세계의 중대형 상용차 애프터마켓 전망(2024년)

Moderate Global GDP Growth will Affect Truck Usage Leading to a 4.3% Part Revenue Growth Opportunity

This Frost & Sullivan's analysis of the 2024 global medium and heavy-duty (MD and HD) commercial vehicle aftermarket examines and forecasts for the 2023-2027 period, highlighting several types of parts in the aftermarket and its growth opportunities.

This outlook features global coverage with a specific focus and analytics for North America, Latin America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East and Africa. Frost & Sullivan determines key trends and growth opportunities impacting the 2024 global MD and HD truck aftermarket.

Frost & Sullivan calculates market forecasts based on several factors, including average miles driven, vehicles in operation (VIO), new truck sales, average vehicle age, replacement rates, and the operating environment of each specific region. Each geographic segment features an analysis of aftermarket parts size, VIO, new truck sales, revenues, and distribution channel breakdown.

The regional analysis examines the operating environment, with parameters such as the average vehicle age and truck brand market share. The main challenges that stakeholders face, inflation and supply chain disruptions, are past their peak and will likely improve into H2 of 2024. However, H1 global GDP will grow modestly by 1.9% while H2 should improve, with 2.8% growth as economic conditions improve. Developed economies in North America and Europe will lag in 2024 with an expected 1% growth. In turn, developing economies in Latin America and APAC will grow by 3.8%, helping drive the global economy and aftermarket spend in 2024.

Table of Contents

Growth Opportunities: Analysis Highlights

• The Global Medium and Heavy-duty Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket in 2023: Actuals and Forecast
• Top Predictions for 2024

Transformation in the Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket

• Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Global MD and HD Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket

Growth Opportunities: Research Methodology

• Scope of Analysis
• Segmentation
• Geographic Scope
• Research Aims and Objectives
• Key Questions This Study Will Answer
• Data Sources
• Research Process

Growth Generator: Macroeconomic Factors Impacting the Global Medium- and Heavy-duty Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket

• Top 10 Trends for 2024
• Top 10 Growth Opportunities
• Global GDP Growth
• Inflation and Interest Rates
• Currency Trajectory
• Oil Markets
• Labor Market
• Critical Minerals Supplies
• North America
• Western Europe
• Middle East
• Asia

Growth Environment

• Replacement Revenue Forecast for Parts and Accessories
• 2023 in Numbers
• 2023 in Trends
• 2024 in Numbers
• 2024 in Trends

Growth Generator: Global Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket Outlook, 2023

• Global Commercial VIO
• Global Aftermarket Revenue Market Size Potential
• Average Vehicle Age: Key Countries
• Average Vehicle Miles Traveled
• Top 10 Trends Driving the Global Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket
• Relevance of Top 10 Trends by Region
• Trend 1: M&A and Partnership Growth
• Trend 2: Addressing Labor Shortages through Technician Programs
• Trend 3: Enhanced Customer Journey
• Trend 4: Unified Platforms for Aftermarket Ecosystem Integration to Optimize Vehicle Service and Repair
• Trend 5: Expansion in Remanufactured Product Lines and Offerings
• OEM Activity in 2023
• Supplier Activity in 2023

Growth Generator: North America Regional Outlook, 2024

• Regional Outlook
• Aftermarket Dashboard
• Aftermarket Outlook: Revenue by Part Type
• VIO Ownership Pattern
• VIO Model Mix
• Distribution Channel and Gross Margin Analysis
• MD and HD Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket Opportunity Areas

Growth Generator: Western Europe Regional Outlook, 2024

• Regional Outlook
• Aftermarket Dashboard
• Aftermarket Outlook: Revenue by Part Type
• VIO Ownership Pattern
• VIO Model Mix
• Distribution Channel and Gross Margin Analysis
• MD and HD Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket Opportunity Areas

Growth Generator: Latin America Regional Outlook, 2024

• Regional Outlook
• Aftermarket Dashboard
• Aftermarket Outlook: Revenue by Part Type
• VIO Ownership Pattern
• VIO Model Mix
• Distribution Channel and Gross Margin Analysis
• MD and HD Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket Opportunity Areas

Growth Generator: APAC Regional Outlook, 2024

• Regional Outlook
• Aftermarket Dashboard
• Aftermarket Outlook: Revenue by Part Type
• VIO Ownership Pattern
• VIO Model Mix
• Distribution Channel and Gross Margin Analysis
• MD and HD Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket Opportunity Areas

Growth Generator: MEA Regional Outlook, 2024

• Regional Outlook
• Aftermarket Dashboard
• Aftermarket Outlook: Revenue by Part Type
• VIO Ownership Pattern
• VIO Model Mix
• Distribution Channel and Gross Margin Analysis
• MD and HD Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket Opportunity Areas

Key Conclusions and Future Outlook

• Key Conclusions and Future Outlook

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Service Ecosystems
• Growth Opportunity 2: Circular Economy Expansion
• Growth Opportunity 3: Nearshoring and Domestic Parts

Best Practices Recognition

• Best Practices Recognition

Frost Radar

• Frost Radar

Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Next Steps
• Take the Next Step
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer