RAN 자동화 : SON, AI, RIC 및 SMO-AI 기반 SON에서 비실시간 RIC 및 SMO로의 이동이 시작(2025년 10월)

Defined by the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) at the beginning of this century, SON (self-organizing network) algorithms configure and optimize mobile networks automatically without human interaction. As networks handle vast amounts of traffic and become more and more complex through the addition of several generations, SON algorithms are blended with machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms.

This report tracks the centralized SON (C-SON) software and services revenue market, provides size, forecast and vendor market shares, and analyzes the evolution of C-SON modules and use cases becoming apps in the RAN Intelligent Controller (RIC) needed in open RAN, open virtual RAN architectures, and expanding to support any types of RAN. This report also tracks the O-RAN defined service management and orchestration (SMO) market and provides a breakdown between non-Real Time RIC rApps and near-Real Time RIC xApps.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

KEY TAKEAWAYS

AS THE SHIFT TO NON-RT RIC AND SMO KICKS OFF, AI-POWERED SON SALES PEAKED IN 2024

• GLOBAL SON SOFTWARE AND SERVICES REVENUE PEAKED IN 2024 AND ACCOUNTED FOR 91% OF TOTAL RAN AUTOMATION SALES
  • Our estimates indicate Nokia continues to lead C-SON sales market shares
  • At this point, every C-SON vendor is juggling between servicing existing customers and migrating those customers ready to adopt non-RT RIC and SMO
  • We forecast the global C-SON market to start its decline in 2025
  • Global C-SON sales will follow a long tail pattern
  • C-SON sales have never grown proportionally to the number of mobile networks
  • Because with or without C-SON, LTE networks are running fine, so are 5G NSA ones
  • Since its debut in 2010, C-SON has always been a tough sell

WITH AT&T BACK IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT, THE NON-RT RIC, ITS RAPPS AND THE SMO ARE POISED FOR STRONG GROWTH

• SINCE 2017, AT&T HAS BEEN DRIVING THE ONAP AND OPEN RAN EFFORTS
• BUT NTT DOCOMO STOLE THE RIC SHOW IN 2023
• FUELED BY GEOPOLITICS, OPEN RAN ACCELERATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RIC AND THE SMO
  • In 2021, we developed a RIC and SMO forecast model based on the O-RAN Alliance framework
  • In August 2023, the O-RAN Alliance released a vision of the NIC, the evolution of the RIC
• AS A RESULT, THE SMO MARKET, INCLUDING NON-RT RIC AND RAPPS, PASSED THE $100M BAR IN 2024
  • Ericsson leads the Non-RT RIC and SMO market...
  • ...followed by Samsung
  • Propelled by Verizon, Qualcomm ranks third
  • As we predicted three years ago, RIC is deployed in any RAN
  • Like its C-SON predecessor, RIC uses AI and ML, and needs to send back instructions to the RAN
  • RIC market developments follow the same pattern as C-SON's
• OUR MODEL PRODUCED A 51% NON-RT RIC MARKET 5-YEAR CAGR
  • In 2028, we expect 88% of C-SON sales and services to be in the form of a non-RT RIC rApps
  • The xApp will have to wait because the training requires a vast amount of RAN scenarios that can be generated to reproduce real events
  • The Near-Real Time RIC market is unleashing D-SON use cases that until now were proprietary and controlled by the RAN vendors; they still are though!
  • CSPs have plenty of questions about the near-real time RIC
  • The App ecosystem is mushrooming
  • Network optimization rApps accounts for 67% of total
• ALL THIS DRIVES THE SMO MARKET FOR ANY RAN
  • The SMO market is poised for a rapid ramp up, and will be the largest opportunity as it gradually replaces the OSS
  • Asia Pacific will be the largest SMO market throughout the forecast period