자발적 탄소 시장 : 점유율 분석, 업계 동향과 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the voluntary carbon market was valued at USD 2.36 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow from USD 2.83 billion in 2026 to USD 7.06 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 20.06% during the forecast period 2026-2031.

This report is Segmented by Credit Type (Avoidance and Reduction Projects, and Removal Projects), Project Category (Renewable Energy Projects, Forestry and Land Use Projects, Waste Management and Methane Avoidance Projects, and More), Transaction Type (Spot Transactions, and More), End-User Industry (Energy and Utilities, and More), and Geography. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Global Voluntary Carbon Market Trends and Insights

Corporate Net-Zero Commitments and Scope 3 Targets

More than 12,000 companies had SBTi-approved targets in 2025, which gives the voluntary carbon market a broad and durable demand base tied to formal decarbonization plans rather than discretionary spending. As 2030 milestones approach, these commitments are pushing carbon credit procurement into operational decisions involving supply chains, product claims, and investor communication. The pressure is greater for Scope 3 emissions because disclosure expectations now reach beyond direct operations and force buyers to look at residual emissions across upstream and downstream activities. This is why the voluntary carbon market is seeing more interest in multi-year purchasing structures instead of one-time retirements linked only to annual reporting cycles. It also helps explain why buyers are treating access to credible future supply as a strategic issue rather than a short-term sustainability expense.

Shift Toward High-Integrity Credits and Buyer Scrutiny

The voluntary carbon market is separating into a premium tier of credits that can support public claims and a lower-priced tier that faces rising scrutiny on additionality and permanence. VCMI required CCP-approved or Article 6.4 credits for climate claims from January 2026, which raised the practical procurement threshold for institutional buyers. ICVCM had approved 9 carbon-crediting programs and covered around 107 million CCP-eligible credits by April 2026, which is expanding the addressable pool of credits that meet stronger integrity screens. ICVCM also reported that CCP-labeled credits were earning an average premium of around 25%, which shows that quality is influencing price formation in a more visible way. In the voluntary carbon market, this raises pressure on legacy avoidance developers while strengthening the position of suppliers with auditable and higher-durability portfolios.

Credit Quality, Additionality, and Permanence Controversies

The voluntary carbon market continues to face trust issues because academic and regulatory scrutiny is now directly affecting buyer behavior and procurement rules. A 2026 Nature Communications study highlighted systematic over-crediting risks in forest carbon credits and showed how baseline inflation can weaken the real climate effect of issued units. Nature Climate Change also warned in January 2026 that unresolved flaws in UNFCCC carbon trading design could undermine climate action, including cases where independent analysis pointed to major over-crediting risk. Under VCMI rules, companies making public climate claims now face greater legal and reputational exposure if retired credits later fail integrity tests. In the voluntary carbon market, that risk is suppressing weaker avoidance demand while shifting buyer preference toward credits with stronger permanence buffers and more transparent verification.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Demand for Durable Carbon Removal for Hard-to-Abate Sectors
2. Expansion of Digital MRV, Registry Interoperability, and Traceability Tools
3. Fragmented Standards, Registry Rules, and Legal Recognition

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Avoidance and Reduction Projects captured 69.43% of the voluntary carbon market share in 2025, which shows how strongly current trading volumes still depend on renewable energy, forestry, waste, and industrial efficiency credits. The voluntary carbon market continues to rely on this broad supply base because these credits remain more available, easier to source, and more familiar to buyers with immediate retirement needs. Even so, the pricing environment is changing as stronger integrity screens narrow the pool of legacy credits that can support public claims. That is making avoidance suppliers more exposed to quality reviews, methodology changes, and margin pressure in the voluntary carbon market.

Removal Projects are projected to grow at a 23.71% CAGR from 2026 to 2031, which makes them the most differentiated expansion track in the voluntary carbon industry. Buyers are moving in this direction because durable removal is becoming more important for residual emissions that cannot be reduced quickly enough through direct abatement. Carbon Direct stated that the current CDR market stood at 8 million tonnes, which remains far below the scale required for long-term decarbonization pathways. In Q1 2026, 95% of retired CDR credits came from nature-based solutions while high-durability engineered approaches made up only 5% of supply, which underlines how constrained verified durable supply still is. The voluntary carbon market is therefore shifting in favor of removal, but scale-up remains the main constraint rather than demand formation.

Renewable Energy Projects accounted for 39.72% of the voluntary carbon market size in 2025, which kept them in the leading project category because of large credit volumes and broad registry familiarity. These projects still support current liquidity in the voluntary carbon market, especially where issuance costs are lower, and buyers need an accessible supply for ongoing retirement programs. Their medium-term position is less secure because additionality arguments weaken in markets where solar and wind projects are already commercially viable without subsidy. That is starting to reshape project selection toward categories that can show clearer climate impact and stronger verification logic.

Waste Management and Methane Avoidance Projects are projected to grow at a 21.83% CAGR from 2026 to 2031, making them the fastest-growing project category in the voluntary carbon market. Their appeal is rising because methane destruction delivers a more immediate climate effect and is easier for buyers to explain in impact terms than some older project types. Landfill methane credits reached their highest-ever retirement share at 10% of total retirements in Q1 2026, which points to stronger buyer traction for this category. Agriculture and Blue Carbon remained smaller categories, but regenerative agriculture credits surpassed 5 million annualized credits in Q1 2026 and marine and mangrove carbon credits reached 5.3 million. CORSIA-eligible credits also represented nearly 50% of new issuances in Q1 2026, which suggests that aviation-linked quality filters are influencing project category demand more broadly.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Credit Type
  • Avoidance and Reduction Projects
  • Removal Projects
• By Project Category
  • Renewable Energy Projects
  • Forestry and Land Use Projects
  • Waste Management and Methane Avoidance Projects
  • Agriculture Projects
  • Blue Carbon Projects
  • Other Project Categories
• By Transaction Type
  • Spot Transactions
  • Forward Transactions
  • Long-Term Offtake Agreements
• By End User Industry
  • Energy and Utilities
  • Manufacturing and Industrial
  • Consumer Goods and Retail
  • Transportation and Logistics
  • Financial Services
  • Technology and Telecommunications
  • Government Agencies
  • Non-Governmental Organizations
  • Individuals
  • Other End User Industries
• By Geography
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Mexico
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Chile
    • Rest of South America
  • Europe
    • Germany
    • United Kingdom
    • France
    • Italy
    • Spain
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia-pacific
    • China
    • Japan
    • India
    • Australia
    • South Korea
    • Singapore
    • Rest of Asia-pacific
  • Middle East
    • Saudi Arabia
    • United Arab Emirates
    • Turkey
    • Rest of Middle East
  • Africa
    • South Africa
    • Egypt
    • Nigeria
    • Rest of Africa

Geography Analysis

North America retained 37.61% market share in 2025, and the region remained the deepest and most liquid voluntary carbon market in current trading conditions. North American project developers supplied 57% of global investment-grade BBB+ issuances, which shows the region's strength in higher-rated credit generation as well as demand. The United States remains the main demand engine because corporate buyers there are active across removal offtake, structured finance, and large retirement programs. CO280 and JPMorganChase agreed in May 2025 on a 450,000 metric tonne CDR offtake over 13 years at under USD 200 per tonne, which helped establish a more concrete benchmark for engineered removals from the pulp and paper pathway. Canada is also gaining visibility as a production hub for engineered removal, supported by Alberta's storage base and new direct air capture collaboration efforts.

Europe accounted for a large share of quality-sensitive demand in 2026, with EU and EEA buyers holding 51% of high-rated retirements. This signals that the voluntary carbon market in Europe is shaped less by raw volume and more by stronger screening of claims, ratings, and disclosure risks. The region is also building more supply-side depth in engineered removal, as shown by Metsa Group's planning work for a commercial wood-based carbon capture plant in Rauma, Finland. That development suggests Europe is starting to align local demand preferences with a more credible domestic removal pipeline.

Asia-Pacific is projected to grow at a 22.19% CAGR through 2031, which gives it the fastest regional expansion rate in the voluntary carbon market. The region is increasingly relevant because it combines rising demand centers with project origination opportunities and a greater role in future cross-border recognition of high-integrity units. South America remains essential on the supply side, especially for REDD+ and ARR pathways, and Sylvera noted that South American REDD+ retirements were already outpacing new supply issuance. Middle East and Africa also remain important supply regions, with Africa contributing more high-rated cookstove and waste credits while Gulf buyers are becoming more active through sovereign climate commitments and bilateral carbon arrangements.

1. Verra
2. Gold Standard Foundation
3. Climate Action Reserve
4. South Pole
5. Climate Impact Partners
6. American Carbon Registry
7. 3Degrees
8. CBL Xpansiv
9. Climate Impact X
10. CEEZER
11. Carbonfuture
12. Patch
13. Carbonplace
14. Sylvera
15. Nori
16. KlimaDAO
17. Allcot Group
18. Everland
19. Rubicon Carbon
20. AirCarbon Exchange

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

• 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4 MARKET LANDSCAPE

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Corporate Net-Zero Commitments and Scope 3 Targets
  • 4.2.2 Shift Toward High-Integrity Credits and Buyer Scrutiny
  • 4.2.3 Expansion Of Digital MRV, Registry Interoperability, and Traceability Tools
  • 4.2.4 Demand for Durable Carbon Removal for Hard-to-Abate Sectors
  • 4.2.5 Structured Finance for Forward Offtake and Credit Inventory
  • 4.2.6 Emerging Cross-Border Recognition of High-Integrity Carbon Units
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 Credit Quality, Additionality, and Permanence Controversies
  • 4.3.2 Fragmented Standards, Registry Rules, and Legal Recognition
  • 4.3.3 Volatile Prices And Weak Forward Visibility for Avoidance Credits
  • 4.3.4 Counterparty and Delivery Risk in Long-Dated Offtake Contracts
• 4.4 Regulatory Landscape
• 4.5 Industry Value-Chain Analysis
• 4.6 Technological Outlook
• 4.7 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • 4.7.1 Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.7.3 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.7.5 Industry Rivalry
• 4.8 Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the Market

5 MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH FORECASTS (VALUE)

• 5.1 By Credit Type
  • 5.1.1 Avoidance and Reduction Projects
  • 5.1.2 Removal Projects
• 5.2 By Project Category
  • 5.2.1 Renewable Energy Projects
  • 5.2.2 Forestry and Land Use Projects
  • 5.2.3 Waste Management and Methane Avoidance Projects
  • 5.2.4 Agriculture Projects
  • 5.2.5 Blue Carbon Projects
  • 5.2.6 Other Project Categories
• 5.3 By Transaction Type
  • 5.3.1 Spot Transactions
  • 5.3.2 Forward Transactions
  • 5.3.3 Long-Term Offtake Agreements
• 5.4 By End User Industry
  • 5.4.1 Energy and Utilities
  • 5.4.2 Manufacturing and Industrial
  • 5.4.3 Consumer Goods and Retail
  • 5.4.4 Transportation and Logistics
  • 5.4.5 Financial Services
  • 5.4.6 Technology and Telecommunications
  • 5.4.7 Government Agencies
  • 5.4.8 Non-Governmental Organizations
  • 5.4.9 Individuals
  • 5.4.10 Other End User Industries
• 5.5 By Geography
  • 5.5.1 North America
    • 5.5.1.1 United States
    • 5.5.1.2 Canada
    • 5.5.1.3 Mexico
  • 5.5.2 South America
    • 5.5.2.1 Brazil
    • 5.5.2.2 Argentina
    • 5.5.2.3 Chile
    • 5.5.2.4 Rest of South America
  • 5.5.3 Europe
    • 5.5.3.1 Germany
    • 5.5.3.2 United Kingdom
    • 5.5.3.3 France
    • 5.5.3.4 Italy
    • 5.5.3.5 Spain
    • 5.5.3.6 Rest of Europe
  • 5.5.4 Asia-pacific
    • 5.5.4.1 China
    • 5.5.4.2 Japan
    • 5.5.4.3 India
    • 5.5.4.4 Australia
    • 5.5.4.5 South Korea
    • 5.5.4.6 Singapore
    • 5.5.4.7 Rest of Asia-pacific
  • 5.5.5 Middle East
    • 5.5.5.1 Saudi Arabia
    • 5.5.5.2 United Arab Emirates
    • 5.5.5.3 Turkey
    • 5.5.5.4 Rest of Middle East
  • 5.5.6 Africa
    • 5.5.6.1 South Africa
    • 5.5.6.2 Egypt
    • 5.5.6.3 Nigeria
    • 5.5.6.4 Rest of Africa

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves
• 6.3 Market Share Analysis
• 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global Level Overview, Market Level Overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share, Products and Services, Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 Verra
  • 6.4.2 Gold Standard Foundation
  • 6.4.3 Climate Action Reserve
  • 6.4.4 South Pole
  • 6.4.5 Climate Impact Partners
  • 6.4.6 American Carbon Registry
  • 6.4.7 3Degrees
  • 6.4.8 CBL Xpansiv
  • 6.4.9 Climate Impact X
  • 6.4.10 CEEZER
  • 6.4.11 Carbonfuture
  • 6.4.12 Patch
  • 6.4.13 Carbonplace
  • 6.4.14 Sylvera
  • 6.4.15 Nori
  • 6.4.16 KlimaDAO
  • 6.4.17 Allcot Group
  • 6.4.18 Everland
  • 6.4.19 Rubicon Carbon
  • 6.4.20 AirCarbon Exchange

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK

• 7.1 White-Space And Unmet-Need Assessment