탄소 배출량 예측 및 시나리오 모델링 소프트웨어 시장 : 점유율 분석, 업계 동향과 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the predictive carbon forecasting and scenario modeling software market size is projected to expand from USD 1.38 billion in 2025 and USD 1.59 billion in 2026 to USD 3.66 billion by 2031, registering a CAGR of 18.09% between 2026 and 2031.

This report is Segmented by Offering (Software, and Services), Deployment Mode (Cloud-Based, On-Premises, and Hybrid), Application (Emissions Forecasting, and More), Enterprise Size (Large Enterprises, and Small and Medium Enterprises), End-User Industry (Energy and Utilities, BFSI, and More) and Geography. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Global Predictive Carbon Forecasting and Scenario Modeling Software Market Trends and Insights

Regulatory Pressure on Climate Disclosures and Net-Zero Planning

Regulatory pressure remains the most immediate driver of software demand, as disclosure rules now require companies to organize carbon data to support planning, verification, and scenario testing rather than simple year-end reporting. The IFRS Foundation updated greenhouse gas disclosure requirements under IFRS S2 in December 2025 to reduce implementation complexity while preserving decision-useful reporting, helping sustain enterprise demand as reporting expectations evolved across market. The United States introduced uncertainty when the SEC proposed rescinding its climate disclosure rules in May 2026, but that did not remove the broader demand for decision-ready tools, as many companies still operate across multiple reporting regimes and face investor expectations. This matters for the predictive carbon forecasting and scenario modeling software market because scenario analysis is increasingly treated as part of financial governance, not only as a sustainability compliance task. Vendors that frame their tools as planning infrastructure are therefore better positioned than vendors that depend mainly on compliance checklists. The effect is that the predictive carbon forecasting and scenario modeling software market continues to benefit from regulation even when individual rules are revised, delayed, or challenged.

Integration of AI for Emissions Forecasting and Abatement Pathway Optimization

AI is reshaping how carbon software is used because buyers now expect faster data cleaning, quicker simulations, and more interactive interpretation of results within a single workflow. SAP stated in May 2026 that its Footprint Optimization Agent reduced scenario simulation time from around 1 day to 20 minutes, demonstrating how software competition is moving toward faster response times and greater operational usability. A peer-reviewed study published in April 2026 also found that coordinated deep-learning architectures outperformed traditional baseline methods for predicting carbon emissions in energy-intensive industries, supporting the broader move toward AI-driven forecasting models. That shift expands the role of these tools from static emissions reporting into active pathway selection, transaction-level analysis, and faster decision support. It also raises the bar for product design in the predictive carbon forecasting and scenario modeling software market, because buyers will compare not only model breadth but also the time needed to reach a usable answer. As more platforms embed AI natively, the predictive carbon forecasting and scenario modeling software market is likely to further separate between vendors with strong technical depth and those that only automate surface-level reporting tasks.

Limited Quality and Availability of Scope 3 and Supplier Activity Data

Supplier data quality remains the largest operating constraint, because the most material emissions categories are often the least standardized and the hardest to verify across complex value chains. In April 2025, one survey found that 79% of organizations identified supplier data availability as their top challenge, while 62% pointed to internal data quality as a major barrier, which shows that reporting maturity has not solved the input problem. Another study noted that Scope 3 emissions often account for more than 75% of a company's total emissions and that supplier data gaps remain the main obstacle to accurate quantification. That weakness directly affects the predictive carbon forecasting and scenario modeling software market because models can only be as credible as the data used to train, map, and test them. Companies can still use spend-based proxies and estimation logic, but those methods weaken confidence when investors, auditors, or procurement teams need greater precision. Until supplier participation improves at scale, the predictive carbon forecasting and scenario modeling software market will continue to face a practical ceiling on how far model outputs can be trusted in high-stakes decisions.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Rising Enterprise Demand for Forward-Looking Carbon Scenario Planning
2. Expansion of ESG-Linked Capital Allocation and Board-Level Climate Governance
3. High Integration Complexity With ERP, EHS, and Data-Lake Environments

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Software accounted for 76.12% of revenue in 2025, indicating that licensed platforms remained the center of enterprise spending in the predictive carbon forecasting and scenario modeling market. Buyers increasingly favored tools they could use repeatedly across reporting, planning, and risk review cycles rather than relying solely on project-led advisory work. This pattern also indicates that many organizations had already moved past early scoping exercises and started embedding carbon analysis into routine operating processes. In that setting, platform ownership matters because recurring access enables faster updates, broader internal use, and more consistent governance of assumptions and audit trails. It also gives vendors a stronger basis for product improvement because subscription revenue can be reinvested in modeling depth, AI functionality, and workflow design.

Services are still expanding faster, with a projected CAGR of 21.54% through 2031, because software alone does not remove the need for implementation support, scenario design, and interpretation of results. Many organizations can collect basic emissions data, but they still need external help to build credible abatement pathways, stress-test commitments, and prepare outputs for investor or auditor review. This means service growth is not a sign of weak software adoption, but rather that the predictive carbon forecasting and scenario modeling software market is moving into more complex use cases. As modeling becomes more material to strategy, buyers are more willing to pay for expert support around model setup and governance. Over time, this creates a linked revenue pattern in which software remains the anchor and services grow as an attached layer around deeper adoption. The predictive carbon forecasting and scenario modeling software market, therefore, shows a mature software core with a growing advisory edge, rather than a choice between the 2 models.

Cloud-based deployment accounted for 65.13% of revenue in 2025, reflecting enterprise demand for flexible platforms that can handle large data volumes, support regular updates, and enable scenario testing across different business units. In the predictive carbon forecasting and scenario modeling software market, cloud deployment reduces infrastructure friction and enables centralization of emissions data, scenario libraries, and user access across global operations. It also supports faster product updates when rules, pathways, and disclosure requirements change. That is important in a category where models must be refreshed as assumptions evolve and as companies widen their Scope 3 coverage. Cloud architecture further helps vendors deliver analytics features that require greater computing capacity and shared model environments.

Cloud-based deployment is projected to expand at a 20.92% CAGR through 2031, indicating that the largest model remains the fastest-growing in the predictive carbon forecasting and scenario modeling software market. In May 2026, one vendor introduced a cloud-native platform designed to deliver an audit-ready baseline within weeks while reducing data-collection effort, underscoring why buyers associate cloud models with faster setup and lower operating drag. On-premise environments still matter for institutions with strict control needs, and hybrid models remain useful where data residency or contractual sensitivity is a concern. Even so, new deployments continue to favor the cloud because the value of faster onboarding, shared access, and easier scaling is hard to match through local infrastructure. This dynamic gives cloud vendors more room to widen their reach inside the predictive carbon forecasting and scenario modeling software market. It also encourages product design that assumes continuous data ingestion and frequent scenario iteration rather than infrequent batch analysis.

Complete Report Scope:

• By offering
  • Software
  • Services
• By Deployment Mode
  • Cloud-Based
  • On-Premise
  • Hybrid
• By Application
  • Emissions Forecasting
  • Climate Scenario and Pathway Modeling
  • Climate and Transition Risk Assessment
  • Decarbonization Planning and Abatement Optimization
• By Enterprise Size
  • Large Enterprises
  • Small and Medium Enterprises
• By End User Industry
  • BFSI
  • Energy and Utilities
  • Oil and Gas
  • Manufacturing and Industrial
  • Transportation and Logistics
  • Technology and Telecommunications
  • Retail and Consumer Goods
  • Other Industries
• By Geography
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Mexico
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Rest of South America
  • Europe
    • Germany
    • United Kingdom
    • France
    • Italy
    • Spain
    • Russia
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia-Pacific
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • Australia
    • Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • Middle East and Africa
    • Middle East
      • Saudi Arabia
      • United Arab Emirates
      • Rest of Middle East
    • Africa
      • South Africa
      • Nigeria
      • Rest of Africa

Geography Analysis

North America accounted for 35.12% of revenue in 2025, making it the largest regional contributor to the predictive carbon forecasting and scenario modeling software market. The region benefits from a dense base of listed companies, mature software procurement practices, and a strong concentration of enterprise platform vendors. It also has a deep investor ecosystem that tends to push climate reporting and planning issues into board and finance discussions sooner than in less mature enterprise software markets. The United States remained the main demand center because many large companies already had disclosure processes and internal controls that could be extended into carbon planning workflows. This gave the predictive carbon forecasting and scenario modeling software market a strong commercial base in North America, even as the federal policy environment became less consistent.

Asia-Pacific is projected to expand at a 22.91% CAGR through 2031, which makes it the fastest-growing regional segment in the predictive carbon forecasting and scenario modeling software market. A broader shift toward formal climate disclosure requirements, rising decarbonization investment, and the growing need for supplier-level carbon visibility across export-oriented production networks support growth in the region. China added an important technology signal in April 2026 when the Chinese Academy of Sciences released the Panshi Yuheng carbon accounting large model v1.0, showing active development of domestic carbon modeling infrastructure NEA.GOV.CN. That matters because regional adoption is not driven solely by imported compliance frameworks, but also by local capability-building and industrial policy goals. The predictive carbon forecasting and scenario modeling software market, therefore, has room to grow in Asia-Pacific through both multinational demand and local platform development.

Europe continues to provide a strong base for the predictive carbon forecasting and scenario modeling software market because climate governance is already embedded in many corporate reporting and risk management processes. Even where reporting simplification has reduced some compliance burden, scenario analysis remains closely tied to how enterprises frame material climate exposure and long-term planning. South America is still smaller, but export-oriented sectors and financial institutions are creating selective demand for more structured carbon planning tools. The Middle East and Africa remain early-stage markets, yet interest is rising as state energy companies, sovereign investors, and listed firms are building more formal climate transition roadmaps. Across these regions, the predictive carbon forecasting and scenario modeling software market is most likely to grow where buyers can connect compliance needs with practical planning value rather than treat software as a reporting-only purchase.

1. Microsoft Corporation
2. Salesforce, Inc.
3. SAP SE
4. IBM Corporation
5. Oracle Corporation
6. Persefoni AI, Inc.
7. Watershed Technology, Inc.
8. Sweep SAS
9. Plan A Earth GmbH
10. Greenly SAS
11. Normative AB
12. Sinai Technologies, Inc.
13. Emitwise Ltd.
14. Position Green AB
15. Gaia Carbon Accounting Ltd.
16. Sphera Solutions, Inc.
17. Enablon North America Corp.
18. Evercomm Singapore Pte. Ltd.
19. Workiva Inc.
20. Terrascope Pte. Ltd.
21. VelocityEHS Holdings, Inc.
22. ClimateView AB
23. Intelex Technologies ULC
24. CarbonChain Ltd.
25. Accacia AI Solutions Pvt. Ltd.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

• 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4 MARKET LANDSCAPE

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Regulatory Pressure on Climate Disclosures and Net-Zero Planning
  • 4.2.2 Rising Enterprise Demand for Forward-Looking Carbon Scenario Planning
  • 4.2.3 Expansion of ESG-Linked Capital Allocation and Board-Level Climate Governance
  • 4.2.4 Growing Adoption of Cloud-Based Sustainability Platforms in Large Enterprises
  • 4.2.5 Integration of AI for Emissions Forecasting and Abatement Pathway Optimization
  • 4.2.6 Need to Quantify Transition Risk Across Supplier, Asset, and Portfolio Decisions
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 Limited Quality and Availability of Scope 3 and Supplier Activity Data
  • 4.3.2 High Integration Complexity With ERP, EHS, and Data-Lake Environments
  • 4.3.3 Budget Scrutiny and Slow ROI Realization for Mid-Market Buyers
  • 4.3.4 Model Credibility Concerns From Assumption Sensitivity and Audit Scrutiny
• 4.4 Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the Market
• 4.5 Industry Value Chain Analysis
• 4.6 Technological Outlook
• 4.7 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • 4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.7.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH FORECASTS (VALUE)

• 5.1 By offering
  • 5.1.1 Software
  • 5.1.2 Services
• 5.2 By Deployment Mode
  • 5.2.1 Cloud-Based
  • 5.2.2 On-Premise
  • 5.2.3 Hybrid
• 5.3 By Application
  • 5.3.1 Emissions Forecasting
  • 5.3.2 Climate Scenario and Pathway Modeling
  • 5.3.3 Climate and Transition Risk Assessment
  • 5.3.4 Decarbonization Planning and Abatement Optimization
• 5.4 By Enterprise Size
  • 5.4.1 Large Enterprises
  • 5.4.2 Small and Medium Enterprises
• 5.5 By End User Industry
  • 5.5.1 BFSI
  • 5.5.2 Energy and Utilities
  • 5.5.3 Oil and Gas
  • 5.5.4 Manufacturing and Industrial
  • 5.5.5 Transportation and Logistics
  • 5.5.6 Technology and Telecommunications
  • 5.5.7 Retail and Consumer Goods
  • 5.5.8 Other Industries
• 5.6 By Geography
  • 5.6.1 North America
    • 5.6.1.1 United States
    • 5.6.1.2 Canada
    • 5.6.1.3 Mexico
  • 5.6.2 South America
    • 5.6.2.1 Brazil
    • 5.6.2.2 Argentina
    • 5.6.2.3 Rest of South America
  • 5.6.3 Europe
    • 5.6.3.1 Germany
    • 5.6.3.2 United Kingdom
    • 5.6.3.3 France
    • 5.6.3.4 Italy
    • 5.6.3.5 Spain
    • 5.6.3.6 Russia
    • 5.6.3.7 Rest of Europe
  • 5.6.4 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.6.4.1 China
    • 5.6.4.2 India
    • 5.6.4.3 Japan
    • 5.6.4.4 South Korea
    • 5.6.4.5 Australia
    • 5.6.4.6 Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • 5.6.5 Middle East and Africa
    • 5.6.5.1 Middle East
      • 5.6.5.1.1 Saudi Arabia
      • 5.6.5.1.2 United Arab Emirates
      • 5.6.5.1.3 Rest of Middle East
    • 5.6.5.2 Africa
      • 5.6.5.2.1 South Africa
      • 5.6.5.2.2 Nigeria
      • 5.6.5.2.3 Rest of Africa

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves
• 6.3 Market Share Analysis
• 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global Level Overview, Market Level Overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share, Products and Services, Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 Microsoft Corporation
  • 6.4.2 Salesforce, Inc.
  • 6.4.3 SAP SE
  • 6.4.4 IBM Corporation
  • 6.4.5 Oracle Corporation
  • 6.4.6 Persefoni AI, Inc.
  • 6.4.7 Watershed Technology, Inc.
  • 6.4.8 Sweep SAS
  • 6.4.9 Plan A Earth GmbH
  • 6.4.10 Greenly SAS
  • 6.4.11 Normative AB
  • 6.4.12 Sinai Technologies, Inc.
  • 6.4.13 Emitwise Ltd.
  • 6.4.14 Position Green AB
  • 6.4.15 Gaia Carbon Accounting Ltd.
  • 6.4.16 Sphera Solutions, Inc.
  • 6.4.17 Enablon North America Corp.
  • 6.4.18 Evercomm Singapore Pte. Ltd.
  • 6.4.19 Workiva Inc.
  • 6.4.20 Terrascope Pte. Ltd.
  • 6.4.21 VelocityEHS Holdings, Inc.
  • 6.4.22 ClimateView AB
  • 6.4.23 Intelex Technologies ULC
  • 6.4.24 CarbonChain Ltd.
  • 6.4.25 Accacia AI Solutions Pvt. Ltd.

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK

• 7.1 White-Space and Unmet-Need Assessment