미국의 중고차 : 시장 점유율 분석, 업계 동향과 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the United States used car market size was valued at USD 852.80 billion in 2025 and estimated to grow from USD 871.30 billion in 2026 to reach USD 980.48 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 2.41% during the forecast period (2026-2031).

This report is Segmented by Vendor Type (Organized and Unorganized), Fuel Type (Gasoline, Diesel, Hybrid, and Battery Electric), Body Type (Hatchback, Sedan, and More), Sales Channel (Online and Offline), and State. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD) and Volume (Units).

United States Used Car Market Trends and Insights

Rising New-Vehicle Prices Driving Value-Seeking Buyers

Average new-car transaction prices reached USD 48,841 in July 2025, yet the typical monthly payment now runs above USD 700, steering many first-time purchasers into the United States used car market. Loan balances on used cars averaged USD 26,795 in mid-2025, giving value-oriented shoppers a viable substitute when credit is tight. The affordability gap is widest in California, New York, and Illinois, where housing costs magnify the burden of a new-car payment. Dealers report that buyers who once considered entry-level new sedans are shifting toward three-year-old crossovers, lifting demand for late-model inventory. Pricing parity is unlikely before 2027 because automakers continue prioritizing profitable trucks and sport utility vehicles (SUVs). AutoNation's Q4 2024 disclosure showed used-vehicle gross profit up 14%, proving that disciplined sourcing and reconditioning sustain margin even when transactions slow.

Expansion of Certified Pre-Owned Programs

OEM-backed CPO inventory now covers a broader range of models after Toyota achieved 80% dealer participation and observed that 40% of CPO customers transition into a new Toyota within four years. Dealers that invest in on-site reconditioning reap higher front-end gross and future new-car conversions, creating a virtuous margin loop. Cox Automotive noted that certified pre-owned sales outpaced overall used volume in 2024, confirming strong buyer willingness to pay for warranty peace of mind. Acura's Precision Used initiative and similar offerings from mainstream brands generate warranty-linked service revenue and strengthen dealer profit streams. Manufacturer marketing support and lower floor-plan rates provide franchise stores with cost advantages that independents cannot match. As warranty coverage stretches, buyers see less risk in older vehicles, sustaining volume despite higher interest charges.

Higher Interest-Rate Environment Suppressing Affordability

In Q3 2025, the average used-vehicle monthly loan payment in the United States was approximately USD 538, according to the data released by TransUnion, reflecting higher borrowing costs amid rising interest rates. Delinquency rates for auto loans (60+ days past due) were around 1.45%, slightly higher than the previous year, showing moderate credit performance pressure. Subprime borrowers faced higher interest rates than prime borrowers, contributing to affordability challenges. Lenders generally maintained tighter credit standards, requiring larger down payments and lower loan-to-value ratios. With the Federal Reserve keeping policy rates elevated, borrowing costs are expected to remain high into 2026, limiting relief for consumers.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. IRA USD 4,000 Used-EV Credit Energizing Secondary EV Demand
2. OEM Subscription-to-Resale Loops Boosting Late-Model Supply
3. Post-Pandemic Shortage of 0-4-Year Lease Returns

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Organized dealers controlled 51.27% of the United States used car market share in 2025 and are set to grow at a 7.41% CAGR through 2031 as scale allows bulk buying and rapid tech deployment. PriceVantage improved inventory turns fivefold for early adopters, illustrating data-driven gains. Lithia Motors retailed 84,251 used units in Q3 2024 and lifted gross per unit to USD 2,115. Franchise groups amortize software costs across many rooftops and benefit from lower floor-plan interest rates. Independents, still handling 48.73% of volume, face margin compression as online transparency narrows pricing latitude. Many must rely on buy-here-pay-here financing that carries higher default risk, limiting capital for digital upgrades.

Consolidation continues: AutoNation, Penske, and Sonic each added multiple rooftops in 2024, and private equity remains active. Large groups attach Finance and Insurance (F&I) products to 75-80% of transactions, boosting per-unit profit by USD 1,500-2,000. Independents manage closer to 50%, widening the earnings gap. With thin margins and rising recon costs, small lots increasingly sell or partner with larger networks that can extend technology and logistics infrastructure.

Gasoline vehicles still represented 84.28% of the United States used car market size in 2025, yet battery-electric units are growing at a 7.78% CAGR to 2031. Recurrent Auto recorded a 25% decline in used-EV prices during 2024, placing many models in the USD 25,000-28,000 range. The Treasury logged 15,000 used-EV credit transactions by May 2024 before the incentive's repeal. Hertz's early-2024 liquidation of 20,000 EVs widened supply and normalized resale talk tracks. Although the credit ended, lower energy and maintenance costs sustain interest, particularly in coastal metros with mature charging networks.

