라틴아메리카의 자동차 산업 전망(2024년)

Connected and Electrified Vehicles, New Business Models, and Increasing Competition Enable Growth Opportunities

The Latin American automotive industry maintains its rising trend despite the severe effects of COVID-19 on local economies, international conflicts, inflation, exchange rates, and difficulties arising from credit accessibility.

With 4.8 million units sold in 2023, the Latin American automotive industry will likely grow 8.2% in 2024. However, the region has not reached pre-pandemic numbers, with 2023 sales numbers 10.7% lower than 2019. Mexico showed the most growth in the region, surpassing 2023 numbers by 24.4% and going from 1.1 million units to 1.4 million. Meanwhile, Colombia and Chile showed negative growth, with 29.9% and 26.5%, respectively.

This analysis covers multiple trends, including the rising penetration of Chinese original equipment manufacturers in the region, local production of hybrid and electric vehicles, powertrain diversification, expansion of connected vehicles, and new mobility models.

Frost & Sullivan expects the industry to grow 4.8% in 2024. Our estimations show that Colombia will likely lead growth in the region at 21.5%, translating into 187,500 units. Brazil, the largest market in Latin America, will likely sell 2.4 million units, recording 8% growth. In contrast, Argentina and Ecuador will experience a decrease in their total amount of light vehicle sales.

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Latin American Automotive Industry
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Growth Environment

• Key Findings: A Recap of 2023
• The 2023 Passenger Vehicle Industry: Forecast vs. Actual
• Key Findings: Top 5 Predictions for 2024
• Notable Regulations and Mandates: A Snapshot
• Automotive Industry by Country

2024 Global Economic Outlook

• Top 10 Trends for 2024
• Top 10 Economic Growth Opportunities
• Global GDP Growth: Mild Global Growth Slowdown from 3% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 as Major Markets Lose Growth Momentum
• Inflation and Interest Rates: Headline Inflation to Continue Declining; H2 2024 Shift Toward Rate Cuts for Advanced Markets
• Currency Trajectory: Dollar to Remain Strong in H1 2024; Emerging Market Currencies to Receive Boost from Q3 2024 Onwards
• Oil Industry: Q1 OPEC+ Oil Production Cuts; Non-OPEC Production to Increase
• Labor Market: Moderate Unemployment Uptick; Positive Expectations Regarding Market Sentiment to Support Labor Hoarding
• Critical Mineral Supplies: Need for Economic Resiliency will Bolster Cross-border and Cross-industry Partnerships
• North America: Economic Slowdown amid Discretionary Spending Pullback and Elevated Interest Rates
• Western Europe: Moderate Growth Pick-up as Inflation Headwinds Gradually Ease; Rebuilding Fiscal Buffers to Take Precedence
• The Middle East: Economic Diversification to Limit the Pullback from a Slowdown in Global Oil Markets to Drive Non-oil Growth
• Asia: Emerging Markets to Drive Growth Momentum; Fiscal Measures to Support Chinese Economic Recovery
• List of Countries and Territories, 2024
• Global GDP Growth Snapshot
• LATAM: External Headwinds to Cause Exports and Investment Pullback; Argentina's Growth Will Slow to 1.4% in 2024
• Growth Opportunity: Fiscal Support to Benefit Infrastructure, Transportation; Green Energy and Mining Exports to Remain Robust amid Decarbonization Focus
• List of Countries and Territories, 2024

Research Scope and Segmentation

• Research Scope
• Segmentation

Trends

• Top Trends Driving the LATAM Automotive Industry
• Trend 1: Powertrain Diversification
• Trend 2: Chinese OEMs
• Trend 3: Local Production of Hybrids and EVs
• Trend 4: Expansion of CCs
• Trend 5: Emergence of New Mobility Business Models
• Service and Tech Roadmap
• CASE Demand Matrix by Country

Sales and Pricing by Country

• Automotive Sales by Country
• Price Comparison Analysis
• Segment Forecast

Industry Analysis by Country

• Argentina
• Brazil
• Chile
• Colombia
• Ecuador
• Mexico
• Peru
• Uruguay

Conclusions

• Conclusions and Outlook

Next Steps

• Growth Opportunity 1: Vehicle Subscription Business Model
• Growth Opportunity 2: Connected Car Services
• Growth Opportunity 3: Expansion of Electrified Vehicles

Next Steps

• Your Next Steps
• Why Frost, Why Now?
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer