세계의 수소 내연 엔진 중형 및 대형 트럭 시장

The drive to decarbonize the medium and heavy duty (MHD) truck industry has led to the development of numerous driveline options to replace conventional diesel internal combustion engines (D-ICE). While the greatest focus in both market interest and OEM R&D budgets has been on battery electric vehicles (BEVs), advocates have also promoted hydrogen as a means of decarbonization. While hydrogen as an emissions reduction pathway has been mainly predicated on fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), the increasing interest in using hydrogen to power adapted ICE engines for MHDs could have an effect on all stakeholders in the commercial vehicle value chain, shippers, regulators, and investors.

This report looks at the global market for hydrogen-ICE (H2-ICE) MHD trucks during the forecast period 2025-2034. It provides forecasts for the overall market, segmented by units and revenue, and unit sales forecasts segmented by vehicle size (medium duty and heavy duty) and task (long-haul, distribution, harsh duty, and vocational).

Guidehouse Insights projects that the global market for heavy duty trucks powered by H2-ICE drivelines will reach 41,081 units by 2034. This segment, which is expected to experience a 44.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the ten-year forecast period, includes the over-the-road (OTR), distribution and collection and delivery (distribution/C&D), harsh duty, and vocational segments.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Market Issues

• 2.1 Introduction
• 2.2 Drivers
  • 2.2.1 Regional Regulation
    • 2.2.1.1 North America
    • 2.2.1.2 Europe
    • 2.2.1.3 Asia Pacific
    • 2.2.1.4 Latin America and Mercosur
  • 2.2.2 Local Regulation
  • 2.2.3 Incentivizes
  • 2.2.4 Aftermarket Revenue
  • 2.2.5 Sustainability and Environmental, Social, and Governance Considerations
  • 2.2.6 Regulatory and Residual Value Future Proofing
  • 2.2.7 Technical Familiarity
  • 2.2.8 Vehicle Weight and Range
• 2.3 Barriers
  • 2.3.1 Infrastructure
  • 2.3.2 Vehicle Packaging
  • 2.3.3 Cost and Total Cost of Ownership Considerations
  • 2.3.4 Driver Acceptance
  • 2.3.5 Repair and Maintenance Provision and Access
  • 2.3.6 Funding Access and Residual Value Concerns
• 2.4 Pricing

3. Industry Value Chain

• 3.1 Competitive Landscape
  • 3.1.1 Merger & Acquisition Activities
  • 3.1.2 Business Model Evolution

4. Market Forecasts

• 4.1 Scope
• 4.2 Methodology
• 4.3 Limitations
• 4.4 Key Assumptions
• 4.5 Forecasts
  • 4.5.1 Heavy Duty H2-ICE
  • 4.5.2 Medium Duty H2-ICE
  • 4.5.3 OTR MHD H2-ICE Trucks
  • 4.5.4 Distribution/C&D MHD H2-ICE Truck Sales
  • 4.5.5 Harsh Duty MHD H2-ICE Trucks
  • 4.5.6 Vocational MHD H2-ICE

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

• 5.1 Three Big Takeaways
• 5.2 Recommendations
  • 5.2.1 Regulators
  • 5.2.2 OEMs
  • 5.2.3 Fleets
• 5.3 Conclusion

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List

7. Table of Contents

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes