종이 및 플라스틱 포장 시장 전망(-2030년)

The plastic and paper material value chains are structured differently, leading to differences in how relevant influences in each industry will impact material use through the 2025-2030 period. Eighteen potential drivers that will impact the future use of plastic or paper have been identified, and the current situation has been outlined; along with a forecast of how these drivers will impact the material landscape in 2030.

This report investigates the differences between plastic and paper and the pressures on both. It examines priorities that are being addressed to enable continued use of plastics for packaging applications - in particular aspects like recyclability, use of recycled plastic, and weight optimisation. Simultaneously it analyses the opportunities for using fibre-based solutions as an alternative approach.

This report is essential to:

• Packaging raw material suppliers
• Packaging converters and manufacturers
• Retailers and brand owners

Key Questions:

• Where are the key priority areas for improving the sustainability profile and ensuring technical suitability of plastics and paper?
• How will differences in plastic and paper value chains affect material selection, cost, and use in packaging through to 2030?
• What new regulations and legislation will be influential or detrimental to the paper and plastic packaging sectors?
• Which market sectors favour plastic over paper, and what technical innovations are best positioned to alter this?

Table of Contents

Executive summary

Introduction and methodology

• Scope
• Objectives
• Methodology
  • List of top 21 product sectors assessed
  • Glossary of terms
  • Material abbreviations

Key drivers and trends to 2030

• Conclusion
• Overview
• Value chain for paper and plastic packaging
• Key drivers and trends, current and forecast
  • General sustainability pressures
  • Consumer awareness
  • Regulation and legislation
  • Recyclability and design for recycling
  • Inclusion of recycled content
  • Biodegradable or compostable materials
  • Material sourcing
  • Lifestyle influences and convenience
  • Food waste
  • Global supply chains
  • E-Commerce
  • Brand reputation
  • Retail environment and expectations
  • Claims
  • Waste management infrastructure
  • Brand innovation
  • Economic considerations
  • Key material moves by market sector

Technological forecast to 2030

• Conclusion
• Future use of plastic
  • Recyclability
  • Barrier
  • Use of recycled plastic
  • Alternative feedstocks
  • Biodegradable or compostable alternatives
  • Weight optimisation and plastic use reduction
• Future use of paper
  • Barrier development
  • Recyclability
  • Biodegradability or compostability
  • Alternative feedstocks
  • Moulded pulp developments
  • Forecast to 2030

End-use sectors: market forecasts

• Conclusion
• Overview
• For each end-use sector
  • Overview of current packaging formats & materials
  • Technology developments
    • Paper
    • Plastic
  • Forecast to 2030
• List of end-use sectors:
  • Laundry capsules/pods
  • Confectionery
  • Snacks & crisps
  • Dry foods
  • Wine and spirits
  • Coffee and hot drinks for preparation at home
  • Cosmetics
  • Personal care
  • Homecare
  • Laundry liquids
  • Fast food
  • Ready meals
  • Frozen food
  • Ice cream and frozen desserts
  • Fresh produce (fruit, vegetables, meat and fish)
  • Condiments
  • Pet foods
  • Multipacks for home paper products
  • Out-of-home hot beverages
  • On-the-go foods (sandwiches, salads etc)
  • Dairy-based products
• Growth of pack formats across sectors
  • Overview of forecast growth of packaging formats across sectors

Geographic market differences and forecast to 2030

• Conclusion
• Overview
• Plastic waste management
  • Regulation differences
  • Technology development differences
  • Recycled plastic differences
  • Compostable plastics differences
• The paper market
  • Paper waste management overview
  • Paper supply differences
  • New materials development
  • Other geographic differences
  • Forecast to 2030
• Pack formats per region
  • Forecast growth of pack formats to 2030, by region

FIGURES

• Growth of packaging consumption globally to 2050
• Paper packaging value chain
• Plastic packaging value chain
• FMCG commitments and status in 2023 (top 10)
• FMCG commitments and status in 2023 (others)
• Key factors in global consumer purchase decisions
• Consumer perception on sustainability of various packaging materials
• Overview of EPR adoption across markets
• Recycling differences across markets
• Material types: recycling levels differences
• Material types: differences in mode of waste disposed
• Ariel carton board Liquid capsules pack
• Persil carton board Liquid capsules pack
• Recyclable PE pouch from Costco
• Paper-based Kind Bar
• Quality Street paper-based pouch and tub
• Paper-based packs Mars Brands
• Paper-based Yes! Bars
• Paper-based KitKat wrappers
• Paper-based Smarties packs
• Paper-based Cox & Co pack
• Paper-based Walkers Chocolate wrapper
• Paper-based Holland & Barrett wrapper
• Paper-based Moonvalley wrapper
• Paper-based Cadbury's outer pack
• KitKat wrapper with recycled plastic
• Proper Bars with recycled plastic
• Cadbury's wrapper with recycled plastic
• Kind Bars with recycled plastic
• Compostable Skittles bag
• Paper-based outer packaging for Walkers Crisps
• Paper-based outer packaging for Snack A Jacks
• Paper-based pack British Snack Co.
• Paper-based pack Awfully Posh Peanuts
• Tesco recycling scheme for Crisp Packets
• PepsiCo Snacks bag with recycled plastic
• Burts Crisps Bag with recycled plastic
• PepsiCo compostable film bag
• Illustrations of paper-based packs in pasta & rice sector
• Unilever dry foods paper pouches
• Paper-based bouillon wrappers
• Marigold EnviroCan
• Paper-based snack pots
• Paper-based nutrition and wellness packs
• Knorr recyclable plastic pouch
• Maggi noodles with recycled plastic
• Pulpex-Diageo paper bottle
• Pulpac-Diageo paper bottle
• Paboco-Pernod Ricard paper bottle
• Pernod Ricard paper-based bottle and Blue Ocean Closures fibre-based cap
• Examples of Frugalpac paper bottles
• 100% rPET wine bottle from Aldi and Packamama
• Nesquik paper pouch
• Nespresso paper capsule
• Nescafe paper refill pouch
• JDE Peets paper refill pouches
• Examples of ground coffee in paper bags
• Recyclable pouch with recycled content from Origin Coffee
• E-furnace development from Ardagh
• 80% recycled aluminium content from Nespresso
• Example of paper-based cosmetics packs from Stock Suppliers
• L'Oreal paper-based tubes
• WoW Skin Science paper tube
• Aveda paper sample pack
• Rigid pulp container developments by L'Oreal and Estee Lauder
• Boots cosmetics collection point
• M&S cosmetics collection point
• Biotherm Cap with recycled plastic
• Ren Packaging with recycled plastic
• Shiseido compostable cap
• Les Eaux de Chanel compostable cap
• English Soap Company paper soap wrapper
• Dove soap carton paper multipack overwrap
• Example of solid shampoo bar
• Example of paper-based deodorant stick
• Pulpex-Evolve Organic Beauty paper refill pack
• Examples of recyclable pumps
• Colgate recyclable tube
• Dove body wash with recycled plastic
• Caudalie Recyclable deodorant stick
• P&G Deodorant pack with recycled plastic
• Example of refillable deodorant stick design
• Finish Dishwash tablets paper pouch
• Esselt Dishwash tablets paper pouch
• Fairy washing-up liquid in liquid carton refill pack
• Smol Liquid carton refill pack
• Example of Recyclable Trigger and Pouche
• Examples of packs with recycled plastic
• Examples of laundry liquids in liquid cartons
• Paboco-P&G paper bottle
• SUPA paper bottle
• Examples of laundry liquid packs with recycled plastic
• Examples of paper-based fast food containers
• Example of peelable liner
• Example of coated paper tray
• Amcor recyclable tray supplied to Configeo
• Example of paper-based bags for Frozen Products
• Compostable bag for frozen food from CJ Materials and Pregis
• Example of paper-based ice cream Flowwrap
• Examples of paper wrap for ice cream filled cones
• Paper tub for ice cream
• Examples of ice cream tubs with recycled plastic
• Example of paper containers for fresh fruit and vegetables
• Examples of paper-based meat and fish packaging
• Proampac's recyclable PP meat tray
• Use of recycled plastic in meat tray from Xact and Termoformas
• Use of 100% rPET in Meat Tray from Tesco, Hilton Foods and Klockner Pentaplast
• Use of recycled polyamide in meat tray
• Pulpex-Kraft Heinz paper bottle image
• Masterfoods paper pack
• Recyclable dosing cap from Heinz
• Example of condiment bottles with recycled plastic
• Compostable mayonnaise sachet from Hellmann's
• Example of paper-based pet food packs
• Example of use of Sonoco's Greencan
• Example of pet food recyclable pouches
• Sheba Pouch with recycled plastic
• Example of paper multipacks for home paper products
• Starbucks-Qwarzo compostable cup
• Starbucks Paper Lid
• M&S Paper Lid
• Paper insulation example from Costa Coffee
• NextGen Consortium Starbucks reuse trial
• Example of compostable cup
• Example of paper-based sandwich packaging
• Example of paper-based salad bowl and lid
• Example of paper-based yoghurt pot
• Paper margarine tub from Flora
• Example of paper-based recyclable butter wraps
• Yoplait Pots with recycled plastic
• Danone yoghurt pot with recycled plastic
• Compostable butter wrap from Novolex
• Comparison in Europe of material recycling levels
• Comparison in Europe of material disposal routes
• Comparison in India of material recycling levels
• Comparison in India of material disposal routes
• Comparison in Europe of material recycling levels
• Comparison in Europe of material disposal routes
• Comparison in India of material recycling levels
• Comparison in India of material disposal routes

