미국의 수력발전 : 시장 점유율 분석, 업계 동향과 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the United States hydropower market size was valued at 102.27 gigawatt in 2025 and estimated to grow from 102.72 gigawatt in 2026 to reach 104.98 gigawatt by 2031, at a CAGR of 0.44% during the forecast period (2026-2031).

This report is Segmented by Capacity Rating (Large Hydro, Medium Hydro, and Small and Micro Hydro), Technology (Reservoir-Based, Run-Of-River, Pumped-Storage, and In-Stream and Micro-Conduit), and End-User (Utilities, Independent Power Producers, and Industrial and Captive). The Market Sizes and Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Installed Capacity (GW).

United States Hydropower Market Trends and Insights

Federal Investment Tax-Credits Extension

The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act now delivers direct payments covering up to 30% of modernization costs, enabling 46 plants to pursue efficiency gains averaging 14% without adding capacity. Owners have lined up USD 2.4 billion in matching capital, confirming that the US hydropower market favors upgrades such as runner replacements and generator rewinds over new dams. Down-rating exciter losses and installing variable-speed governors boost annual output within the same hydraulic envelope, a strategy that improves revenue per cubic meter of flow while keeping licensing risk negligible. Because tax equity can be syndicated, smaller public-power entities also tap the credit, accelerating long-delayed electrical balance-of-plant renewals. In aggregate, the incentive nudges national energy supply upward through efficiency rather than expansion.

DOE's New Water Power RD&D Funding Pipeline

The Water Power Technologies Office earmarked USD 33 million in 2024 for projects that merge digital twins, sonar-based fish detection, and pumped-storage optimization. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory now models entire turbine assemblies in a virtual environment that predicts cavitation before it degrades blades, extending asset life with minimal downtime. Such analytics also compress the expertise gap created by retiring plant operators. Vendors of sensors, fiber-optic stator coils, and cloud SCADA, therefore, gain new domestic demand, positioning the US hydropower market as an export source of diagnostic software even while local megawatts remain flat. Over the long term, these tools could shave O&M expense ratios, improving free cash flow and attracting additional infrastructure capital.

Extended FERC Relicensing Timelines

The Integrated Licensing Process averages 7.6 years, during which capex faces inflation creep and investor patience wanes. Although a December 2024 rule requires agencies to act within one year on water-quality certifications, other consultations-particularly under the Endangered Species Act-can still stretch schedules beyond project pro-formas. As a result, owners often sequence modernization work to coincide with existing license terms, prioritizing asset preservation over expansions that would reopen environmental impact scopes.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Grid-Support Payments for Flexible Capacity
2. Aging Coal Retirements Creating Replacement Need
3. ESA-Driven Fish-Passage Retrofit Costs

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Large Hydro's 72.05% share in 2025 underscores the inertia of legacy federal dams whose reservoir footprints cannot meaningfully expand. In contrast, the Small & Micro bracket below 10 MW records a 4.55% CAGR as developers tap non-powered dams and irrigation conduits that bypass complex FERC processes. These projects add just kilowatts at a time, yet their streamlined timelines illustrate how distributed assets can reinforce rural grids without new transmission corridors. For many cooperatives, slipstreaming a 1 MW Kaplan unit into a flood-control structure offsets diesel peaker rentals. The segment enhances the nationwide US hydropower market while leaving aggregate capacity largely unchanged.

Investor interest coalesces around portfolios of 1-5 MW run-of-river stations where identical control packages cut O&M labor. Because drone inspections and plug-and-play governors reduce visit frequency, owners can supervise dozens of micro-plants from a single control center. This scale-via-software model elevates the internal rate of return despite modest nameplates, and it embodies the sector's pivot from greenfield dams to digital optimization.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Capacity Rating
  • Large Hydro (Above 100 MW)
  • Medium Hydro (10 to 100 MW)
  • Small and Micro Hydro (Below 10 MW)
• By Technology
  • Reservoir-Based
  • Run-of-River
  • Pumped-Storage
  • In-Stream and Micro-conduit
• By Component (Qualitative Analysis only)
  • Turbines
  • Generators
  • Control and Automation
  • Balance-of-Plant
• By End-User
  • Utilities (State and Public)
  • Independent Power Producers
  • Industrial and Captive

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

1. GE Vernova
2. Siemens Energy AG
3. Voith Hydro GmbH
4. Andritz AG
5. Toshiba Energy Systems
6. American Hydro
7. Canyon Hydro
8. Mavel Americas
9. Gilkes
10. Duke Energy Corporation
11. NextEra Energy Resources
12. Brookfield Renewable US
13. PacifiCorp
14. TVA
15. Bonneville Power Administration
16. PG&E
17. Xcel Energy
18. Dominion Energy
19. FirstLight Power
20. American Municipal Power

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Federal investment tax-credits extension
  • 4.2.2 DOE's new Water Power RD&D funding pipeline
  • 4.2.3 Grid-support payments for flexible capacity
  • 4.2.4 Aging coal retirements creating replacement need
  • 4.2.5 Corporate 24*7 clean-power procurement mandates
  • 4.2.6 Climate-driven flood-control modernization funds
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 Extended FERC relicensing timelines
  • 4.3.2 ESA-driven fish-passage retrofit costs
  • 4.3.3 Low avoided-cost rates in organized markets
  • 4.3.4 Distributed PV cannibalization risk for peak pricing
• 4.4 Supply-Chain Analysis
• 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
• 4.6 Technological Outlook
• 4.7 Porter's Five Forces
  • 4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.7.5 Competitive Rivalry
• 4.8 PESTLE Analysis

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts

• 5.1 By Capacity Rating
  • 5.1.1 Large Hydro (Above 100 MW)
  • 5.1.2 Medium Hydro (10 to 100 MW)
  • 5.1.3 Small and Micro Hydro (Below 10 MW)
• 5.2 By Technology
  • 5.2.1 Reservoir-Based
  • 5.2.2 Run-of-River
  • 5.2.3 Pumped-Storage
  • 5.2.4 In-Stream and Micro-conduit
• 5.3 By Component (Qualitative Analysis only)
  • 5.3.1 Turbines
  • 5.3.2 Generators
  • 5.3.3 Control and Automation
  • 5.3.4 Balance-of-Plant
• 5.4 By End-User
  • 5.4.1 Utilities (State and Public)
  • 5.4.2 Independent Power Producers
  • 5.4.3 Industrial and Captive

6 Competitive Landscape

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves (M&A, Partnerships, PPAs)
• 6.3 Market Share Analysis (Market Rank/Share for key companies)
• 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 GE Vernova
  • 6.4.2 Siemens Energy AG
  • 6.4.3 Voith Hydro GmbH
  • 6.4.4 Andritz AG
  • 6.4.5 Toshiba Energy Systems
  • 6.4.6 American Hydro
  • 6.4.7 Canyon Hydro
  • 6.4.8 Mavel Americas
  • 6.4.9 Gilkes
  • 6.4.10 Duke Energy Corporation
  • 6.4.11 NextEra Energy Resources
  • 6.4.12 Brookfield Renewable US
  • 6.4.13 PacifiCorp
  • 6.4.14 TVA
  • 6.4.15 Bonneville Power Administration
  • 6.4.16 PG&E
  • 6.4.17 Xcel Energy
  • 6.4.18 Dominion Energy
  • 6.4.19 FirstLight Power
  • 6.4.20 American Municipal Power

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook

• 7.1 White-space & Unmet-Need Assessment