세계 스쿨버스 시장의 전략적 기회

A Recovering Demand and Ongoing Electrification Efforts Bolster Growth

This Frost & Sullivan report on the global school bus industry provides an in-depth analysis of the growth environment, global trends, and an extensive examination of the school bus space segmented by region.

The global school bus industry is expected to grow at a 4.1% rate as market demand experiences a rebound after the pandemic, with replacement for aging fleets contributing to growth. In 2022, the total school bus shipments rose to 59,346 units, and the largest share went to North America (combining the United States and Canada), with 40,556 school buses sold in 2022, followed by India with 13,659 buses and China with 5,131 buses.

In the United States, the introduction of the 'Clean School Bus' (CSB) program as part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law by the Biden administration aims to replace current fossil fuel buses with low- and zero-emission buses. The benefits of this federal program are paramount to both the environment and the health of school children, as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will introduce the Green House Gases (GHG) phase 3 program with stricter emission norms. These factors will determine the growth of electric school buses in North America, with significant market penetration by 2030. In China, electrification will largely depend on the government, as safety is the main factor it considers in school transportation. Similarly, electric school buses will gain ground in India if the government incentives are structured specifically for this segment.

As an alternative to electric, the natural gas powertrain will gain momentum, although natural gas prices have been affected by the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022. North America already provides incentives for propane, also known as liquefied natural gas (LNG), and it is included in the CSB program under the low-emission category. In India, compressed natural gas (CNG) school bus offerings see boosting from OEMs as CNG is cost-effective compared to diesel.

Regarding segment classification, in 2022, medium-duty buses led the market with 67.4% out of the total school bus industry, light-duty buses reached 26.2%, while heavy-duty constituted 6.5% of the market. Medium-duty school buses will continue to dominate the market as they offer higher seating capacity with optimal efficiency in operations. The light-duty segment is preferred in urban areas due to its easy maneuverability with moderate operating distance.

With electrification in the anvil, the focus on advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) is expected to gain prominence as safety norms for school buses in North America are more advanced compared to other markets; and while the telematics market for school buses is poised to grow, there is an expectation for safer school transportation and reducing operation costs through fleet management solutions. The revision of existing school bus safety standards in markets like India and China will likely ensure the introduction of new technology safety systems, which further contribute to the preference for regulated school bus usage over other forms of transport.

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Global School Bus Market
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Study Scope

• Scope of Analysis
• Product and Technology Segmentation

Growth Environment

• Primary Highlights of the Global School Bus Industry in 2022
• Global Trends will Influence the Future of the School Bus Market (2023 to 2030)
• Snapshot of the Global School Bus Market by Region in 2030

Growth Opportunity Analysis

• Primary Findings: Global School Bus Market
• Global School Bus Unit Sales by Region
• Key Global Growth Metrics
• Main Forecast Criteria
• Growth Drivers
• Growth Restraints
• Unit Sales Forecast
• Forecast Discussion

School Bus Market: North America

• Regional Snapshot: North America
• Key Growth Metrics: North America
• Unit Sales Forecast: North America
• Powertrain Forecast: North America
• HD Powertrain Forecast: North America
• MD Powertrain Forecast: North America
• LD Powertrain Forecast: North America
• Forecast Discussion: North America
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: North America
• OEM Profile: Blue Bird Corporation
• OEM Profile: Thomas Built Buses

Telematics and Driver Assistance Systems Overview: North America

• Telematics Systems Favorability: North America
• Driver Assistance System (DAS) Favorability: North America

Total Cost of Ownership: North America

• Total Cost of Ownership: Parameters and Assumptions
• Total Cost of Ownership: North American Diesel, NG, and ESB Operational Cost per Mile Comparison

ESB Overview: North America

• Electric School Bus: Vehicle 2 Grid (V2G) Overview-North America
• Electric School Bus (ESB) Specifications: North America
• ESB Incentives: North America

School Bus Market: China

• Regional Snapshot: China
• Key Growth Metrics: China
• Unit Sales Forecast: China
• Powertrain Forecast: China
• HD Powertrain Forecast: China
• MD Powertrain Forecast: China
• LD Powertrain Forecast: China
• Forecast Discussion: China
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: China
• OEM Profile: Yutong Bus
• OEM Profile: Zhongtong Bus

Telematics and Driver Assistance Systems Overview: China

• Telematics Systems Favorability: China
• Driver Assistance System (DAS) Favorability: China

School Bus Market: India

• Regional Snapshot: India
• Key Growth Metrics: India
• Unit Sales Forecast: India
• Powertrain Forecast: India
• HD Powertrain Forecast: India
• MD Powertrain Forecast: India
• LD Powertrain Forecast: India
• Forecast Discussion: India
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: India
• OEM Profile: Tata Motors
• OEM Profile: Ashok Leyland

Telematics and Driver Assistance Systems Overview: India

• Telematics Systems Favorability: India
• Driver Assistance System (DAS) Favorability: India

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Action Toward Zero-emission School Transportation in Developing Markets
• Growth Opportunity 2: Expanding Charging Ecosystem for ESBs and Focus on V2G Systems
• Growth Opportunity 3: Advanced Safety and Telematics Solutions for Safer and Profitable School Transportation

Next Steps

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