바이오디젤 : 시장 점유율 분석, 업계 동향과 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the biodiesel market size was valued at USD 48.62 billion in 2025 and estimated to grow from USD 52.17 billion in 2026 to reach USD 74.22 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 7.30% during the forecast period (2026-2031).

This report is Segmented by Feedstock (Vegetable Oils, Waste Cooking Oil and Tallow, and More), Production Process (Trans-Esterification, Hydro-Treated Vegetable Oil, and Co-processed/Co-refined Diesel), Blend Level (B5 and Below, B6 To B20, and B100), Application (Transportation-Road, Industrial and Others, and More), and Geography (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, South America, and Middle East and Africa).

Global Biodiesel Market Trends and Insights

Renewable-fuel Blend Mandates Expanding

National blend programmes are scaling rapidly, guaranteeing sizeable offtake volumes and underpinning long-term financing across the biodiesel market. Brazil's Fuel-of-the-Future law raises the obligatory blend from B14 to B17 by 2027 and foresees B25 later in the decade, lifting domestic biodiesel use from 9.3 billion litres in 2024 to 12.3 billion litres by 2027. Indonesia is rolling out its B40 programme, while all EU member states must align with higher advanced biofuel quotas under RED-III. British Columbia now insists that 8% of diesel renewable content be produced domestically from April 2025, signalling how mandates increasingly favour local supply. Renewable Fuel Standard obligations remain in force in the United States and provide a dependable compliance baseline. These rules establish price floors, enabling producers to expand capacity and adopt efficiency-enhancing technologies.

Hard-to-Abate Sectors Seeking Drop-in Decarbonisation

Mining, marine, and rail operators' segments, where electrification lags, are adopting biodiesel blends to meet near-term carbon-reduction goals without infrastructure overhauls. Global mining firms spend roughly USD 7 billion annually on diesel equipment; switching to B20 or renewable diesel delivers 50-85% lifecycle emission cuts while lowering particulate outputs sharply. In Europe, Chevron Renewable Energy Group supplies EN 14214-grade fuel that cuts particulate matter in mines from 300-800 µg m3 to 50-200 µg m3. Marine uptake is growing through REG-Bunker Holding alliances to deploy B30, and freight rail trials show seamless engine compatibility. Willingness to pay decarbonisation premiums in these sectors supports higher-margin sales within the biodiesel market.

Feedstock Price Volatility

Soybean-oil quotations oscillated sharply through 2024 as Brazil's higher blends drew more volumes, eroding producer margins and prompting output optimisation at several plants. UCO values approached virgin-oil parity once LCFS credits were incorporated, diluting expected cost advantages. Neste cited elevated feedstock costs as a principal factor behind depressed margins in 2024 despite flat diesel benchmarks. Climatic disruptions and ongoing food-versus-fuel tensions compound price uncertainty, compelling firms across the biodiesel market to diversify inputs or adopt hedging strategies where possible.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. HVO and SAF Capacity Build-outs
2. Waste- & Residue-based Feedstock Credits
3. Land-use Change Scrutiny

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Vegetable oils still delivered 63.45% of the 2025 supply, sustaining baseline volumes for the biodiesel market, yet their growth tempo is flattening as policymakers and buyers chase lower carbon-intensity scores. Palm oil dominates South-East Asia, whereas soybean oil prevails in the Americas, but each faces scrutiny over land-use risks.

Waste cooking oil and tallow are projected to expand at a 10.15% CAGR, well ahead of edible oils, thanks to premium LCFS credits and emerging advanced-biofuel quotas. Brazil's beef-tallow exports, rising 144% year-on-year, signal widening global arbitrage. Algae-based oils and winter-canola pilots from the Neste-Bayer alliance illustrate the exploratory edge of feedstock R&D. Competition for residues is now sharpening, inserting new price volatility while steadily raising the sustainability bar across the biodiesel market.

The familiar trans-esterification route retained 70.35% share of the biodiesel market size in 2025 by virtue of its comparatively light capital burden and well-established supply chain compatibility. It remains the mainstay for many small-to-mid producers, particularly in developing economies with limited refinery integration.

However, HVO capacity is forecast to clock a 11.74% CAGR as oil majors leverage existing hydrotreaters to create fungible diesel, SAF, and naphtha streams. The biodiesel market benefits because HVO commands infrastructure parity with fossil diesel, enabling B100 equivalents without cold-flow problems. Higher-value technical-grade glycerin and flexible feedstock windows further enhance plant returns, spurring a pipeline of conversions and greenfields across Europe, North America, and Asia-Pacific.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Feedstock
  • Vegetable Oils
  • Waste Cooking Oil and Tallow
  • Animal Fat
  • Algae and Novel Feedstocks
• By Production Process
  • Trans-esterification (FAME)
  • Hydro-treated Vegetable Oil (HVO)
  • Co-processed/Co-refined Diesel
• By Blend Level
  • B5 and Below
  • B6 to B20
  • B100
• By Application
  • Transportation-Road
  • Transportation-Marine and Rail
  • Power Generation
  • Industrial and Others
• By Geography
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Mexico
  • Europe
    • Germany
    • United Kingdom
    • France
    • Italy
    • NORDIC Countries
    • Russia
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia-Pacific
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • ASEAN Countries
    • Australia & New Zealand
    • Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Rest of South America
  • Middle East and Africa
    • Saudi Arabia
    • United Arab Emirates
    • South Africa
    • Egypt
    • Rest of Middle East and Africa

Geography Analysis

Europe delivered 37.62% of global sales in 2025 and continues to reward low-carbon biodiesel through RED-III quotas, national carbon taxes, and subsidy schemes for waste-based feedstocks. Germany, France, and the United Kingdom each tightened blend obligations in 2025, and the Nordics are frontrunners in collecting municipal UCO for local processing, reinforcing regional circular-economy objectives. Sustainability certification remains stringent however, limiting feedstock choice and raising administrative overhead.

Asia-Pacific offers the fastest expansion path, showing a 10.02% CAGR projection to 2031 as Indonesia escalates toward B40, India allocates grants for capacity, and China integrates biodiesel into its dual-carbon roadmap. Accessible palm-oil supply, rising urban diesel demand, and supportive fiscal incentives make the region a strategic growth engine inside the biodiesel market. Nonetheless, export potential to Europe is checked by deforestation-linked rulings, compelling producers to upgrade traceability protocols.

North America holds mature infrastructure and policy stability via the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard and an expanding patchwork of state-level Low Carbon Fuel Standards. Advanced credit trading deepens revenue pools, yet LCFS credit oversupply recently squeezed pricing. South America, led by Brazil's trajectory toward B25, is simultaneously a feedstock powerhouse and a major internal market. Argentina's producers navigate export tariffs but maintain competitiveness regionally through soybean-oil scale and established esterification expertise.

1. Neste Oyj
2. Chevron Renewable Energy Group
3. Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)
4. Cargill
5. Bangchak Corp.
6. Wilmar International
7. Valero Energy
8. TotalEnergies
9. BP Biofuels
10. Shell Renewables & Energy Solutions
11. Marathon Petroleum (Green Bison)
12. Louis Dreyfus Company
13. Be8 Energy
14. Incobrasa
15. Pacific Biodiesel
16. AG Processing Inc.
17. Bunge Bioenergia
18. Green Plains Inc.
19. Eni Biofuels
20. Petrobras BioRefino

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Renewable-fuel blend mandates expanding (B5 to B20) in U.S., Brazil, Indonesia, EU
  • 4.2.2 Demand from hard-to-abate sectors (mining, marine, rail) seeking drop-in low-carbon fuels
  • 4.2.3 HVO/SAF capacity build-outs by oil majors (TotalEnergies, BP, Shell) drive glycerin off-take
  • 4.2.4 Waste- & residue-based feedstock credits (UCO, tallow) widen biodiesel-diesel margin
  • 4.2.5 Co-processing tech lowering CAPEX via existing refineries
  • 4.2.6 Carbon-intensity (CI) score premiums on LCFS & EU ETS
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 Feedstock price volatility (soy-oil, tallow) squeezes margins
  • 4.3.2 Land-use change scrutiny & EU RED-II cap on food-crop biofuels
  • 4.3.3 Oversupply of low-CI credits in U.S. LCFS depresses biodiesel prices
  • 4.3.4 Electrification of light-duty fleets slows on-road diesel pool
• 4.4 Supply-Chain Analysis
• 4.5 Regulatory Landscape & Government Policies
• 4.6 Technological Outlook (FAME, HVO, co-processing, algae)
• 4.7 Porter's Five Forces
  • 4.7.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.7.3 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.7.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry
• 4.8 Investment Analysis

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts

• 5.1 By Feedstock
  • 5.1.1 Vegetable Oils
  • 5.1.2 Waste Cooking Oil and Tallow
  • 5.1.3 Animal Fat
  • 5.1.4 Algae and Novel Feedstocks
• 5.2 By Production Process
  • 5.2.1 Trans-esterification (FAME)
  • 5.2.2 Hydro-treated Vegetable Oil (HVO)
  • 5.2.3 Co-processed/Co-refined Diesel
• 5.3 By Blend Level
  • 5.3.1 B5 and Below
  • 5.3.2 B6 to B20
  • 5.3.3 B100
• 5.4 By Application
  • 5.4.1 Transportation-Road
  • 5.4.2 Transportation-Marine and Rail
  • 5.4.3 Power Generation
  • 5.4.4 Industrial and Others
• 5.5 By Geography
  • 5.5.1 North America
    • 5.5.1.1 United States
    • 5.5.1.2 Canada
    • 5.5.1.3 Mexico
  • 5.5.2 Europe
    • 5.5.2.1 Germany
    • 5.5.2.2 United Kingdom
    • 5.5.2.3 France
    • 5.5.2.4 Italy
    • 5.5.2.5 NORDIC Countries
    • 5.5.2.6 Russia
    • 5.5.2.7 Rest of Europe
  • 5.5.3 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.5.3.1 China
    • 5.5.3.2 India
    • 5.5.3.3 Japan
    • 5.5.3.4 South Korea
    • 5.5.3.5 ASEAN Countries
    • 5.5.3.6 Australia & New Zealand
    • 5.5.3.7 Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • 5.5.4 South America
    • 5.5.4.1 Brazil
    • 5.5.4.2 Argentina
    • 5.5.4.3 Rest of South America
  • 5.5.5 Middle East and Africa
    • 5.5.5.1 Saudi Arabia
    • 5.5.5.2 United Arab Emirates
    • 5.5.5.3 South Africa
    • 5.5.5.4 Egypt
    • 5.5.5.5 Rest of Middle East and Africa

6 Competitive Landscape

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves (M&A, Partnerships, PPAs)
• 6.3 Market Share Analysis (Market Rank/Share for key companies)
• 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 Neste Oyj
  • 6.4.2 Chevron Renewable Energy Group
  • 6.4.3 Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)
  • 6.4.4 Cargill
  • 6.4.5 Bangchak Corp.
  • 6.4.6 Wilmar International
  • 6.4.7 Valero Energy
  • 6.4.8 TotalEnergies
  • 6.4.9 BP Biofuels
  • 6.4.10 Shell Renewables & Energy Solutions
  • 6.4.11 Marathon Petroleum (Green Bison)
  • 6.4.12 Louis Dreyfus Company
  • 6.4.13 Be8 Energy
  • 6.4.14 Incobrasa
  • 6.4.15 Pacific Biodiesel
  • 6.4.16 AG Processing Inc.
  • 6.4.17 Bunge Bioenergia
  • 6.4.18 Green Plains Inc.
  • 6.4.19 Eni Biofuels
  • 6.4.20 Petrobras BioRefino

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook

• 7.1 White-space & Unmet-need Assessment