노킹 방지제 : 시장 점유율 분석, 업계 동향 및 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the antiknock agents market size is expected to increase from USD 3.44 billion in 2025 to USD 3.63 billion in 2026 and reach USD 4.75 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 5.51% over 2026-2031.

This report is Segmented by Product Type (Ethanol, Tetraethyllead(tel), and More), Form (Liquid, Solid, and Additive Packages/Concentrates), Distribution Channel (OEM Supply, Bulk Terminal Injection, and More), Application (Automotive, Aviation, and More), and Geography (Asia-Pacific, North America, Europe, South America, Middle East and Africa). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Global Antiknock Agents Market Trends and Insights

Turbocharged Downsizing Requiring Higher Octane Fuels

With compression ratios of 11:1 or higher, 1.2 to 2.0 liter turbocharged engines operate near the limits of 91 Research Octane Number (RON) fuel. In 2025, 14 Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) adopted the TOP TIER standard, mandating five times the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) detergent baseline to address injector deposits and low-speed pre-ignition. Research from Argonne National Laboratory indicates that increasing ethanol content from E10 to E15 reduces particulate number emissions by 18%. However, RON improvements plateau beyond E20 due to charge-cooling effects on flame speed. Consequently, premium fuel blenders are incorporating 10-12 volume percent (vol%) Ethyl Tertiary Butyl Ether (ETBE) into E10, achieving 95+ RON while adhering to the 7 pounds per square inch (psi) Reid vapor-pressure limit.

Rapid Motorization in Southeast Asia With Lax Aromatic Limits

Indonesia's Euro 4-equivalent regulations permit 45% aromatics and 1.5% benzene. This regulatory framework enables Pertamina to efficiently supply reformate-rich 92 RON gasoline. In 2025, gasoline consumption in Vietnam increased by 8.2%. However, with its refineries lacking Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) upgrades, importers rely on aromatic naphtha from Korea and Singapore. While E20 has been introduced in Thailand, it accounts for only 12% of retail sales due to concerns about reduced mileage. Conversely, luxury hybrids require 95 RON or higher, creating a premium market for Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether (MTBE) and ethanol.

Ethanol Price Volatility and US Blend-Wall Constraints

In January 2025, corn-ethanol prices increased from USD 1.85 per gallon to USD 2.62 by August, driven by a 14% yield reduction due to Midwestern droughts. Although the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approved year-round E15 at 3,800 stations, the E10 blend wall continues to limit additional demand. Rotterdam import prices rose to EUR 720 (USD 0.47) per m3 as Brazil redirected ethanol to domestic hydrous use.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Bio-MTBE and Bio-ETBE Adoption to Meet EU Renewable Targets
2. E-Fuel Pilot Projects Creating Drop-In Octane Demand
3. Electric Vehicle Penetration Eroding Gasoline Demand

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Ethanol accounted for 39.11% of the antiknock agents market share in 2025, driven by Brazil's E27-E30 policy and the United States Renewable Fuel Standard, which supported demand. However, bio-based oxygenates are projected to experience the fastest growth in the antiknock agents market, with a CAGR of 6.17% through 2031. This growth is attributed to the Renewable Energy Directive III (RED III) double-counting of bio-ethyl tertiary-butyl ether (bio-ETBE) and the integration of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) off-gas, which provides cost-effective isobutylene.

Liquid formulations accounted for 62.14% of the antiknock agents market share in 2025 and are projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.88%. This growth is attributed to their compatibility with pipelines and the convenience they offer in terminal dosing processes. Additionally, Chevron's inline analyzers contributed to operational efficiency by reducing octane giveaway by 0.4 points, which resulted in cost savings of USD 3.2 million in oxygenate expenses. These factors highlight the significant role of liquid formulations in the antiknock agents market.

Geography Analysis

In 2025, the Asia-Pacific region accounted for 46.11% of the antiknock agents market revenue and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 6.28% through 2031. China's 300 million-vehicle fleet, along with its transition to 95 Research Octane Number (RON), is driving Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether (MTBE) demand. In India, the implementation of Bharat Stage VII is leading to upgrades in Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) catalysts, with BASF's Fourtiva supporting aromatic control. Japan's hybrid vehicles, requiring a 100 RON premium, have contributed to a 6% increase in high-octane sales, despite a decline in overall gasoline consumption.

North America's antiknock agents market is experiencing stable volumes but an increase in octane intensity. The region's year-round E15 adoption and Canada's Clean Fuel Regulations are supporting the use of ethanol and bio-MTBE. In Mexico, reduced tariff barriers have facilitated higher MTBE imports. While electric vehicle penetration is reducing U.S. gasoline consumption by 1.1% annually, the growth of turbo-hybrids is maintaining strong demand for premium-grade fuels.

