자동차 시장을 촉진하는 주요 동향 : 세계(2026년)

Global light vehicle demand remained resilient in 2025, supported by the recovery of major automotive markets, strong APAC momentum, and the continued consumer shift toward electrified and utility-focused vehicles. This report evaluates how the global automotive industry is entering 2026 amid geopolitical instability, tariff realignment, weakening EV policy support, and renewed pressure on affordability and supply chain security.

While overall sales expanded in 2025, the outlook for 2026 is increasingly scenario-dependent. A pre-conflict forecast indicated moderate growth, but the US–Iran war introduces a downside risk through higher crude prices, disrupted logistics, aluminum and petrochemical constraints, and semiconductor exposure. Under prolonged conflict conditions, global light vehicle sales could fall below 2025 levels, highlighting the industry’s sensitivity to energy shocks and material disruptions.

Electrification continues to grow, but the transition is becoming less linear. BEVs gained strongly in China, Europe, and emerging markets, while North America recorded weaker BEV demand due to incentive rollbacks, affordability concerns, and charging limitations. As a result, hybrids, PHEVs, and EREVs are becoming critical bridge technologies, allowing OEMs to balance emissions goals with consumer practicality and infrastructure realities.

Regionally, China remains the most influential market, combining scale, aggressive NEV competition, and export strength. India and broader APAC continue to support global growth, while North America pivots toward hybrids, SUVs, pickups, and localized production. Europe faces rising competitive pressure from Chinese OEMs, tariff complexity, and policy recalibration, while South America benefits from stronger demand and localization-led strategies.

Overall, the industry is shifting from volume-led expansion to resilience-led growth. OEM success in 2026 will depend on supply chain diversification, regional manufacturing depth, affordable electrification, disciplined capital allocation, and the ability to respond quickly to geopolitical and regulatory volatility.

Table of Contents

Scope and Segmentation

• Research Scope
• Vehicle Segmentation

Strategic Imperatives

• Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Global Automotive Industry

Growth Opportunity Analysis

• Growth Drivers
• Growth Restraints

Growth Environment

• 2025: Key Highlights
• Global LV Sales by Region in 2025 and 2026F: Snapshot (Pre-US-Iran War Forecast)
• Global LV Market Forecast: 3 Scenarios (Post US-Iran War)
• Scenario 1: Sales Forecast if War Conflicts End by Q2 2026
• Scenario 2: Sales Forecast if War Conflicts End by Q3 2026
• Scenario 3: Sales Forecast if War Conflicts End by Q4 2026
• Top 5 Markets and OEMs, 2025
• Global EV Market Overview, 2025 and 2026E
• Case Study: BYD's EV Market Performance in 2025

Top 5 Markets, Predictions for 2026

• Top 10 Predictions for 2026

Macroeconomic Outlook

• Global Economic Transformations for 2026
• Global GDP Growth Annual Snapshot
• Global GDP Growth Quarterly Snapshot
• Visioning Scenarios: 2026 Global Macro Conditions

North America

• Total Sales, 2025
• LV Sales, US, 2024–2025
• Top OEM Groups by Sales
• Auto Tariffs Impact, 2025
• Regulations on US Automakers
• LV Sales, Canada, 2024–2025
• Top OEM Groups by Sales
• Auto Tariffs Impact, 2025
• LV Sales, Mexico, 2024–2025
• Top OEM Groups by Sales
• Auto Tariffs Impact, 2025
• LV Production Landscape, North America
• Future Production Lineups, North America
• LV Sales Forecast and Trends, North America
• Key Takeaways, North America

Europe

• LV Sales Overview, Europe, 2024–2025
• Current Market Position in Europe
• Tariff Landscape Across Europe, 2025
• EU China EV Trade Pivot
• LV Sales, Germany, 2024–2025
• Top OEM Groups by Sales
• LV Sales, UK, 2024–2025
• Top OEM Groups by Sales
• LV Sales, France, 2024–2025
• Top OEM Groups by Sales
• LV Sales, Italy, 2024–2025
• Top OEM Groups by Sales
• LV Sales, Spain, 2024–2025
• Top OEM Groups by Sales
• LV Production Landscape, Europe
• Upcoming Launches, Europe
• Chinese OEMs’ Expansion in Europe
• LV Sales Forecast and Trends, Europe
• Key Takeaways, Europe

APAC

• Top Markets for Sales, APAC, 2024–2025
• LV Sales, China, 2024–2025
• Top OEM Groups by Sales
• Tariffs and Regulations
• LV Sales, Japan, 2024–2025
• Top OEM Groups by Sales
• Tariffs and Regulations
• LV Sales, India, 2024–2025
• Top OEM Groups by Sales
• Tariffs and Regulations
• LV Sales, South Korea, 2024–2025
• Top OEM Groups by Sales
• Tariffs and Regulations
• LV Production Landscape, APAC
• Future Production Lineups, APAC
• LV Sales Forecast and Trends, APAC
• Key Takeaways, APAC

South America

• Top Markets for Sales, South America, 2024–2025
• LV Sales, Brazil, 2024–2025
• Top OEM Groups by Sales
• Tariffs and Regulations
• LV Sales, Argentina, 2024–2025
• Top OEM Groups by Sales
• Tariffs and Regulations
• LV Sales, Colombia, 2024–2025
• Top OEM Groups by Sales
• Tariffs and Regulations
• LV Sales Forecast and Trends, South America
• LV Production Landscape, South America
• Future Production Lineups, South America
• Key Takeaways, South America

Global Automotive Trends, 2026

• Methodology: Multipronged Approach to Shortlist the Key Trends
• Matrix to Pinpoint Which Trends to Assess in This Mobility Outlook

Acceleration of Manufacturing Nearshoring

• Mitigating Rare-Earth Materials Supply Risk
• Collaboration Between Legacy Automakers and Chinese OEMs
• Focus on Reducing Vehicle Development Time

Policy Realignment Leading to Resurgence of Traditional Powertrains

• Rising Demand for Affordable Cars
• Increased Investments in Automotive Cybersecurity
• Aftermarket Resurgence Driven by an Aging Vehicle Parc
• Increasing Adoption of Humanoid Robots in Auto Manufacturing
• Extended-Range Electric Vehicles to Gain Popularity

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Accelerating Affordable Vehicle Platforms for Growth Markets
• Growth Opportunity 2: Fuel-Flexible Powertrain Strategies to Build Resilience in Volatile Global Markets
• Growth Opportunity 3: Accelerating Circular Economy for Critical Auto Parts and Raw Materials

Appendix & Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Next Steps
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer