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Renewable Natural Gas: Production Capacity and Equipment Sales Revenue Forecasts for the Global Biomethane Market, 2024-2033

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JHS 24.08.14

Renewable natural gas (RNG), also known as biomethane, offers an immediate decarbonization solution to a wide range of industries. RNG is produced by removing the impurities from biogas, which is released during the decomposition of organic matter such as animal or food waste. Once the biogas is upgraded to make a stream of pipeline quality methane, it becomes RNG, which is completely interchangeable with conventional fossil natural gas. As a drop-in fuel, RNG is compatible with existing gas infrastructure, including pipelines, storage caverns, gas turbines, and home appliances. Renewable gas is especially well suited for hard-to-abate sectors, where few other decarbonization options exist.

While many developing countries will continue to use biogas for cooking and heating, Europe and North America were early movers on crafting legislation to help incentivize the use of renewable fuels such as RNG. Market demand today largely reflects those policies. In addition to high production costs, the scalability of feedstocks is a primary concern about the development of the RNG market. Producers need a steady long-term supply of feedstock, which can be a challenge considering the cyclical nature of some agriculture activities. In addition, competition over feedstocks will increase as new demand and RNG suppliers emerge.

This Guidehouse Insights report provides forecasts for RNG production capacity additions and equipment sales revenues from 2024-2033. Forecasts are based on an analysis of planned RNG production capacity and primary research that includes phone and in-person interviews with industry leaders. Forecasts have been segmented by global region, production pathways, and end-use application.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1 Market Prelude

  • 1.2 Market Forecast

2. Market Issues

  • 2.1 Introduction
  • 2.2 Drivers
    • 2.2.1 Environmental Benefits
    • 2.2.2 Existing Infrastructure
    • 2.2.3 Multiple Applications
    • 2.2.4 Policy Support
  • 2.3 Barriers
    • 2.3.1 High Costs
    • 2.3.2 Feedstock Sourcing
    • 2.3.3 Siloed by Policy
    • 2.3.4 Vehicle Electrification
  • 2.4 Pricing
    • 2.4.1 Costs
    • 2.4.2 Market Value
  • 2.5 Other Business Issues
    • 2.5.1 Feedstocks
    • 2.5.2 Carbon Intensity

3. Industry Value Chain

  • 3.1 Value Chain
  • 3.2 Competitive Landscape
    • 3.2.1 M&A Activities
    • 3.2.2 Business Model Evolution
      • 3.2.2.1 Transportation
      • 3.2.2.2 Gas Grid Operators
      • 3.2.2.3 Commercial, Industrial, and Corporate Buying

4. Market Forecasts

  • 4.1 Methodology
  • 4.2 Global Market Overview
    • 4.2.1 RNG Production Equipment by Region
    • 4.2.2 RNG Production Equipment by Production Pathway
    • 4.2.3 RNG Production by End-Use Application
  • 4.3 North America
  • 4.4 Europe
  • 4.5 Asia Pacific
  • 4.6 Latin America
  • 4.7 Middle East & Africa

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

  • 5.1 Three Big Takeaways
  • 5.2 Recommendations
    • 5.2.1 Policymakers Should Offer Incentives for Using RNG Outside Transportation
    • 5.2.2 Feedstock Suppliers Must Recognize the Opportunity and Seize It
    • 5.2.3 Gas Utilities Should Embrace RNG as a Lifeline
    • 5.2.4 Large Gas Consumers Must Adopt RNG to Reach Decarbonization Goals

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List

7. Table of Contents

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

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