첨단 바이오연료 : 시장 점유율 분석, 업계 동향 및 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the advanced biofuel market size was valued at USD 18.44 billion in 2025 and estimated to grow from USD 20.07 billion in 2026 to reach USD 30.66 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 8.84% during the forecast period (2026-2031).

This report is Segmented by Raw Material (Lignocellulosic Residues, Energy Crops, Algae, and More), Biofuel Type (Renewable Diesel, Biogas/Biomethane, and More), Technology (Biochemical Conversion, Thermochemical Conversion, and Hybrid and Emerging Pathways), End-Use (Road Transport Fuel, Aviation Fuel, Marine Fuel, and Industrial Heat and Power), and Geography (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and More).

Global Advanced Biofuel Market Trends and Insights

Tightening Global Blending Mandates

National and supranational legislation is shifting from voluntary schemes to binding quotas that hard-wire demand visibility for producers. The United Kingdom's sustainable aviation-fuel obligation rises from 2% in 2025 to 22% by 2040, supported by a revenue-certainty mechanism that could add GBP 5 billion to the economy and sustain up to 15,000 jobs. Brazil's planned E30 gasoline blend is projected to cut greenhouse-gas emissions by 1.7 million t per year while mobilising BRL 9 billion in inbound investment. Canada's Clean Fuel Regulation and the EU's ReFuelEU Aviation rule likewise embed long-range offtake certainty, enabling long tenor project financing. These mandates allow capital-intensive refineries to lock in throughput volumes, lowering risk premiums and accelerating scale-up across the advanced biofuel market.

Surging Sustainable Aviation-Fuel Demand

Airline net-zero pledges translate into direct offtake agreements that bypass traditional jet-fuel distributors. DHL Express procured 7,400 t of SAF from Neste for Singapore's Changi Airport, while Cathay Pacific is co-developing four power-to-liquids plants in China capable of 50,000-100,000 t per year each. United States SAF production doubled between December 2024 and February 2025 to about 30,000 bpd, yet still covers less than 2% of national jet-fuel demand, underscoring a sizeable supply gap. Aviation stakeholders are therefore accelerating long-term contracts that underwrite capacity expansions and technology diversification, lifting the advanced biofuel market well beyond conventional road-fuel confines.

Feedstock-Price Volatility vs. Food Crops

Feedstock accounts for 60%-80% of operating expenditure, so price swings in used cooking, soybean, or corn stover can erode margins and discourage new builds. Rising demand from HVO producers and food processors pushes edible oil prices higher, sparking food security debates in developing economies. Producers diversify toward agricultural residues, municipal solid waste, and algae to buffer against commodity cycles. Algal cultivation still ranges between USD 0.43 and USD 8.75 per l, with contamination and nutrient management risks inflating costs. The resulting volatility obliges investors to demand larger contingency budgets, tempering near-term growth in the advanced biofuel market.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Corporate Net-Zero Procurement Targets
2. Carbon-Negative BECCS Pathways Emerge
3. High Capex for Cellulosic Biorefineries

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Lignocellulosic residues provided 28.62% of the advanced biofuel market share in 2025 by exploiting plentiful crop waste, sawdust, and forestry slash with minimal land-use penalty. Energy-crop acreage is expanding in lower-yield farmland where miscanthus and switchgrass offer reliable biomass tonnage and soil-health benefits. Collection networks for used cooking oil and other fats, oils, and grease tapped into restaurant chains and municipal recycling programs, but demand is now outstripping supply, driving price premiums. Therefore, the advanced biofuel market is broadening its raw-material base to municipal solid waste streams; Enerkem's Edmonton facility illustrates how zero-landfill rules can provide steady feedstock volumes. Synthetic-biology breakthroughs have pushed microalgae productivity beyond 60 g per m2 per day in closed raceways, compressing production costs and fuelling a 14.92% CAGR for algae between 2026 and 2031. Producers are layering smart harvesting, flocculation, and downstream lipid extraction to achieve yields that rival terrestrial oilseeds without competing for arable land.

Feedstock strategy is increasingly multipronged: refineries blend agricultural residues for base-load supply, add waste lipids for high-value HVO batches, and trial algae or municipal waste to secure future scalability. This hedge lowers exposure to commodity cycles and enhances eligibility for policy incentives favoring non-food inputs. As corporate buyers request life-cycle assessments with rigorous traceability, residue-based pathways strengthen their status inside the advanced biofuel market.

Renewable diesel captured 45.38% revenue in 2025 thanks to drop-in compatibility with existing engines and logistics networks, allowing fleets to decarbonise without asset swaps. HEFA plants operated at high utilisation because readily available used cooking oil and tallow shorten commissioning lead time. Biogas and biomethane ride a 12.11% CAGR as anaerobic-digestion clusters spring up near landfills and large dairy operations under zero-methane-emission rules. Cellulosic ethanol remains restrained by enzyme costs, although continuous fermentation and consolidated bioprocessing are closing the cost gap. Despite its superior energy density and octane performance, biobutanol is held to niche aviation blends until capital costs fall.

Market demand aligns each fuel with end-use niches: HVO for heavy-duty transport and winter climates, SAF blends for long-haul aviation, and pipeline-quality biomethane for industrial heat. Producers that can flex between outputs are better positioned to capture value when regulation or feedstock shifts. Such optionality reinforces vertical-integration moves by oil majors, thereby deepening competitive barriers inside the advanced biofuel market.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Raw Material
  • Lignocellulosic Residues
  • Energy Crops (e.g., Miscanthus)
  • Used Cooking Oil and FOG
  • Algae
  • Municipal Solid Waste
• By Biofuel Type
  • Cellulosic Ethanol
  • Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA)
  • Renewable Diesel (HVO)
  • Biogas/Biomethane
  • Biobutanol
• By Technology
  • Biochemical Conversion
  • Thermochemical Conversion
  • Hybrid & Emerging Pathways
• By End-Use Sector
  • Road Transport Fuel
  • Aviation Fuel (SAF)
  • Marine Fuel
  • Industrial Heat and Power
• By Geography
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Mexico
  • Europe
    • Germany
    • United Kingdom
    • France
    • Italy
    • NORDIC Countries
    • Russia
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia-Pacific
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • ASEAN Countries
    • Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Rest of South America
  • Middle East and Africa
    • Saudi Arabia
    • United Arab Emirates
    • South Africa
    • Egypt
    • Rest of Middle East and Africa

Geography Analysis

North America delivered 38.42% of 2025 revenue after decades of policy support that created a mature credit market for low-carbon fuelsRenewable diesel capacity in the United States climbed 44% in 2023, lifting total national biofuel output to 24 billion gal per year and stimulating fresh feedstock collection hubs in the Midwest. Canada's Clean Fuel Regulation layers a federal carbon-price signal onto provincial mandates, ensuring demand certainty even as cross-border trade arbitration with the United States persists.

Asia-Pacific is on track for a 12.23% CAGR through 2031 as China, India, and ASEAN members tighten import dependency and build domestic supply lines. India's "Biofuel Scheme-2025" offers land-use concessions and tax breaks for Bio-CNG and ethanol projects, and Bihar alone targets nine ethanol plants by 2026 that will employ 50,000 people. China's civil-aviation regulator cleared the first commercial SAF flight in 2024, and regional airlines are now entering offtake contracts to secure supply ahead of anticipated quotas. Australia's lagging policy environment delayed BP's Kwinana upgrade, emphasising the decisive role of regulation in securing investment across the advanced biofuel market.

Europe sustains steady growth under the Renewable Energy Directive but faces indirect land-use-change policy uncertainty that lengthens permitting cycles. Germany and France upgraded biodiesel reactors to process waste lipids, while Nordic governments embed long-term purchase commitments to shield producers from spot-price swings. The ReFuelEU Aviation mandate and national carbon taxes are expected to pull SAF demand past 5 million t by 2030. Complex life-cycle accounting rules elevate compliance costs and create a premium niche for producers with robust traceability frameworks.

