중동 및 아프리카의 민간 항공기 : 시장 점유율 분석, 업계 동향 및 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the Middle East and Africa commercial aircraft market size is expected to grow from USD 27.99 billion in 2025 to USD 29.46 billion in 2026, and is forecasted to reach USD 36.54 billion by 2031 at a 4.40% CAGR over 2026-2031.

This report is Segmented by Aircraft Type (Narrowbody, Widebody, and Regional Jets), Application (Passenger and Freighter), Propulsion Type (Turbofan and Turboprop), Component (Airframe Structures, Aero-Engines, Avionics and Flight Control, Cabin Interior and IFEC, and More), and Geography (Middle East and Africa). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Middle East and Africa Commercial Aircraft Market Trends and Insights

Rising Fleet Replacement Cycles Across GCC

GCC airlines entered 2025 with a stronger case for renewal than for life extension, which is lifting procurement activity across the Middle East and Africa commercial aircraft market. flydubai signed a landmark agreement for 150 A321neo aircraft in November 2025, becoming a new Airbus customer through that order. The change is important because replacement is no longer tied solely to aircraft age but also to fuel efficiency, seat economics, and the need to match competitors' fleets on cost per trip. Saudia Group also disclosed an order for 10 A330-900 aircraft for flyadeal in April 2025, indicating that renewal in the Gulf is broadening from simple narrowbody replacement to longer-haul network planning. As a result, the Middle East and Africa commercial aircraft market is seeing replacement cycles accelerate rather than waiting until the late 2020s.

Growth In Sixth-Freedom Hub Traffic

Widebody demand in the Gulf still rests on the long-standing hub model that channels passengers through a few large transfer airports, and that continues to support the Middle East and Africa commercial aircraft market. Boeing said in 2025 that Middle East airlines will need 1,370 widebody jets by 2044, which is one of the clearest signs that long-haul hub traffic still matters deeply in regional fleet planning. Saudi Arabia is also pushing a larger aviation build-out under Vision 2030, with a target of reaching 330 million annual air passengers by 2030 through airport modernization and airline development. That policy direction supports future fleet growth not only for flagship carriers but also for new capacity platforms designed to compete for intercontinental flows. The result is a market where narrowbody expansion in domestic and regional systems can sit alongside continued widebody investment for long-haul transfer traffic.

Aircraft Delivery Backlogs Extending Fleet Renewal Timelines

A major brake on the Middle East and Africa commercial aircraft market is the simple fact that aircraft are harder to obtain on schedule than airlines had expected. Large order queues at major OEMs are stretching renewal timelines, which is especially difficult for carriers trying to modernize quickly or launch new routes with a specific aircraft type. That pushes some operators toward lease extensions, used aircraft, and phased fleet plans instead of the direct transition they originally preferred. The issue matters more in this region because many airlines' strategies are tied to formal expansion programs, so any delivery slippage can also delay route launches, staffing plans, and airport utilization, keeping demand intact but slowing the rate at which that demand converts into active fleet capacity.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Expansion Of Low-Cost And Narrowbody Networks
2. Cargo Capacity Addition For E-Commerce And Freight
3. USD-Denominated Financing Pressure On African Carriers

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Narrowbody aircraft accounted for 76.49% of the market in 2025, making them the largest aircraft category in the Middle East and Africa commercial aircraft market. The same segment is also projected to record the fastest 5.65% CAGR through 2031, which shows that current fleet leadership is expected to continue rather than reverse. That pattern reflects the operational reality of both sub-regions, where short- and medium-haul flying still accounts for most route activity and where single-aisle economics remain the most flexible. Boeing's 2025 outlook for the Middle East pointed to 1,430 single-aisle deliveries through 2044, reinforcing the long-term role of narrowbody fleets in regional expansion. Boeing also said that 70% of new African aircraft deliveries through 2044 will be single-aisle aircraft, which supports the same aircraft preference from the African side of the market. The Middle East and Africa commercial aircraft market is therefore being shaped by a dominant fleet logic: adding capacity with aircraft that can serve dense domestic links, regional services, and lower-risk international routes.

Within this category, the A321neo family has taken on a stronger strategic role because airlines can use it across both standard regional missions and longer thin routes. flydubai's 2025 agreement for 150 A321neo aircraft was one of the clearest signals that narrowbody replacement has become central to fleet strategy in the Gulf. Widebody aircraft still play a necessary role at Gulf transfer hubs, but their role is more concentrated on long-haul trunk routes and intercontinental connectivity. Regional jets remain smaller in value, yet they are relevant in Africa, where some carriers need a step between turboprops and larger narrowbodies. The full picture is a bifurcated narrowbody market, with Gulf operators using aircraft for high-frequency scale and African operators using them as sub-regional connectors where larger aircraft are not economical.

Passenger operations accounted for 90.34% of the market in 2025, keeping them far ahead of freighter activity in the Middle East and Africa commercial aircraft market. Passenger aircraft are also projected to grow at a 5.35% CAGR through 2031, making the largest application segment the fastest-growing. That result aligns with the region's airline structure, where network growth, connectivity goals, and airport investment are still centered mainly on carrying people rather than cargo alone. Boeing projected that Africa's passenger traffic will grow at 6% annually through 2044, supporting a long runway for airline fleet growth across the continent. The Middle East and Africa commercial aircraft market, therefore, remains heavily passenger-led, even as freight economics become more important in route planning.

Freighter aircraft are much less valuable, but they carry strategic weight by improving network resilience and aircraft utilization. IATA's report of 6% air cargo growth for African airlines in 2025 showed that freight demand is not a side issue, especially in corridors where cargo revenue helps support thinner schedules. That is why some carriers increasingly view passenger and freight planning together rather than as separate fleet decisions. In practical terms, the freighter sub-segment helps stabilize the broader passenger system by improving revenue quality on routes with less even demand patterns. The Middle East and Africa commercial aircraft market is still dominated by passenger aircraft. Still, cargo has become a more meaningful support layer than its share of value alone would suggest.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Aircraft Type
  • Narrowbody
  • Widebody
  • Regional Jets
• By Application
  • Passenger
  • Freighter
• By Propulsion Type
  • Turbofan
  • Turboprop
• By Component
  • Airframe Structures
  • Aero-Engines
  • Avionics and Flight Control
  • Cabin Interior and IFEC
  • Other Components
• By Geography
  • Middle East
    • Saudi Arabia
    • United Arab Emirates
    • Qatar
    • Kuwait
    • Israel
    • Turkey
    • Rest of Middle East
  • Africa
    • South Africa
    • Egypt
    • Algeria
    • Nigeria
    • Rest of Africa

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

1. Airbus SE
2. The Boeing Company
3. Embraer S.A.
4. Avions de Transport Regional GIE
5. Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, Ltd.
6. Safran SA
7. RTX Corporation
8. Honeywell Aerospace Inc.
9. Leonardo S.p.A.
10. Diehl Stiftung & Co. KG,
11. Rolls-Royce Holdings plc
12. GE Aerospace (General Electric Company)
13. De Havilland Aircraft of Canada Limited

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

• 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4 MARKET LANDSCAPE

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Rising fleet replacement cycles across GCC carriers
  • 4.2.2 Growth in sixth-freedom hub traffic through the Gulf countries
  • 4.2.3 Expansion of low-cost and narrowbody networks
  • 4.2.4 Cargo capacity addition for e-commerce and perishables
  • 4.2.5 CORSIA and fuel-burn pressure accelerating new aircraft uptake
  • 4.2.6 Thin-route expansion in Africa requiring right-sized aircraft
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 Aircraft delivery backlogs extending fleet renewal timelines
  • 4.3.2 USD-denominated financing pressure on African operators
  • 4.3.3 Infrastructure and runway constraints beyond major hubs
  • 4.3.4 Pilot, crew, and simulator capacity shortages
• 4.4 Value / Supply-Chain Analysis
• 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
• 4.6 Technological Outlook
• 4.7 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • 4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.7.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH FORECASTS (VALUE)

• 5.1 By Aircraft Type
  • 5.1.1 Narrowbody
  • 5.1.2 Widebody
  • 5.1.3 Regional Jets
• 5.2 By Application
  • 5.2.1 Passenger
  • 5.2.2 Freighter
• 5.3 By Propulsion Type
  • 5.3.1 Turbofan
  • 5.3.2 Turboprop
• 5.4 By Component
  • 5.4.1 Airframe Structures
  • 5.4.2 Aero-Engines
  • 5.4.3 Avionics and Flight Control
  • 5.4.4 Cabin Interior and IFEC
  • 5.4.5 Other Components
• 5.5 By Geography
  • 5.5.1 Middle East
    • 5.5.1.1 Saudi Arabia
    • 5.5.1.2 United Arab Emirates
    • 5.5.1.3 Qatar
    • 5.5.1.4 Kuwait
    • 5.5.1.5 Israel
    • 5.5.1.6 Turkey
    • 5.5.1.7 Rest of Middle East
  • 5.5.2 Africa
    • 5.5.2.1 South Africa
    • 5.5.2.2 Egypt
    • 5.5.2.3 Algeria
    • 5.5.2.4 Nigeria
    • 5.5.2.5 Rest of Africa

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves
• 6.3 Market Share Analysis
• 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for key companies, Products and Services, and Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 Airbus SE
  • 6.4.2 The Boeing Company
  • 6.4.3 Embraer S.A.
  • 6.4.4 Avions de Transport Regional GIE
  • 6.4.5 Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, Ltd.
  • 6.4.6 Safran SA
  • 6.4.7 RTX Corporation
  • 6.4.8 Honeywell Aerospace Inc.
  • 6.4.9 Leonardo S.p.A.
  • 6.4.10 Diehl Stiftung & Co. KG,
  • 6.4.11 Rolls-Royce Holdings plc
  • 6.4.12 GE Aerospace (General Electric Company)
  • 6.4.13 De Havilland Aircraft of Canada Limited

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK

• 7.1 White-space and Unmet-Need Assessment