Europe is progressing due to renewable mandates. France has increased its bio-MTBE usage to 6.8 vol%, while Germany is targeting a 12-15% blend for carbon dioxide (CO2) compliance. The United Kingdom's E10 baseline still allows for a 97+ RON premium, which grew by 9% in 2025. Norway, with a 92% share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), has reduced gasoline consumption by 11%, indicating a future shift in antiknock agents market demand toward premium segments.

1. Afton Chemical
2. Baker Hughes Company
3. BASF
4. Braskem
5. Chevron Oronite Company LLC
6. China National Petroleum Corporation
7. Evonik Industries AG
8. Ifineum International Limited
9. Innospec
10. LyondellBasell Industries Holdings B.V.
11. PetroChina Company Limited
12. SABIC
13. The Lubrizol Corporation
14. TotalEnergies

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Turbocharged downsizing requiring higher octane fuels
  • 4.2.2 Rapid motorisation in SE-Asia with lax aromatic limits
  • 4.2.3 Bio-MTBE and Bio-ETBE adoption to meet EU renewable targets
  • 4.2.4 E-fuel pilot projects creating drop-in octane demand
  • 4.2.5 SAF off-gas integration enabling co-produced bio-ethers
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 Ethanol price volatility and US "blend-wall" constraints
  • 4.3.2 Electric Vehicle penetration eroding gasoline demand base
  • 4.3.3 Next-gen engine controls reducing octane requirement
• 4.4 Value Chain Analysis
• 4.5 Porter's Five Forces
  • 4.5.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.5.2 Bargaining Power of Consumers
  • 4.5.3 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.5.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.5.5 Degree of Competition

5 Market Size and Growth Forecasts (Value)

• 5.1 By Product Type
  • 5.1.1 Ethanol
  • 5.1.2 Tetraethyllead (TEL)
  • 5.1.3 Methyl-Tert-Butyl Ether (MTBE)
  • 5.1.4 Ethyl-Tert-Butyl Ether (ETBE)
  • 5.1.5 Ethylbenzene and other Aromatics
  • 5.1.6 Ferrocene and other metallics
  • 5.1.7 Bio-based Oxygenates
  • 5.1.8 Others
• 5.2 By Form
  • 5.2.1 Liquid
  • 5.2.2 Solid
  • 5.2.3 Additive Packages/Concentrates
• 5.3 By Distribution Channel
  • 5.3.1 Bulk Terminal Injection
  • 5.3.2 OEM Supply
  • 5.3.3 Retail Aftermarket
• 5.4 By Application
  • 5.4.1 Automotive
  • 5.4.2 Aviation
  • 5.4.3 Industrial Engines
  • 5.4.4 Petro-refining and Blending
  • 5.4.5 Other Applications
• 5.5 By Geography
  • 5.5.1 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.5.1.1 China
    • 5.5.1.2 India
    • 5.5.1.3 Japan
    • 5.5.1.4 South Korea
    • 5.5.1.5 ASEAN
    • 5.5.1.6 Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • 5.5.2 North America
    • 5.5.2.1 United States
    • 5.5.2.2 Canada
    • 5.5.2.3 Mexico
  • 5.5.3 Europe
    • 5.5.3.1 Germany
    • 5.5.3.2 United Kingdom
    • 5.5.3.3 France
    • 5.5.3.4 Italy
    • 5.5.3.5 Russia
    • 5.5.3.6 Rest of Europe
  • 5.5.4 South America
    • 5.5.4.1 Brazil
    • 5.5.4.2 Argentina
    • 5.5.4.3 Rest of South America
  • 5.5.5 Middle-East and Africa
    • 5.5.5.1 Saudi Arabia
    • 5.5.5.2 South Africa
    • 5.5.5.3 Rest of Middle-East and Africa

6 Competitive Landscape

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves
• 6.3 Market Share(%)/Ranking Analysis
• 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global Overview, Market Overview, Core Segments, Financials, Strategic Information, Products and Services, and Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 Afton Chemical
  • 6.4.2 Baker Hughes Company
  • 6.4.3 BASF
  • 6.4.4 Braskem
  • 6.4.5 Chevron Oronite Company LLC
  • 6.4.6 China National Petroleum Corporation
  • 6.4.7 Evonik Industries AG
  • 6.4.8 Ifineum International Limited
  • 6.4.9 Innospec
  • 6.4.10 LyondellBasell Industries Holdings B.V.
  • 6.4.11 PetroChina Company Limited
  • 6.4.12 SABIC
  • 6.4.13 The Lubrizol Corporation
  • 6.4.14 TotalEnergies

7 Market Opportunities and Future Outlook

• 7.1 White-space and Unmet-Need Assessment