1. Neste Oyj
2. Chevron (Renewable Energy Group)
3. TotalEnergies (SAFE)
4. Gevo Inc.
5. POET LLC
6. Aemetis Inc.
7. Verbio AG
8. UPM Biofuels
9. LanzaJet Inc.
10. Fulcrum BioEnergy
11. Shell plc (Biofuels)
12. BP (bp Bunge Bioenergia)
13. Clariant AG
14. Abengoa Bioenergy
15. Green Plains Inc.
16. Sekab Biofuels & Chemicals
17. Enerkem Inc.
18. Algenol Biotech
19. GranBio
20. Sundrop Fuels Inc.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Tightening global blending mandates
  • 4.2.2 Surging sustainable aviation-fuel demand
  • 4.2.3 Corporate net-zero procurement targets
  • 4.2.4 Carbon-negative BECCS pathways emerge
  • 4.2.5 MSW-to-bio-crude backed by zero-landfill laws
  • 4.2.6 Synthetic-biology cost breakthroughs
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 Feedstock-price volatility vs. food crops
  • 4.3.2 High capex for cellulosic biorefineries
  • 4.3.3 Algal-culture scaling & contamination risks
  • 4.3.4 ILUC policy uncertainty in key regions
• 4.4 Supply-Chain Analysis
• 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
• 4.6 Key Existing & Upcoming Projects
• 4.7 Technological Outlook
• 4.8 Porter's Five Forces
  • 4.8.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.8.2 Bargaining Power of Consumers
  • 4.8.3 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.8.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.8.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts

• 5.1 By Raw Material
  • 5.1.1 Lignocellulosic Residues
  • 5.1.2 Energy Crops (e.g., Miscanthus)
  • 5.1.3 Used Cooking Oil and FOG
  • 5.1.4 Algae
  • 5.1.5 Municipal Solid Waste
• 5.2 By Biofuel Type
  • 5.2.1 Cellulosic Ethanol
  • 5.2.2 Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA)
  • 5.2.3 Renewable Diesel (HVO)
  • 5.2.4 Biogas/Biomethane
  • 5.2.5 Biobutanol
• 5.3 By Technology
  • 5.3.1 Biochemical Conversion
  • 5.3.2 Thermochemical Conversion
  • 5.3.3 Hybrid & Emerging Pathways
• 5.4 By End-Use Sector
  • 5.4.1 Road Transport Fuel
  • 5.4.2 Aviation Fuel (SAF)
  • 5.4.3 Marine Fuel
  • 5.4.4 Industrial Heat and Power
• 5.5 By Geography
  • 5.5.1 North America
    • 5.5.1.1 United States
    • 5.5.1.2 Canada
    • 5.5.1.3 Mexico
  • 5.5.2 Europe
    • 5.5.2.1 Germany
    • 5.5.2.2 United Kingdom
    • 5.5.2.3 France
    • 5.5.2.4 Italy
    • 5.5.2.5 NORDIC Countries
    • 5.5.2.6 Russia
    • 5.5.2.7 Rest of Europe
  • 5.5.3 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.5.3.1 China
    • 5.5.3.2 India
    • 5.5.3.3 Japan
    • 5.5.3.4 South Korea
    • 5.5.3.5 ASEAN Countries
    • 5.5.3.6 Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • 5.5.4 South America
    • 5.5.4.1 Brazil
    • 5.5.4.2 Argentina
    • 5.5.4.3 Rest of South America
  • 5.5.5 Middle East and Africa
    • 5.5.5.1 Saudi Arabia
    • 5.5.5.2 United Arab Emirates
    • 5.5.5.3 South Africa
    • 5.5.5.4 Egypt
    • 5.5.5.5 Rest of Middle East and Africa

6 Competitive Landscape

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves (M&A, Partnerships, PPAs)
• 6.3 Market Share Analysis (Market Rank/Share for key companies)
• 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 Neste Oyj
  • 6.4.2 Chevron (Renewable Energy Group)
  • 6.4.3 TotalEnergies (SAFE)
  • 6.4.4 Gevo Inc.
  • 6.4.5 POET LLC
  • 6.4.6 Aemetis Inc.
  • 6.4.7 Verbio AG
  • 6.4.8 UPM Biofuels
  • 6.4.9 LanzaJet Inc.
  • 6.4.10 Fulcrum BioEnergy
  • 6.4.11 Shell plc (Biofuels)
  • 6.4.12 BP (bp Bunge Bioenergia)
  • 6.4.13 Clariant AG
  • 6.4.14 Abengoa Bioenergy
  • 6.4.15 Green Plains Inc.
  • 6.4.16 Sekab Biofuels & Chemicals
  • 6.4.17 Enerkem Inc.
  • 6.4.18 Algenol Biotech
  • 6.4.19 GranBio
  • 6.4.20 Sundrop Fuels Inc.

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook

• 7.1 White-space & Unmet-need Assessment