유럽의 소형 상용차 시장 : 대수 예측 및 성장 기회(2024-2032년)

Strong Decarbonization Measures are Driving Transformational Growth in Electric Vehicles toward Penetration of 60% by 2032

Frost & Sullivan expects the overall light commercial vehicle (LCV) market size to reach 2.4 million units by 2032. The European LCV market is on track to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.9% between 2023 and 2032. Electric vehicle (EV) penetration will increase to reach 60.0% during this period, up from 6.9% in 2023.

The overall size of the LCV market in Europe in 2023 was 1.9 million units. Vans held the largest volume at 1.7 million units and contributed 92.4% of the total LCV volumes. The less than 3.5t segment held 99.1% of the overall volume, and the greater than 3.5t segment made up the remaining share.

One out of every 3 LCVs sold in Europe belongs to the Stellantis Group. Next comes Ford at a distant second, with a market share of 18.0%, followed closely by Renault-Nissan Group at 15.0%. German manufacturers Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz with a combined share of 21.5% complete the top five players.

Diesel is the primary powertrain technology for LCVs, powering 86.0% of them. Diesel powers 86.1% of the vehicles in the less than 3.5t segment, and even less in the higher-weight class of the greater than 3.5t segment, with a 75.0% share, due to the significant presence of EVs.

Pickups in Europe are almost entirely used for personal applications. Meanwhile, 32.9% of vans are used for parcel and delivery applications. Utilities, mobile services, and construction applications make up 37.0% of van sales, with personal and passenger applications holding a combined share of 30.2%.

The study period for this European LCV research service is 2023 to 2032.

Key Issues Addressed

• What is the size of the Europe LCV market in 2023? What are the market's future growth prospects?
• Who are the key OEMs, and what are the major applications in the LCV segment?
• What are the prospects for electrification in the market, and who are the key players driving it?
• How does the total cost of ownership for eLCVs compare with that of ICE LCV?
• What is the volume of the eLCV market expected to be in the future? What are the drivers for the growth of this market? 

Research Highlights

LCV Market: Volume and xEV Penetration Forecast, Europe, 2023–2032

Research Scope

Scope

Geographic Coverage

Europe

Study Period

2023-2032

Base Year

2023

Forecast Period

2024-2032

Market Segments

Pickups, Vans, Cab-Over-Engine (COE) Trucks

LCV Market Segmentation

GVWR < 6 tons LCV: 

• Pickups: Compact, Mid-size, Full-size, and Heavy-Duty (HD)
• Vans: Small, Medium, and Large
• Cab-over-engine (COE) Trucks: Mini, Small, and Light

Powertrain Types:

• Gasoline
• Diesel
• Natural Gas
• Electric Vehicle (represented as both EV and xEV in this study)

Top 3 Strategic Imperatives impacting the European LCV Market

Industry Convergence

Why:

• Collaborations among automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), Tier I suppliers, and tech companies will likely address common challenges in emissions, safety, and connectivity.
• Synergies will allow stakeholders to develop innovative solutions faster, cut costs, and mitigate risks.

Frost Perspective:

• Partnerships between automotive and tech companies are already happening and will become more common.
• The confluence of ideas from diverse area and expertise is expected to transform the next decade.

Internal Challenges

Why:

• The trucking industry, dominated by legacy companies with old ideas and resistance to change, has attracted interest from tech-savvy start-ups in recent years.
• These young companies are rewriting the rules of the game through high-level technology and artificial intelligence (AI).

Frost Perspective:

• The following 2 to 5 years will see many new participants entering the market, especially in electrification.
• Numerous technology companies want a piece of the trucking pie and are working on connectivity, freight brokerage, and autonomous driving.

Transformative Megatrends

Why:

• Frost & Sullivan’s Mobility Revolution Megatrend considers how autonomous mobility, green transportation, and new mobility models will shape the future.
• In the trucking industry, the keywords are connected, autonomous, shared, and electric (CASE).
• Each will contribute to a cleaner, safer, and more sustainable environment.

Frost Perspective:

• Connected and shared technologies in the form of telematics and digital freight brokerage are in the nascent stage but already in deployment.
• Frost & Sullivan expects a proliferation of electric trucks in this decade.
• Depending on the level, autonomous driving is still 5 to 10 years away.

Table of Contents

Growth Environment-Transformation in European Light Commercial Vehicle Sector

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Industry

Growth Environment

• Key Findings
• LCV Sales Volume and Application Share
• LCV Powertrain Split
• Volume Forecast and EV Penetration

Ecosystem

• Research Scope
• LCV Market Segmentation

LCV Market Outlook

• Europe-Regional Outlook
• LCV Volumes
• LCV Powertrain Split
• LCV OEM Market Share
• Major LCV Applications
• Key LCV Applications Share

Key Country Insight

• Country Insight-Germany
• Country Insight-France
• Country Insight-Italy
• Country Insight-Spain
• Country Insight-United Kingdom

LCV Electrification

• Electrification Use Cases-Pickups
• Electrification Use Cases-Vans
• eLCV Technology Roadmap
• Drivetrain Architecture Mapping-OEMs
• eLCV Models by Vehicle Size
• Electric Platforms of Key OEMs
• Key Metrics for Electric Pickups
• Mileage Range of Electric Vans
• Price Range of Electric Vans
• Volume Forecast and EV Penetration
• Small Electric Vans-Battery Capacity and Motor Power
• Medium Electric Vans-Battery Capacity and Motor Power
• Large Electric Vans-Battery Capacity and Motor Power
• Key eLCV Launches
• EV Incentives-Select Countries

Volumes Forecast

• Volume Forecast by Segment
• Powertrain Share Forecast
• Electric Powertrain Share Forecast
• Pickup Volume Forecast and EV Penetration
• Van Volume Forecast and EV Penetration
• COE Truck Volume Forecast and EV Penetration
• LCV Future Outlook by Body Style

TCO Analysis

• TCO Analysis-Key Assumptions
• Large Vans-TCO Share and per Mile Cost
• Large Vans-Payback Period
• Large Vans-TCO Components
• Small Vans-TCO Share and per Mile Cost
• Small Vans-Payback Period
• Small Vans-TCO Components

Growth Opportunity Universe in Light Commercial Vehicle Sector

• Growth Opportunity 1-Challenging Macro-economic Conditions
• Growth Opportunity 2-Pickups to Compensate for Decline in Cab-over-Engine (COE) Trucks
• Growth Opportunity 3-Growing Electric Vehicle (EV) Ecosystem

Best Practices Recognition

• Best Practices Recognition

Frost Radar

• Frost Radar

Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Next Steps
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer