세계의 소형 상용차 및 중대형 트럭 시장 전망(2025년)

Robust Sales in Emerging Markets Mitigate the Effects of the Degrowth in North America and Europe

The global commercial vehicle market witnessed a decline in sales volumes in 2024, more so in the medium and heavy-duty truck segments than in light commercial vehicles (LCVs). Various regional markets had an oversupply, leading to a fall in truck demand. ASEAN, China, and India experienced a significant decline in LCV sales volumes, following strong growth in recent years. Poor demand for commercial vehicles in rural areas and lower consumption in urban areas due to businesses implementing cost-cutting measures amid unstable global macroeconomics were the leading contributors. In addition, high interest rates, rising geopolitical tensions, and excess supply all led to growing uncertainty. This dampened business sentiment and resulted in muted demand for trucks. Any incremental purchases or even truck replacements at the fleet end were put on hold.

Counter-tariffs from countries in response to the imposition of tariffs by the United States have made the global economy, trade, and logistics unpredictable in 2025. This is expected to have a significant impact on the overall freight movement and the cost of raw materials, goods, and components, affecting vehicle demand.

Apart from Mexico, most countries have limited exposure to US trade. Given the stance of the new US administration, the Environmental Protection Agency's Phase 3 greenhouse gas regulations are expected to be diluted or pushed back by a few years. This is expected to result in a setback to the sales of electrified commercial vehicles. Europe, too, with a slowdown in electric vehicle (EV) investments and difficulty in achieving previously set targets, is expected to push back some of its existing EV-related targets by at least a couple of years.

However, India, ASEAN, and Latin America are projected to sustain growth in commercial vehicle sales in 2025. Stronger macroeconomics, improving business sentiments, and the revival of consumption are likely to be the major drivers of growth.

The study period is 2024-2025, with 2024 as the base year and 2025 as the forecast period. The geographic scope is North America, Latin America, Europe, India, ASEAN, and China.

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Light Commercial Vehicle and Medium & High-duty Truck Industry
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline EngineTM

Growth Environment

• Top Commercial Vehicle Trends
• A Recap of 2024
• Top 5 Predictions for 2025
• LCV Market
• MD&HD Truck Market

Ecosystem

• Research Scope
• Market Segmentation

Global Economic Outlook, 2025

• Top 10 Growth Opportunities
• Top 10 Trends for 2025
• Global GDP Growth Snapshot
• Trend 1: Global GDP Growth
• Growth Opportunity 1: Global GDP Growth
• Trend 2: Inflation and Interest Rates
• Growth Opportunity 2: Inflation and Interest Rates
• Trend 3: Oil Markets
• Growth Opportunity 3: Oil Markets
• Trend 4: Labor Market
• Growth Opportunity 4: Labor Market
• Trend 5: US Dollar and Gold
• Growth Opportunity 5: US Dollar and Gold
• Trend 6: North America
• Growth Opportunity 6: North America
• Trend 7: Latin America
• Growth Opportunity 7: Latin America
• Trend 8: Western Europe
• Growth Opportunity 8: Western Europe
• Trend 9: Middle East
• Growth Opportunity 9: Middle East
• Trend 10: Asia
• Growth Opportunity 10: Asia

Growth Generator: LCV Market Outlook

• Market Forecast
• Market Forecast by Region and Vehicle Category
• LCV OEM Sales Performance
• Powertrain Technology Forecast
• Key OEMs' Anticipated eLCV Launches

Growth Generator: MD&HD Truck Market Outlook

• Market Forecast
• Market Forecast by Region and Category
• MD&HD Truck OEM Sales Performance
• Powertrain Technology Forecast
• Key OEMs' Anticipated eMD&HD Truck Launches

Growth Generator: North America

• Market Outlook
• LCV Market
• MD&HD Truck Market
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Growth Generator: Europe

• Market Outlook
• LCV Market
• MD&HD Truck Market
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Growth Generator: China

• Market Outlook
• LCV Market
• MD&HD Truck Market
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Growth Generator: India

• Market Outlook
• LCV Market
• MD&HD Truck Market
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Growth Generator: LATAM

• Market Outlook
• LCV Market
• MD&HD Truck Market
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Growth Generator: ASEAN

• Market Outlook
• LCV Market
• MD&HD Truck Market
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Pursue New Market Opportunities
• Growth Opportunity 2: Develop ICE Platforms for Alternative Fuels
• Growth Opportunity 3: Strengthen Emerging Markets

Appendix & Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Next Steps
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer