자율운항 선박 시장 : 점유율 분석, 업계 동향과 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the autonomous ships market size is expected to grow from USD 6.90 billion in 2025 to USD 7.63 billion in 2026 and is forecasted to reach USD 12.05 billion by 2031 at a 9.58% CAGR over 2026-2031.

This report is Segmented by Autonomy Level (Partially Autonomous, Remotely Controlled, and More), Component (Hardware and Software), Ship Type (Cargo, Passenger, Defense, and More), End User (Commercial, Government and Military), Propulsion (Fully Electric, Hybrid, and Conventional), and Geography (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and More). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Global Autonomous Ships Market Trends and Insights

Data-Driven Fleet Optimization and Remote Operations

Fleet owners are building onshore control rooms that stream engine telemetry, weather feeds, and AIS traffic from several vessels simultaneously, allowing a single certified navigator to supervise up to six ships in real-time. Central dashboards replace traditional watch rotations, enabling operators to reduce bridge headcount, minimize travel expenses for crew changes, and achieve 24-hour specialist oversight without incurring overtime or voyage bonuses. Predictive maintenance algorithms flag bearing wear, injector fouling, and hull drag before failures strand a ship, shrinking unplanned off-hire days that erode charter revenue. Schedule reliability also improves because shore teams can re-route around sudden swell forecasts or berth congestion without waiting for the master to review multiple reports. Near-coast Ku-band links handle routine data; LEO satellites now provide sub-50 ms latency mid-ocean, allowing control centers to maintain deterministic command loops even during Pacific crossings. Hybrid system design keeps collision-avoidance logic resident on the vessel, guaranteeing that sudden bandwidth dips never degrade core safety functions during busy traffic separations or fog-bound harbor entries.

Decarbonization and Fuel Efficiency Propel Autonomous Ships

The IMO Carbon Intensity Indicator and the EU Emissions Trading System imposed a hard price on every gram of CO2 emitted per ton-mile, prompting operators to adopt AI-driven voyage planning that reduces fuel consumption by 5-12% on Asia-Europe and transpacific lanes in 2024. Wartsila's Fleet Optimisation Solution cross-references updated weather grids, charter-party time bars, and berth availability to suggest least-cost speed schedules that still hit arrival windows, earning class-verified carbon credits for compliant owners. Edge-AI then modulates trim tabs and variable-pitch propellers in seconds, a response rate that no human crew can sustain over multi-week passages. This precise load control extends the sweet spot of dual-fuel ammonia or methanol engines, accelerating the earning curve for alternative propulsion combinations that support the IMO 2050 net-zero trajectory. Reduced bunker consumption also lowers cargo owners' Scope 3 footprints, strengthening charter demand for fleets that verify emissions with tamper-proof sensor logs. Finally, optimized engine loading reduces maintenance intervals, providing operators with an additional margin of error during volatile freight cycles.

Cyber-Security Vulnerabilities of Remote Navigation Stacks

Spoofed GPS signals in the Black Sea during 2024 pushed autonomous trial craft up to 30 nm off course. They forced emergency manual overrides, showing how easily attackers can exploit over-the-air navigation dependencies. Because shore control relies on always-on IP tunnels, a single compromised operations center could, in theory, redirect multiple vessels or freeze helm commands. NIST's 2025 maritime cyber framework mandates encrypted satellite channels, multi-factor login tokens, and continual sensor-baseline checks that flag position reports deviating from inertial navigation dead-reckoning. Operators are now installing isolated safety controllers that execute hard-wired collision-avoidance maneuvers in the event of latency spikes or checksum failures, providing last-resort resilience comparable to that used in aircraft flight-control systems. Insurers reward fleets that can demonstrate such layered defenses with premium discounts, thereby pushing cyber hardening from an optional to a commercial imperative.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Rising Demand for Advanced Situational-Awareness Suites
2. Development of Next-Generation Autonomous Vessels
3. Regulatory Fragmentation and Flag-State Variance

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Partially autonomous vessels commanded 71.24% of the autonomous ships market size in 2025, underscoring owner preference for systems that deliver immediate crew-cost and fuel-burn savings, while still leaving a licensed mariner in charge when rules become ambiguous or traffic density spikes. These bridge-assist packages automate collision-avoidance inputs, dynamic power management, and voyage optimization while preserving manual control for berthing, pilotage, and emergency maneuvers, which keeps flag-state inspectors comfortable and insurers willing to underwrite at conventional deductibles. Fully autonomous hulls remain a niche market, but their 17.54% CAGR through 2031 signals a shift once statistical safety evidence accumulates and standardized class notations reduce regulatory uncertainty. Remotely controlled craft sit between the two, allowing shore teams to assume command whenever the onboard AI flags an anomaly. However, cognitive-load research caps each operator at roughly six simultaneous vessels, meaning fleetwide scaling hinges on usable human-machine interfaces. DNV's 2025 tiered notation, which maps cleanly onto the IMO taxonomy, now supplies banks and leasing houses with a risk ladder they can price against, lowering interest spreads for higher-tier approvals.

Edge-AI leaps make that risk ladder easier to climb. Jetson Orin boards, capable of 30 frames per second object classification, enable the fusion of radar and LiDAR detections onboard, preventing latency spikes from compromising safety margins and reducing dependence on always-available backhaul links. Once regulators are ready, a software switch can remove the final human from the loop, squeezing out overtime and travel-rotation costs that still weigh on the partially autonomous operating model. Lloyd's Market Association, however, insists on at least 10 million logged autonomous operating hours in mixed sea states before premiums fall to parity with conventional hulls, a threshold forecast around 2030 if fleet trials continue at the present clip.

Hardware captured 64.41% of the autonomous ships market share in 2025, as every retrofit begins with a tangible kit, including LiDAR domes, solid-state X-band radar, inertial measurement units, and dual satellite antennas, which expand a vessel's situational awareness envelope to meet class expectations. Revenue momentum now tilts toward code. Software is projected to grow at a 13.65% CAGR through 2031 as owners license digital-twin models, predictive-maintenance dashboards, and cyber-threat analytics that monetize the data from installed sensors without requiring dry-dock downtime. Rolls-Royce Intelligent Awareness already fuses radar, AIS, and video into a single view, slashing nuisance collision alarms by 60% and easing bridge fatigue. Wartsila's paired digital twin and telemetry suite reduced fuel consumption by 8% in 2025 container trials by recommending hour-by-hour speed and trim adjustments that crews rarely have the capacity to calculate.

Falling component costs reinforce the pivot. Velodyne's slide to USD 8,000 for solid-state LiDAR units in 2025, down from USD 18,000 a year earlier, opens redundant-sensor configurations to medium-tonnage owners who once balked at price tags reserved for LNG carriers. Meanwhile, AIS-spoofing incidents have made anomaly-detection modules from Thales and Raytheon part of fundamental due diligence checklists for hull insurers, ensuring steady pull-through of new subscription licenses each renewal season. The flywheel turns: more data improves software efficacy, which validates smaller sensor footprints, in turn accelerating the software's share of the autonomous ships market.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Autonomy Level
  • Partially Autonomous
  • Remotely Controlled
  • Fully Autonomous
• By Component
  • Hardware
  • Software
• By Ship Type
  • Cargo
  • Passenger
  • Offshore Support and Energy
  • Defense
  • Special Purpose
• By End User
  • Commercial
  • Government and Military
• By Propulsion
  • Fully Electric
  • Hybrid
  • Conventional
• By Geography
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Rest of South America
  • Europe
    • United Kingdom
    • Germany
    • France
    • Italy
    • Russia
    • Rest of Europe
  • Middle East and Africa
    • Middle East
      • Saudi Arabia
      • United Arab Emirates
      • Rest of Middle East
    • Africa
      • South Africa
      • Rest of Africa
  • Asia-Pacific
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • Australia
    • Rest of Asia-Pacific

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific held 41.35% of the autonomous ships market share in 2025, anchored by China's intelligent-ship stimulus packages, Japan's coastal-ferry consortia, and South Korea's yard-level autonomy options baked into export contracts. Regional builders deliver nine out of every ten deep-sea vessels worldwide, so embedding sensor trunks and AI racks during block assembly helps keep incremental costs low. Ministries top up demand with subsidies and green-shipping tax breaks, pushing small regional lines to trial autonomy that would be uneconomic elsewhere. China's provincial ports also carve dedicated test lanes, shortening approval lead times compared with slower flag states.

The Middle East and Africa are expected to experience the fastest growth, clocking a 13.60% CAGR through 2031. Saudi Arabia's NEOM aims for an emissions-free logistics spine and has earmarked USD 500 million for electric, autonomous harbor craft, as well as shore-power microgrids. Meanwhile, DP World's automation pilot at Jebel Ali has reduced berth-to-gate cycle times by 18%, convincing regional carriers to budget for similar kits. South Africa's Transnet is upgrading six harbor tugs to enable night-shift autonomy, allowing experienced crews to focus on heavy-weather salvage.

North America and Europe advance at stable mid-single-digit rates as regulators move from sandbox to permanent codes. US Coast Guard rules that demand redundant sensor types now guide shipyard specification lists, and Norway's twelve fjord trial zones give builders real-world data for actuarial tables. South America stays nascent; Petrobras' 2025 offshore-support drone trial highlights the value case, but suppliers still face import tariffs and inconsistent bandwidth on Amazon and South Atlantic routes.

1. ABB Ltd.
2. BAE Systems plc
3. DNV AS
4. Fugro NV
5. Hanwha Corporation
6. HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co.Ltd.
7. Kongsberg Gruppen ASA
8. L3Harris Technologies, Inc.
9. Marine AI Ltd.
10. MITSUI E&S Group
11. Praxis Automation Technology B.V.
12. Rolls-Royce plc
13. Sea Machines Robotics, Inc.
14. Samsung Heavy Industries Co.,Ltd
15. Wartsila Corporation
16. Vigor Industrial LLC

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

• 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4 MARKET LANDSCAPE

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Data-driven fleet optimization and remote operations
  • 4.2.2 Decarbonization and fuel efficiency mandates
  • 4.2.3 Rising demand for advanced situational-awareness suites
  • 4.2.4 Development of next-generation autonomous vessels
  • 4.2.5 Defense demand for USVs
  • 4.2.6 Edge-AI and 5G/LEO connectivity breakthrough
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 Cybersecurity vulnerabilities
  • 4.3.2 Regulatory fragmentation and flag-state variance
  • 4.3.3 High retrofit capital expenditure
  • 4.3.4 Marine-insurance and liability uncertainties
• 4.4 Value Chain Analysis
• 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
• 4.6 Technological Outlook
• 4.7 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • 4.7.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers/Consumers
  • 4.7.3 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitute Products
  • 4.7.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH FORECASTS (VALUE)

• 5.1 By Autonomy Level
  • 5.1.1 Partially Autonomous
  • 5.1.2 Remotely Controlled
  • 5.1.3 Fully Autonomous
• 5.2 By Component
  • 5.2.1 Hardware
  • 5.2.2 Software
• 5.3 By Ship Type
  • 5.3.1 Cargo
  • 5.3.2 Passenger
  • 5.3.3 Offshore Support and Energy
  • 5.3.4 Defense
  • 5.3.5 Special Purpose
• 5.4 By End User
  • 5.4.1 Commercial
  • 5.4.2 Government and Military
• 5.5 By Propulsion
  • 5.5.1 Fully Electric
  • 5.5.2 Hybrid
  • 5.5.3 Conventional
• 5.6 By Geography
  • 5.6.1 North America
    • 5.6.1.1 United States
    • 5.6.1.2 Canada
  • 5.6.2 South America
    • 5.6.2.1 Brazil
    • 5.6.2.2 Rest of South America
  • 5.6.3 Europe
    • 5.6.3.1 United Kingdom
    • 5.6.3.2 Germany
    • 5.6.3.3 France
    • 5.6.3.4 Italy
    • 5.6.3.5 Russia
    • 5.6.3.6 Rest of Europe
  • 5.6.4 Middle East and Africa
    • 5.6.4.1 Middle East
      • 5.6.4.1.1 Saudi Arabia
      • 5.6.4.1.2 United Arab Emirates
      • 5.6.4.1.3 Rest of Middle East
    • 5.6.4.2 Africa
      • 5.6.4.2.1 South Africa
      • 5.6.4.2.2 Rest of Africa
  • 5.6.5 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.6.5.1 China
    • 5.6.5.2 India
    • 5.6.5.3 Japan
    • 5.6.5.4 South Korea
    • 5.6.5.5 Australia
    • 5.6.5.6 Rest of Asia-Pacific

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves
• 6.3 Market Share Analysis
• 6.4 Company Profiles {(includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for key companies, Products and Services, and Recent Developments)}
  • 6.4.1 ABB Ltd.
  • 6.4.2 BAE Systems plc
  • 6.4.3 DNV AS
  • 6.4.4 Fugro NV
  • 6.4.5 Hanwha Corporation
  • 6.4.6 HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co.Ltd.
  • 6.4.7 Kongsberg Gruppen ASA
  • 6.4.8 L3Harris Technologies, Inc.
  • 6.4.9 Marine AI Ltd.
  • 6.4.10 MITSUI E&S Group
  • 6.4.11 Praxis Automation Technology B.V.
  • 6.4.12 Rolls-Royce plc
  • 6.4.13 Sea Machines Robotics, Inc.
  • 6.4.14 Samsung Heavy Industries Co.,Ltd
  • 6.4.15 Wartsila Corporation
  • 6.4.16 Vigor Industrial LLC

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK

• 7.1 White-space and Unmet-Need Assessment