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EV Adoption in Regional Haulage to Ensure Future Growth Potential of HD Electric Truck Sales

Countries across the world are moving toward a low-carbon economy. Electric vehicle adoption is gaining traction as a part of this shift, with rapid penetration expected beyond 2025 as the market for EV adoption matures and more EVs become available for commercial sale.

In Europe, the transition to zero-emission vehicles is an important element of the low-emission mobility strategy. City administrative bodies and local authorities play pivotal roles in this transition by providing incentives for low-emission vehicles and deploying charging infrastructure. Government incentives and programs, such as the electromobility directive from Germany, electric charging funding in France, and the Efficient and Sustainable Mobility Incentives (MOVES) II program in Spain, will drive electrification and the growth of charging infrastructure.

OEMs are focusing on urban distribution, refuse, and regional haul as strong use cases for electrification. Battery energy density and cycle life are expected to increase even as costs reduce with the likely commercialization of solid-state lithium and lithium-sulfur technology after 2027. Fuel cell technology is progressively getting better at power density and durability.

Crude oil price fluctuations and lower maintenance costs will strongly favor the total cost of ownership of electric trucks as battery prices are expected to decline significantly after 2025. Lower cost of ownership with attractive leasing options for batteries and trucks and greater access to charging infrastructure will encourage smaller fleets to shift to electric vehicles.

The study covers the commercial vehicle (CV) market, particularly HD CV: Greater than 16 tons GVWR. The study also provides a total cost of ownership analysis to examine the effect of these factors on the electric MD and HD segments.

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Electric Trucks
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Growth Environment

• Key Trends Influencing the Growth of Electric Trucks
• Electric MD-HD Trucks: Regional Contribution
• OEM Electrification Application Focus

Study Scope

• Research Scope
• Segmentation
• Growth Metrics
• Growth Drivers
• Growth Restraints
• Forecast Criteria

Growth Opportunity Analysis: Electric Bus

• HD Sales Forecast by Region, Europe
• Main Factors Impacting Electrification
• Impact Analysis: Legislative Factors
• Impact Analysis: Economic Factors
• Impact Analysis: Infrastructure Factors
• Impact Analysis: Technological Factors
• Electrification Use Cases for HD Electric Trucks
• Sales and Electric Vehicle Penetration Forecast
• Unit Shipment Forecast
• Powertrain Split Forecast for HD Trucks
• Energy Consumption Forecast
• Revenue Forecast for HD Electric Trucks, Europe
• Motor Type Mapping by OEM
• Battery Capacity Mapping by OEM Model

Growth Opportunity Analysis: Germany

• Growth Metrics
• Unit Shipment Forecast
• Energy Consumption Forecast
• Forecast Analysis

Growth Opportunity Analysis: France

• Growth Metrics
• Unit Shipment Forecast
• Energy Consumption Forecast
• Forecast Analysis

Growth Opportunity Analysis: Italy

• Growth Metrics
• Unit Shipment Forecast
• Energy Consumption Forecast
• Forecast Analysis

Growth Opportunity Analysis: Spain

• Growth Metrics
• Unit Shipment Forecast
• Energy Consumption Forecast
• Forecast Analysis

Growth Opportunity Analysis: UK

• Growth Metrics
• Unit Shipment Forecast
• Energy Consumption Forecast
• Forecast Analysis

Company Profiles

• DAF Trucks N.V: Strategy and Development Roadmap
• AB Volvo: Strategy and Development Roadmap
• Renault Trucks: Strategy and Development Roadmap
• Daimler Truck AG: Strategy and Development Roadmap
• IVECO S.p.A: Strategy and Development Roadmap
• Traton-MAN: Strategy and Development Roadmap
• Traton-Scania: Strategy and Development Roadmap

TCO Analysis, Europe

• TCO Analysis: Key Assumptions
• Total Cost of Ownership

Lifecycle CO2 Emission Assessment of ZEVs, HDT Europe

• HDT Operational Characteristics and User Cycle Overview
• Total HDT Lifecycle CO2 Emissions Assessment

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Dedicated Electric Platform Development
• Growth Opportunity 2: Electric Charging Infrastructure
• Growth Opportunity 3: Value-added Services

Appendix

• Abbreviations and Acronyms Used

Next Steps

• Your Next Steps
• Why Frost, Why Now?
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer