • We believe nearly all commercial open RAN networks will be running RAN functions on software
  • vRAN and open RAN are 2 different configurations
  • DISH and Rakuten Mobile bring cloud RAN to prime time
  • Finally, it's worth noting that open RAN started as a NON-VIRTUAL architecture

WHILE THE OPEN VRAN RENAISSANCE BEGINS, THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE ECOSYSTEM IS UNDER PRESSURE

• AS SOME OLD CHALLENGES REMAIN, THE NAYSAYERS STICK TO THEIR GUNS
• IN THE MEANTIME, A VAST OPEN RAN ECOSYSTEM KEEPS DEVELOPING, CONSOLIDATING, RESTRUCTURING, AND RECAPITALIZING
  • The early greenfield open RAN adopters embraced the multi-vendor approach...
  • ...which is now under attack by the brownfield adopters and actors of this renaissance
  • In this post 5G peak era, Tier 1 CSPs are locked in with abundant 5G footprints from Ericsson and Nokia
  • At this stage, large Tier 1 CSPs seem inclined to do what AT&T is doing and lean heavily on a single big supplier for their open vRAN deployments
  • Consequently, consolidation and restructuring are chugging along
  • OREX: the creation of a Rakuten Symphony clone
• ALL OF THE ABOVE IS THE DIRECT CONSEQUENCE OF THE HUAWEI BAN
  • For most of the world, the mission to ban the Chinese vendors is accomplished...
  • ...And international cooperation is at its best
  • This also drove the creation of a flurry of regional and national initiatives

OPEN VRAN IS A STRONG CANDIDATE FOR NEUTRAL HOST, INDOOR USE CASES IN GENERAL, AND AS A DAS REPLACEMENT IN PARTICULAR

• NEUTRAL HOST COMPANIES ACROSS THE WORLD ARE LOOKING AT OPEN RAN AND OPEN VRAN AS A NEW ARCHITECTURE IN THEIR TOOL KIT
• CURRENT C-RAN-BASED DAS ARCHITECTURES OFFER PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR OPEN VRAN UPGRADES
  • In 2026, the indoor open vRAN/open DAS market will surpass indoor DAS
  • Private wireless networks remain an open vRAN niche for now but 90% of large enterprise installations are traditional RAN
  • However, as DAS replacement shifts to smaller venues, open vRAN will eventually penetrate the SME space at some point
  • Indoor 5G coverage is the vRAN driving force