Hybrid demand grows modestly as buyers seek efficiency without range anxiety, while diesel share erodes under tighter emissions rules. Tesla Model 3 depreciation narrowed against gasoline peers in 2024, signaling stabilizing residuals that encourage secondary buyers. Dealers market lifetime fuel-savings calculators to offset higher financing rates, and manufacturers' eight-year battery warranties assuage durability concerns. Externalities such as state zero-emission vehicle mandates will keep the electric share trending upward.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Vendor Type
  • Organized
  • Unorganized
• By Fuel Type
  • Gasoline
  • Diesel
  • Hybrid
  • Battery-Electric
• By Body Type
  • Hatchback
  • Sedan
  • Sport Utility Vehicle (SUV)/Multi-Purpose Vehicle (MPV)
  • Pickup and Van
• By Sales Channel
  • Offline
  • Online
• By State
  • California
  • Texas
  • Florida
  • New York
  • Illinois
  • Pennsylvania
  • Ohio
  • Georgia
  • North Carolina
  • Washington
  • Rest of United States

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

1. CarMax Inc.
2. Carvana Co.
3. AutoNation Inc.
4. Lithia Motors Inc.
5. Sonic Automotive Inc.
6. Penske Automotive Group
7. Berkshire Hathaway Automotive
8. Group 1 Automotive Inc.
9. Asbury Automotive Group
10. Hendrick Automotive Group
11. CarBravo
12. DriveTime Automotive Group
13. Cox Automotive (Autotrader, KBB)
14. TrueCar Inc.
15. Cars.com Inc.
16. ACV Auctions Inc.
17. Manheim

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Rising New-Vehicle Prices Driving Value-Seeking Buyers
  • 4.2.2 Expansion of Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) Programs
  • 4.2.3 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) USD 4k Used-EV Credit Energizing Secondary EV Demand
  • 4.2.4 Original Equipment Manufacturer Subscription-to-Resale Loops Boosting Late-Model Supply
  • 4.2.5 AI-Driven Dynamic-Pricing Engines Lifting Dealer Profitability
  • 4.2.6 Dealer-Built Home-Delivery Logistics Widening Catchment Areas
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 Higher Interest-Rate Environment Suppressing Affordability
  • 4.3.2 Post-Pandemic Shortage of 0-4-Yr Lease Returns
  • 4.3.3 Normalizing Wholesale Auction Prices, Compressing Margins
  • 4.3.4 State "Right-to-Repair" Data Rules Raising Reconditioning Costs
• 4.4 Value/Supply-Chain Analysis
• 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
• 4.6 Technological Outlook
• 4.7 Porter's Five Forces
  • 4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.7.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 Market Size and Growth Forecasts (Value (USD) and Volume (Units))

• 5.1 By Vendor Type
  • 5.1.1 Organized
  • 5.1.2 Unorganized
• 5.2 By Fuel Type
  • 5.2.1 Gasoline
  • 5.2.2 Diesel
  • 5.2.3 Hybrid
  • 5.2.4 Battery-Electric
• 5.3 By Body Type
  • 5.3.1 Hatchback
  • 5.3.2 Sedan
  • 5.3.3 Sport Utility Vehicle (SUV)/Multi-Purpose Vehicle (MPV)
  • 5.3.4 Pickup and Van
• 5.4 By Sales Channel
  • 5.4.1 Offline
  • 5.4.2 Online
• 5.5 By State
  • 5.5.1 California
  • 5.5.2 Texas
  • 5.5.3 Florida
  • 5.5.4 New York
  • 5.5.5 Illinois
  • 5.5.6 Pennsylvania
  • 5.5.7 Ohio
  • 5.5.8 Georgia
  • 5.5.9 North Carolina
  • 5.5.10 Washington
  • 5.5.11 Rest of United States

6 Competitive Landscape

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves
• 6.3 Market Share Analysis
• 6.4 Company Profiles (Includes Global Level Overview, Market Level Overview, Core Segments, Financials as Available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for Key Companies, Products and Services, SWOT Analysis, and Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 CarMax Inc.
  • 6.4.2 Carvana Co.
  • 6.4.3 AutoNation Inc.
  • 6.4.4 Lithia Motors Inc.
  • 6.4.5 Sonic Automotive Inc.
  • 6.4.6 Penske Automotive Group
  • 6.4.7 Berkshire Hathaway Automotive
  • 6.4.8 Group 1 Automotive Inc.
  • 6.4.9 Asbury Automotive Group
  • 6.4.10 Hendrick Automotive Group
  • 6.4.11 CarBravo
  • 6.4.12 DriveTime Automotive Group
  • 6.4.13 Cox Automotive (Autotrader, KBB)
  • 6.4.14 TrueCar Inc.
  • 6.4.15 Cars.com Inc.
  • 6.4.16 ACV Auctions Inc.
  • 6.4.17 Manheim

7 Market Opportunities and Future Outlook

• 7.1 White-Space and Unmet-Need Assessment