승용차용 모터 오일 : 시장 점유율 분석, 업계 동향과 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the passenger car motor oil market size is expected to increase from 8.91 billion liters in 2025 to 8.98 billion liters in 2026 and reach 9.35 billion liters by 2031, at a CAGR of 0.81% during the forecast period (2026-2031).

Global Passenger Car Motor Oil Market Trends and Insights

Expansion of the Passenger Vehicle Parc in Emerging Economies

Rapid motorization in South and Southeast Asia is adding vehicles that will require regular oil changes for many years. India recorded passenger vehicle sales of 4.64 million units in FY2025-26, an increase of 7.9% from the previous year. Utility vehicles represented 68% of India's passenger vehicle sales, while SUVs grew 20.1% during Q4 FY2026. Newer Indian vehicles are moving toward multigrade synthetic products under Bharat Stage VI (BS-VI) requirements, which raises lifetime value per liter. China's passenger car stock exceeded 246 million vehicles, and the rollout of China VI-b supported demand for low-SAPS (Sulfated Ash, Phosphorus, and Sulfur) 0W-20 and 5W-30 products. Passenger vehicle growth and tighter specifications are creating demand for both more lubricant users and higher-grade formulations in the Passenger Car Motor Oil Market.

Premium Synthetic and Low-Viscosity Oil Adoption

The transition from 5W-XX products to 0W-XX grades is changing the value mix in the Passenger Car Motor Oil Market. The International Lubricant Standardization and Approval Committee (ILSAC) GF-7 was licensed on March 31, 2025, identifying 0W-20, 0W-16, and 5W-20 as key grades for current performance requirements. These grades support fuel economy, protection against Low Speed Pre-Ignition (LSPI), and timing-chain wear in modern engines. Volkswagen moved its TSI engine family to 0W-20 service fills in 2025, increasing workshop demand for oils that meet European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) C5 or C6 specifications. Such products carry a 20-30% price premium over 5W-30 and 10W-40 products. Manufacturers are directing investment toward Group III, Group IV, and Group V base stocks required for low-viscosity formulations.

Battery Electric Vehicle Penetration

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) reduce the need for engine oil, though this effect emerges gradually as the installed vehicle base changes. Global electric car sales exceeded 20 million units in 2025, representing 25% of new car sales worldwide. These sales displaced an estimated 1.2 million barrels of oil per day. China accounted for nearly 55% of new electric car sales, while Europe accounted for 28%. Hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles still require lubricants, which moderates the near-term decline in demand.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Growth of Organized Aftermarket and Quick-Lube Networks
2. Increasing Hybrid Vehicle Lubricant Requirements
3. Extended Manufacturer-Recommended Drain Intervals

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Synthetic oils held 43.13% of the Passenger Car Motor Oil Market share in 2025. The International Lubricant Standardization and Approval Committee (ILSAC) GF-7 and the Association des Constructeurs Europeens d'Automobiles (ACEA) C5/C6 requirements have strengthened their role in new-vehicle factory fill and approved aftermarket applications. Synthetic formulations serve turbocharged, gasoline direct injection, and hybrid powertrains with demanding performance requirements. Their established position gives suppliers with technical approvals an advantage. Semi-synthetic oils are forecast to grow at a 1.32% CAGR through 2031, offering service centers a practical path to upgrade customers from mineral oils without requiring the full-synthetic price point.

Mineral oils remain relevant in developing-market aftermarket channels with older vehicle fleets. These vehicles often have less demanding specifications, and workshops continue to prioritize lower initial product costs. Bio-based oils remain a smaller emerging category in the Passenger Car Motor Oil Market. TotalEnergies launched an engine oil made from 100% regenerated base oils that received manufacturer approval and was co-branded with Stellantis in 2024. Group III supply constraints in 2026 added cost pressure to blends used in semi-synthetic and many full-synthetic products. The resulting cost difference from Group I mineral oils increases formulation differentiation and reinforces the need for additive chemistry and OEM approvals.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Base-Stock Type
  • Mineral
  • Synthetic
  • Semi-Synthetic
  • Bio-Based
• By Grade
  • 0W-XX
  • 5W-XX
  • 10W-XX
  • 15W-XX
  • Monogrades
  • Other Grades
• By Geography
  • Asia-Pacific
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • ASEAN Countries
    • Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Mexico
  • Europe
    • Germany
    • United Kingdom
    • France
    • Italy
    • NORDIC Countries
    • Rest of Europe
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Rest of South America
  • Middle East and Africa
    • Saudi Arabia
    • South Africa
    • Rest of Middle East and Africa

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific held 45.65% of the Passenger Car Motor Oil market share in 2025 and is forecast to grow at a 1.27% CAGR through 2031. China's VI-b standards require low-SAPS, low-viscosity synthetic formulations across a passenger car base exceeding 246 million vehicles. India recorded 396,269 passenger vehicle registrations in August 2026, a 16% year-over-year increase. CRISIL expects India's annual passenger vehicle sales to reach 5.9 million in FY2027. Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam have large vehicle fleets that still use semi-synthetic and mineral grades. Regional emissions alignment and India's BIS requirements are raising product specifications and average quality.

