세계 소형, 중형, 대형 상용차 시장 전망(2024년)

Strong Sales in China to Compensate for Decline in Truck Market in North America and Europe

Both China and Europe experienced significant growth in LCV and M&HD truck sales in 2023, mainly driven by a low base affect. Other emerging markets faced a challenging year, with India and ASEAN specifically contracting in LCV sales and with LATAM's M&HD truck sales declining substantially in 2023. After a difficult 2022, Chinese OEMs reemerged in 2023 with a boost in domestic sales and a growing footprint outside of China, especially in the LATAM and ASEAN markets, displacing incumbent European and Japanese OEMs. Chinese OEMs contributed to nearly one-third of global truck sales in 2023, a substantial increase from one-fourth of sales the previous year.

The growing proliferation of EV technology globally will drive the CV industry toward a higher level of modularity and platformization across vehicle segments, weight classes, and geographies, to offer common benefits and cut costs. Recent cutbacks in EV investments because of lower consumer interest and higher raw material prices can prove to be a boost to alternate ICE vehicles with lower price premiums that customers can more readily adopt in the short-to-medium term.

Economic growth in 2024 is expected to be slower than in 2023, with high interest rates and rising inflation continuing to be a challenge, certainly in the first half of the year. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, in addition to state elections in several countries, only add to the uncertainties and unpredictability of the year ahead. Advanced markets, such as North America and Europe, are expected to experience a significant decline in truck sales in 2024 because of excess capacity and an underwhelming freight situation. Emerging markets, such as ASEAN and LATAM, are expected to bounce back strongly on the back of stronger macros after a weak 2023.

Key Issues Addressed

• Trends impacting the global truck industry?
• The size of the global truck industry in 2023, the segment share, and leading original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in different regions?
• Expected volume growth in 2024 and drivers in different regions?
• Projected penetration of key powertrain technologies across different regions?
• Top OEM performers in 2023 and their future powertrain strategy in different regions?

Table of Contents

Transformation in Light, Medium, and Heavy Commercial Vehicles

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the LCV, MD, and HD Truck Industry

Growth Environment

• Key Findings-A Recap of 2023
• Key Findings-Top 5 Predictions for 2024
• Notable Regulations and Mandates-A Snapshot
• Major Trends in the LCV Market
• LCV Market
• Major Trends in the M&HD Truck Market
• M&HD Truck Market

Ecosystem

• Research Scope
• Market Segmentation

2023 Global Economic Outlook

• Top 10 Trends for 2024
• Top 10 Growth Opportunities
• Global GDP Growth-Mild Global Growth Slowdown from 3% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 as Key Markets Lose Growth Momentum
• Inflation and Interest Rates-Headline Inflation Continuing to Decline; H2 2024 Shifting toward Rate Cuts for Developed Markets
• Currency Trajectory-Dollar to Remain Strong in H1 2024; EM Currencies to Get a Boost from Q3 2024 Onwards
• Oil Markets-Q1 OPEC+ Oil Production Cuts; Non-OPEC Production to Rise
• Labor Market-Moderate Unemployment Uptick; Positive Expectations over Market Sentiment to Support Labor Hoarding
• Critical Minerals Supplies-Need for Economic Resiliency to Bolster Cross-border and Cross-industry Partnerships
• North America-Economic Slowdown amid Discretionary Spending Pullback and Elevated Interest Rates
• Western Europe-Moderate Growth Pickup as Inflation Headwinds Ease; Rebuilding Fiscal Buffers to Take Precedence
• The Middle East-Non-oil Growth from Economic Diversification Limiting the Pullback from a Slowdown in Global Oil Markets
• ASIA-EMs to Drive Growth Momentum; Fiscal Measures to Support Chinese Economic Recovery

Growth Generator-LCV Market Outlook

• Market Forecast
• Market Forecast by Region and Category
• LCV OEM Sales Performance
• Powertrain Technology Forecast
• Key OEMs' Anticipated eLCV Launches

Growth Generator-M&HD Truck Market Outlook

• Market Forecast
• Market Forecast by Region and Category
• M&HD Truck OEM Sales Performance
• Powertrain Technology Forecast
• Key OEMs' Anticipated eM&HD Truck Launches

Growth Generator-North America

• Market Since COVID-North America
• Market Outlook and Top Participants-North America
• Market Volume and Powertrain Split-North America
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms-North America

Growth Generator-Europe

• Market Since COVID-Europe
• Market Outlook and Top Participants-Europe
• Market Volume and Powertrain Split-Europe
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms-Europe

Growth Generator-China

• Market Since COVID-China
• Market Outlook and Top Participants-China
• Market Volume and Powertrain Split-China
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms-China

Growth Generator-India

• Market Since COVID-India
• Market Outlook and Top Participants-India
• Market Volume and Powertrain Split-India
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms-India

Growth Generator-LATAM

• Market Since COVID-LATAM
• Market Outlook and Top Participants-LATAM
• Market Volume and Powertrain Split-LATAM
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms-LATAM

Growth Generator-ASEAN

• Market Since COVID-ASEAN
• Market Outlook and Top Participants-ASEAN
• Market Volume and Powertrain Split-ASEAN
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms-ASEAN

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1-Modularity in EV Platforms
• Growth Opportunity 2-Alternate ICE Systems
• Growth Opportunity 3-Realignment of Global Supply Chains

Best Practices Recognition

• Best Practices Recognition

Frost Radar

• Frost Radar

Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Next Steps
• Take the Next Step
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer