동남아시아의 석유 및 가스 다운스트림 : 시장 점유율 분석, 업계 동향 및 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the southeast asia oil and gas downstream market size is expected to grow from USD 6.15 billion in 2025 to USD 6.44 billion in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 8.1 billion by 2031 at 4.7% CAGR over 2026-2031.

This report is Segmented by Type (Refineries and Petrochemical Plants), Product Type (Refined Petroleum Products, Petrochemicals, and Lubricants), Distribution Channel (Direct Sales/Wholesale, Distributors/Commercial, and Retail), and Geography (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, Singapore, Myanmar, and Rest of Southeast Asia).

Southeast Asia Oil And Gas Downstream Market Trends and Insights

Rapid Recovery of Regional Jet-Fuel Demand Post-COVID

Aviation traffic across ASEAN rebounded sharply, pushing 2024 jet-fuel liftings at Singapore Changi to 8.2 million t, 15% above the 2019 baseline. Parallel upticks at Kuala Lumpur International and Suvarnabhumi airports were sufficient to justify refinery configuration shifts toward higher jet-fuel yields. Airlines such as AirAsia and Singapore Airlines restored fleet utilization while expanding secondary-city routes, which require multi-node fuel logistics and create stable pull-through for integrated supply contracts. Refineries equipped with advanced hydro-treaters capture premium spreads on certified aviation fuel, thereby reinforcing the margin resilience of the Southeast Asia oil and gas downstream market. Demand visibility encourages capital outlays for distillate-selective units that can toggle between jet fuel and diesel depending on seasonal crack spreads. Predictable volume signals also help downstream operators negotiate long-term offtake agreements that underpin balance-sheet planning across new integration projects.

Rising Regional Integration of Carbon-Pricing Schemes

Singapore lifted its carbon levy to SGD 25 t-CO2 in 2024 and will incrementally raise it to SGD 80 by 2030, a move mirrored by Thailand's pilot trading system and Indonesia's 2025 tax framework. Differentiated CO2 costs prompt operators to deploy flare-gas recovery, heat-integration retrofits, and post-combustion capture, thereby reducing unit emissions and creating tradable credits that offset compliance expenses. Financial centers in Kuala Lumpur and Singapore facilitate cross-border credit markets, enabling portfolio optimization for multi-country operators. Plants that couple carbon capture with hydrogen-ready furnaces position themselves for the looming scrutiny of global customers on Scope 3 emissions. Early adopters already monetize lower-carbon diesel and bunker blends through premium contracts with multinational logistics firms seeking verifiable emission reductions. Collectively, carbon-pricing harmonization supplies both carrot and stick incentives that accelerate technology uptake within the Southeast Asia oil and gas downstream market.

High Capital-Cost Escalations Amid EPC Supply-Chain Crunch

Steel and specialty-alloy prices surged 40% between 2022 and 2024, while delivery lead times for large-bore reactors stretched to 24 months, inflating outlays on hydrocrackers and ethylene crackers. Samsung Engineering and Hyundai Engineering reported procurement delays on Pengerang and Balikpapan units, forcing schedule re-baselines and eroding project net present values. Financing structures now incorporate larger contingency cushions and index-linked escalation clauses, adding complexity to credit-committee approvals. Operators with robust supplier alliances and modular construction plans partially offset cost blowouts, but smaller players confront prohibitive entry barriers. Persistent bottlenecks threaten to defer capacity-addition timelines, softening near-term supply growth in the Southeast Asia oil and gas downstream market.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Expansion of IMO 2020-Compliant Bunkering Hubs
2. Accelerated Petrochemical Integration at Existing Refineries
3. Growing EV Penetration Suppressing Gasoline Demand

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Refineries commanded 65.74% of 2025 revenue, but petrochemical units are expected to deliver the Southeast Asia oil and gas downstream market's fastest 6.02% CAGR through 2031. The refinery cohort leverages economies of scale, coastal logistics, and crude-flex configurations that can shift from sweet to sour slates as price spreads fluctuate. Singapore's integrated cluster alone processes 1.5 million bpd and feeds export pipelines across ASEAN. Nevertheless, the sustained risk of gasoline demand propels operators toward steam-cracker add-ons and aromatics extraction, which monetizes competitive naphtha economics.

Petrochemical integration increases the overall margin per barrel by converting incremental naphtha into ethylene-based derivative chains. Malaysia's RAPID complex embodies this shift, deploying unified off-gas recovery and shared cogeneration to lower unit costs. Thailand's Map Ta Phut expansion packages niche elastomers and specialty olefins for automotive component suppliers, reinforcing non-fuel value capture. The approach minimises exposure to motor-fuel cycling, future-proofing asset bases against electrification and decarbonization headwinds across the Southeast Asia oil and gas downstream market.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Sector
  • Refineries
  • Petrochemical Plants
• By Product Type
  • Refined Petroleum Products
  • Petrochemicals
  • Lubricants
• By Distribution Channel
  • Direct Sales/Wholesale
  • Distributors/Commercial
  • Retail
• By Geography
  • Indonesia
  • Malaysia
  • Thailand
  • Vietnam
  • Philippines
  • Singapore
  • Myanmar
  • Rest of Southeast Asia

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

1. Shell plc
2. PTT Public Company Ltd
3. PT Pertamina
4. Petroliam Nasional Berhad (PETRONAS)
5. Exxon Mobil Corp
6. Vietnam Oil & Gas Group (PetroVietnam)
7. Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk
8. Chevron Corporation
9. TotalEnergies SE
10. SK Energy
11. Hyundai Engineering Co.
12. Bangchak Corp
13. IRPC Public Co.
14. Hengyi Industries Sdn Bhd
15. Pilipinas Shell Petroleum Corp
16. Thai Oil Public Co.
17. PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk
18. Petron Corp
19. Brunei Shell Petroleum
20. Idemitsu Kosan (Vietnam JV)

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Rapid recovery of regional jet-fuel demand post-COVID
  • 4.2.2 Rising regional integration of carbon-pricing schemes
  • 4.2.3 Expansion of IMO 2020-compliant bunkering hubs
  • 4.2.4 Mainstream fuel-quality upgrades (Euro-V standards)
  • 4.2.5 Accelerated petrochemical integration at existing refineries
  • 4.2.6 AI-driven predictive maintenance reducing OPEX
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 High capital cost escalations amid EPC supply-chain crunch
  • 4.3.2 Growing EV penetration suppressing gasoline demand
  • 4.3.3 Stringent green-bond taxonomy limiting fossil-fuel financing
  • 4.3.4 Skilled-labor shortages for complex turnaround projects
• 4.4 Supply-Chain Analysis
• 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
• 4.6 Technological Outlook
• 4.7 Refining Capacity Analysis
• 4.8 Porter's Five Forces
  • 4.8.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.8.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.8.3 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.8.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.8.5 Industry Rivalry

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts

• 5.1 By Sector
  • 5.1.1 Refineries
  • 5.1.2 Petrochemical Plants
• 5.2 By Product Type
  • 5.2.1 Refined Petroleum Products
  • 5.2.2 Petrochemicals
  • 5.2.3 Lubricants
• 5.3 By Distribution Channel
  • 5.3.1 Direct Sales/Wholesale
  • 5.3.2 Distributors/Commercial
  • 5.3.3 Retail
• 5.4 By Geography
  • 5.4.1 Indonesia
  • 5.4.2 Malaysia
  • 5.4.3 Thailand
  • 5.4.4 Vietnam
  • 5.4.5 Philippines
  • 5.4.6 Singapore
  • 5.4.7 Myanmar
  • 5.4.8 Rest of Southeast Asia

6 Competitive Landscape

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves (M&A, Partnerships, PPAs)
• 6.3 Market Share Analysis (Market Rank/Share for key companies)
• 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 Shell plc
  • 6.4.2 PTT Public Company Ltd
  • 6.4.3 PT Pertamina
  • 6.4.4 Petroliam Nasional Berhad (PETRONAS)
  • 6.4.5 Exxon Mobil Corp
  • 6.4.6 Vietnam Oil & Gas Group (PetroVietnam)
  • 6.4.7 Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk
  • 6.4.8 Chevron Corporation
  • 6.4.9 TotalEnergies SE
  • 6.4.10 SK Energy
  • 6.4.11 Hyundai Engineering Co.
  • 6.4.12 Bangchak Corp
  • 6.4.13 IRPC Public Co.
  • 6.4.14 Hengyi Industries Sdn Bhd
  • 6.4.15 Pilipinas Shell Petroleum Corp
  • 6.4.16 Thai Oil Public Co.
  • 6.4.17 PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk
  • 6.4.18 Petron Corp
  • 6.4.19 Brunei Shell Petroleum
  • 6.4.20 Idemitsu Kosan (Vietnam JV)

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook

• 7.1 White-space & Unmet-Need Assessment