세계의 생성형 AI 스마트폰 시장 예측(2024-2028년) : 2024년 7월

This IDC study presents our new five-year forecast for GenAI-capable smartphone shipments worldwide by operating system. The GenAI smartphone market will reach 234.2 million units shipped in 2024, up 363.6% from the 50.5 million units shipped in 2023. From there, shipments will hit 912.0 million units in 2028, the final year of our forecast period, resulting in a CAGR of 78.4%."GenAI-capable devices are locked and loaded and look to be the next big thing the industry has to offer consumers," said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "The triple-digit growth in 2024 will be followed by four consecutive years of double-digit growth as device manufacturers look to incorporate GenAI-capable CPUs and NPUs across most premium device offerings. The cost will remain a critical inhibitor at launch as many of the capable chipsets and neural processing units don't come cheap and are available primarily in the ultra-premium segment of the market. However, over time, we believe these components will enter the midmarket and more affordable models as competition grows among device manufacturers and AI applications."

IDC Market Forecast Figure

Executive Summary

Advice for Technology Suppliers

Market Forecast

• Forecast Comparison: GenAI Smartphones Versus Basic Smartphones
  • Basic Smartphones
  • GenAI Smartphones
• Forecast by Operating System
  • Android
  • iOS

Market Context

• Drivers and Inhibitors
  • Drivers
    • AI Demand
    • Large Language Models
  • Inhibitors
    • Elevated ASPs
    • Inflation
• Significant Market Developments
  • Apple Enters the Fight
• Changes from Prior Forecast

Market Definition

• Basic Smartphone
• Generative AI Smartphone
  • GenAI Examples

Methodology

• Primary Data Sources
• Secondary Sources
• IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker

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