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Capex Forecast Check, 3Q23 - Webscale & CNNO: Preliminary Results for 3Q23: Full-year Capex Likely to be 5-10% Lower than 7/23 Forecast, but Tech Portion of Spend is Trending Upwards

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  • Alphabet
  • Amazon
  • American Tower
  • Apple
  • BAM Digital Realty
  • Blackstone
  • Brookfield
  • China Tower
  • Compass Data Centers
  • CoreSite Realty
  • Crown Castle
  • Cyxtera
  • Data4
  • DCI
  • Digital Realty
  • DigitalBridge
  • Equinix
  • Indus Towers(aka Bharti Infratel)
  • Level 3
  • Meta(FB)
  • Microsoft
  • QTS Realty
  • SBA Communications
  • Switch
  • Vianet

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LSH 23.11.24

This short note provides an early review of 3Q23 market growth and capex spending figures for two of the three operator segments we cover: webscale, and carrier-neutral. (Our third segment, telco, will be addressed in a few weeks as more earnings reports are available.) The analysis is based on a review of over 80% of reporting companies in the two segments. Our official forecast for 2023 calls for $218B of capex for webscalers, and $39B for carrier-neutral operators (CNNOs). Market figures through 3Q23 suggest actual capex is likely to be closer to $200B and $36B for the two segments, respectively. This is a small change, however, and the tech portion of webscale capex is rising modestly. Moreover, new data from DigitalBridge makes clear that private equity-funded spend is strong in the data center CNNO market, helping to offset a weaker public CNNO market. Consequently, the vendor opportunity in selling to these two markets in 2023 is roughly the same size as forecast.

VISUALS

Organizations mentioned:

  • Alphabet
  • Amazon
  • American Tower
  • Apple
  • BAM Digital Realty
  • Blackstone
  • Brookfield
  • China Tower
  • Compass Data Centers
  • CoreSite Realty
  • Crown Castle
  • Cyxtera
  • Data4
  • DCI
  • Digital Realty
  • DigitalBridge
  • Equinix
  • Indus Towers (aka Bharti Infratel)
  • Level 3
  • Meta (FB)
  • Microsoft
  • QTS Realty
  • SBA Communications
  • Switch
  • Vianet

Table of Contents

Summary

Introduction

Analysis

  • Webscale
  • Carrier-neutral
  • Generative AI

Outlook

Appendix

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