세계의 전기자동차(EV) 성장 전망 예측(2024년)

The Electric Vehicle Industry Will Suffer Growth Deceleration as OEMs Fight a Price War

This Frost & Sullivan analysis provides an outlook for the electric vehicle (EV) industry based on the latest industry data, an outline of current trends, an in-depth examination of future developments, and a breakdown of the main stakeholders in the sector and their performance.

EV sales in 2023 amounted to a total of 14.1 million, of which 70.2% were battery EVs and 29.8% were plug-in hybrid EVs. Fuel-cell EV sales remained the same as in 2022, constituting less than 0.1% of the total EV sales. Global EV penetration increased from 13% in 2022 to 16% in 2022. Asia-Pacific (APAC) has the highest penetration globally, with 23% in the light-duty vehicle segment.

Crucial upcoming EV trends include the introduction of sodium-ion and solid-state batteries in mass-market EVs, gigacasting, falling EV prices, usage of AI, development of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) compatible vehicles, and opportunities in battery repair and replacement. Key OEMs have officially announced the adoption of alternate and advanced battery chemistries, such as sodium ion and solid-state batteries. EV manufacturers are exploring the gigacasting space, considering their affordable EV strategy; however, adoption is not widespread yet.

Due to the discontinuation of incentives, OEMs are forced to lower EV prices to keep up with demand and compete with conventional vehicles. Most markets have either reduced or discontinued cash incentives on EVs. Battery management systems (BMS) and analytics, EV battery second life, and testing and validation will leverage AI and digitization. The development of V2G-compatible vehicles spearheads technological progress and is a priority because next-generation charging infrastructure will demand V2G-compatible vehicles.

EV sales will reach an estimated 18.5 million units globally with a 31.1% year-over-year growth. The pace of this growth will decelerate due to the revision of incentives, mainly in Europe. Charging point installations will surpass 5.2 million by the end of the year, with an estimated ratio of one charging connector for 12 EVs. The global EV penetration will reach 20% penetration in the light-duty vehicle segment, a milestone for the industry. BYD will retain the leadership with a higher margin than in 2023 as it expands its presence in Europe and emerging Asian markets (Japan, India, and Thailand). The battery market will supply approximately 945,000 megawatts/hour of battery capacity and, in this market, CATL will remain the leader, followed by BYD.

Table of Contents

Analysis Highlights

• Electric Vehicle Highlights: 2023 and Top Predictions for 2024
• Global EV Market Overview, 2023 and 2024e
• EV Growth and Penetration: Top 10 Markets
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key OEMs
• EV Battery Overview
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key OEMs
• EV Charging Infrastructure Development: Top 5 Markets

Strategic Imperatives

• Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the EV Industry
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline EngineTM

Research Scope and Segmentation

• Research Scope
• EV Segmentation

2024 Global Economic Outlook

• Top 10 Trends for 2024
• Top 10 Growth Opportunities
• Global GDP Growth: Mild Global Growth Slowdown from 3.0% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 as Key Economies Lose Growth Momentum
• Inflation and Interest Rates: Headline Inflation will Continue to Decline; H2 2024 will Shift Towards Rate Cuts for Advanced ECONOMIES
• Currency Trajectory: Dollar to Remain Strong in H1 2024; Emerging Market Currencies to Get Boost from Q3 2024 Onwards
• OIL Markets: Q1 OPEC+ Oil Production Cuts; NON-OPEC Production to Rise
• Labor Market: Moderate Unemployment Uptick; Positive Expectations over Market Sentiment to Support Labor Hoarding
• Critical Minerals Supplies: Need for ECONOMIC Resiliency Will Bolster Cross-border and Cross-industry Partnerships
• North America: Economic Slowdown AMIDST Discretionary Spending Pullback and Elevated Interest Rates
• Western Europe: Moderate Growth Pick-up as Inflation Headwinds Ease Gradually; Rebuilding Fiscal Buffers to Take Precedence
• Middle East: Non-oil Growth Driven by Economic Diversification to Limit the Pullback Caused by a Slowdown in Global Oil Markets
• Asia: Emerging Economies to Drive Growth Momentum; Fiscal Measures to Support Chinese Economic Recovery

Upcoming Trends

• Key Trends in the EV Market for 2024
• Na-ion and Solid-state Batteries Enter the EV Mass Market
• Gigacasting in EV Manufacturing
• Falling EV Prices
• AI in EV Charging
• V2G-compatible Vehicles
• Battery Repair and Replacement

EV Market Overview and Prediction to 2024e: Europe

• EV Highlights: 2023 and 2024e
• European EV Market, 2023 and 2024e
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key Countries
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key OEMs
• The European Powertrain Mix in the Next Decade

EV Market Overview and Prediction to 2024e: Americas

• EV Highlights: 2023 and 2024e
• Americas EV Market, 2023 And 2024e
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key Countries
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key OEMs
• The US Powertrain Mix in the Next Decade

EV Market Overview and Prediction to 2024e: China

• EV Highlights: 2023 and 2024e
• Chinese EV Market: 2023 and 2024e
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key OEMs
• The Chinese Powertrain Mix in the Next Decade

EV Market Overview and Prediction to 2024e: APAC (excluding China)

• EV Highlights: 2023 and 2024e
• APAC EV Market, 2023 and 2024e
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key Countries
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key OEMs
• The APAC Powertrain Mix in the Next Decade

EV Market Overview and Prediction to 2024e: MEA

• EV Highlights: 2023 and 2024e
• MEA EV Market, 2023 and 2024e
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key Countries
• EV Growth and Penetration: Key OEMs

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: EV Pricing Will Match Pre-incentive Prices and Compete with Conventional Vehicles
• Growth Opportunity 2: Expansion into EV Emerging Markets
• Growth Opportunity 3: EV Battery Repair and Replacement for First-generation EVs

Conclusions

• Conclusions and Future Outlook

Next Steps

• Your Next Steps
• Why Frost, Why Now?
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer