세계의 무선 인프라 시장(2025년 1분기)

This report analyzes the 1Q25 wireless infrastructure market worldwide and covers 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G radio access network (RAN) and core network nodes. It presents historical data from 2016 to 2024, quarterly market size and vendor market shares, and a detailed market forecast through 2030 for 2G/3G/4G/5G RAN, including Open vRAN, and core networks (EPC, vEPC, and 5GC), for each region (North America, Europe Middle East Africa, Asia Pacific, Caribbean Latin America). The historical data accounts for the sales of more than 30 wireless infrastructure vendors, including a few vendors that shared confidential sales data with TERAL RESEARCH. The market forecast is based on a model correlating wireless infrastructure vendor sales with 20 years of service provider network rollout pattern analysis, and upgrade and expansion plans.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

KEY TAKEAWAYS: AS ANTICIPATED, 1Q25 IS UP YOY AND PUTS THE MARKET BACK TO NORMAL

AS WE RIGHTLY PREDICTED, THE WIRELESS INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET IS COMING BACK

• LIKE IN THE PAST 2 QUARTERS, NORTH AMERICA CONTINUED TO DRIVE THE RECOVERY
• OPEN RAN AND 5G WERE THE BRIGHTEST SPOTS OF ALL CATEGORIES
• 5G IS AND WILL REMAIN THE BRIGHT SPOT
  • A faster migration to 5G SA is greatly desired
  • The potential for LTE-A and VoLTE upgrades remains phenomenal
• IN 1Q25, HUAWEI AND ERICSSON STAYED PUT, NOKIA LOST SHARE, ZTE AND SAMSUNG ROSE AND THE JAPANESE VENDORS CAME BACK
  • For 1Q25 RAN market share, huawei gained share and moved ahead of Ericsson
• IN CORE NETWORKS, HUAWEI AND ZTE COMBINED COMMAND A 60% MARKET SHARE, ERICSSON FELL TO #3, ZTE MOVED TO #1 FOR 5G CORE
  • The prolonged slow migration to 5G SA is over, a PICKUP started in 3Q24 and continued in 1Q25
  • We did such a good work in designing the EPC that the move to 5G core is hard to justify!

AS RIGHTLY PREDICTED, 2024 WAS THE THIRD YEAR OF THE DISINVESTMENT CYCLE, 2025 WILL BE UP

• LIKE 4G, 5G WILL HAVE A LONG TAIL...
• ...BUT UNLIKE PREVIOUS CYCLES, THERE IS NO NEW G TO CREATE A NEW INVESTMENT CYCLE
  • Although 5G remains the bright spot, it won't be big enough to offset the 4G decline
  • Factoring in the 4G decline, our model produced a lower base forecast
• 2025 IS LOOKING UP!
  • North America will experience the strongest growth this year
  • Post-5G peak, all other regions will see moderate growth or flatness

OUR LONG-TERM WIRELESS INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET FORECAST POINTS TO A SLIGHT DECLINING TREND

• Current conditions point to a slowly declining pattern through the end of the decade
• FURTHER EXACERBATED BY THE VIBRANT SECONDHAND MARKET FOR 4G AND 5G EQUIPMENT COMING FROM THE REMOVAL OF THE CHINESE VENDORS IN SPECIFIC COUNTRIES THAT SWAMPS OTHER MARKETS
  • With Germany gearing up to remove Huawei's 5G equipment, we expect another cycle of used kits to flood the secondhand market in 2025-2026
• AFTER THE PAUSE, OPEN RAN WILL START TO RAMP UP THIS YEAR
  • Geopolitics fueled both the open RAN ecosystem and traditional 5G RAN rollouts led by Ericsson, Nokia, and Samsung
• HOME TO THE WORLD'S LARGEST WIRELESS NETWORK FOOTPRINTS, ASIA PACIFIC WILL REMAIN THE LARGEST MARKET
• NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST MARKET
• AFTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, EMEA WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THROUGH 2030
• CALA IS BOUNCING BACK WITH POTENTIAL GROWTH AHEAD