North America has a high penetration of synthetic lubricants by volume. The region is experiencing lower lubricant sales volumes as electric vehicle adoption and longer drain intervals reduce demand for oil changes. ILSAC GF-7 products continue to account for aftermarket demand, as newer engines require approved low-viscosity oils. Mexico remains an important market for factory-fill volumes of Dexos1- and Motorcraft-approved products. Chinese suppliers are also targeting Mexico as Chinese automakers expand across Latin America.

Europe supports lubricant demand despite lower output volumes. Volkswagen transitioned its TSI engine family to 0W-20 factory-fill lubricants in 2025. In February 2026, Castrol launched EDGE Euro 0W-20 M, with approvals from BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, and Volkswagen/Audi. Brazil benefits from fleet expansion and increased participation in the formal aftermarket, while Argentina's economic conditions constrain discretionary maintenance spending. In the Middle East and Africa, counterfeit products remain an ongoing concern. Saudi Arabia's fleet modernization programs are expected to support demand for synthetic-grade products as newer vehicles enter service.

1. BP p.l.c.
2. Chevron Corporation
3. ENEOS Corporation
4. Exxon Mobil Corporation
5. FUCHS
6. Gulf Oil International Ltd
7. Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd.
8. Indian Oil Corporation Limited
9. LIQUI MOLY GmbH
10. Motul S.A.
11. PETRONAS Lubricants International
12. Shell plc
13. Sinopec Lubricant Company
14. TotalEnergies
15. Valvoline Global Operations

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Expansion of the Passenger Vehicle Parc in Emerging Economies
  • 4.2.2 Premium Synthetic and Low-Viscosity Oil Adoption
  • 4.2.3 Growth of Organized Aftermarket and Quick-Lube Networks
  • 4.2.4 Increasing Hybrid Vehicle Lubricant Requirements
  • 4.2.5 VIN-Linked Digital Fitment and Misfill Reduction
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 Battery Electric Vehicle Penetration
  • 4.3.2 Extended Manufacturer-Recommended Drain Intervals
  • 4.3.3 Counterfeit Lubricants and Product-Authentication Costs
• 4.4 Value Chain Analysis
• 4.5 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • 4.5.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.5.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.5.3 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.5.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.5.5 Rivalry Among Existing Competitors

5 Market Size and Growth Forecasts (Volume)

• 5.1 By Base-Stock Type
  • 5.1.1 Mineral
  • 5.1.2 Synthetic
  • 5.1.3 Semi-Synthetic
  • 5.1.4 Bio-Based
• 5.2 By Grade
  • 5.2.1 0W-XX
  • 5.2.2 5W-XX
  • 5.2.3 10W-XX
  • 5.2.4 15W-XX
  • 5.2.5 Monogrades
  • 5.2.6 Other Grades
• 5.3 By Geography
  • 5.3.1 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.3.1.1 China
    • 5.3.1.2 India
    • 5.3.1.3 Japan
    • 5.3.1.4 South Korea
    • 5.3.1.5 ASEAN Countries
    • 5.3.1.6 Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • 5.3.2 North America
    • 5.3.2.1 United States
    • 5.3.2.2 Canada
    • 5.3.2.3 Mexico
  • 5.3.3 Europe
    • 5.3.3.1 Germany
    • 5.3.3.2 United Kingdom
    • 5.3.3.3 France
    • 5.3.3.4 Italy
    • 5.3.3.5 NORDIC Countries
    • 5.3.3.6 Rest of Europe
  • 5.3.4 South America
    • 5.3.4.1 Brazil
    • 5.3.4.2 Argentina
    • 5.3.4.3 Rest of South America
  • 5.3.5 Middle East and Africa
    • 5.3.5.1 Saudi Arabia
    • 5.3.5.2 South Africa
    • 5.3.5.3 Rest of Middle East and Africa

6 Competitive Landscape

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves
• 6.3 Market Share (%)/Ranking Analysis
• 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global Overview, Market Overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Products and Services, and Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 BP p.l.c.
  • 6.4.2 Chevron Corporation
  • 6.4.3 ENEOS Corporation
  • 6.4.4 Exxon Mobil Corporation
  • 6.4.5 FUCHS
  • 6.4.6 Gulf Oil International Ltd
  • 6.4.7 Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd.
  • 6.4.8 Indian Oil Corporation Limited
  • 6.4.9 LIQUI MOLY GmbH
  • 6.4.10 Motul S.A.
  • 6.4.11 PETRONAS Lubricants International
  • 6.4.12 Shell plc
  • 6.4.13 Sinopec Lubricant Company
  • 6.4.14 TotalEnergies
  • 6.4.15 Valvoline Global Operations

7 Market Opportunities and Future Outlook

• 7.1 White-Space and Unmet-Need Assessment