TABLES

• Overview of key drivers and trends and impact in 2025 vs 2030
• Overview of key market sectors and plastic vs paper trends
• Global growth of consumer packaging by format to 2030 ('000 tonnes)
• Summary of key drivers in 2025
• Summary of top opportunities and concerns in use of plastic vs paper
• Relative impact by 2030 of general sustainability pressures
• Relative impact by 2030 of consumer awareness
• Relative impact by 2030 of regulation and legislation
• Relative impact by 2030 of recyclability and design for recycling
• Relative impact by 2030 of inclusion of recycled content
• Food grade pcr packaging consumption by region, 2019-29 ('000 tonnes)
• Relative impact by 2030 of biodegradable or compostable materials
• Relative impact by 2030 of material sourcing
• Relative impact by 2030 of lifestyle influences and convenience
• Relative impact by 2030 of food waste
• Relative impact by 2030 of global supply chains
• Relative impact by 2030 of e-commerce
• Relative impact by 2030 of brand reputation
• Relative impact by 2030 of retail environment and expectations
• Relative impact by 2030 of claims
• Relative impact by 2030 of waste management infrastructure
• Relative impact by 2030 of brand innovation
• Relative impact by 2030 of economic considerations
• Overview of key material moves across various market sectors
• Overview of key technology development areas for improved sustainability profile
• Overview of global barrier coating consumption and 2030 projection ('000 tonnes)
• Overview of key barrier technologies for paper
• Shifts currently seen for laundry capsules/pods
• Shifts currently seen for confectionery
• Shifts currently seen for snacks & crisps
• Shifts currently seen for dry foods
• Shifts currently seen for wine & spirits
• Shifts currently seen for coffee and hot drinks for preparation at home
• Shifts currently seen for cosmetics
• Shifts currently seen for personal care
• Shifts currently seen for homecare
• Shifts currently seen for laundry liquids
• Shifts currently seen for fast food
• Shifts currently seen for ready meals
• Shifts currently seen for frozen food
• Shifts currently seen for ice cream and frozen desserts
• Shifts currently seen for fresh produce (fruit, vegetables, meat, fish)
• Shifts currently seen for condiments
• Shifts currently seen for pet foods
• Shifts currently seen for multipacks for home paper products
• Shifts currently seen for out-of-home hot beverages
• Shifts currently seen for on-the-go foods (sandwiches, salads etc)
• Shifts currently seen dairy-based products
• Growth of pack formats in foods sector ('000 tonnes)
• Growth of pack formats in drinks sector ('000 tonnes)
• Growth of pack formats in healthcare sector ('000 tonnes)
• Growth of pack formats in cosmetics sector ('000 tonnes)
• Growth of pack formats in other consumer goods sector ('000 tonnes)
• Forecast growth of pack formats in europe ('000 tonnes)
• Forecast growth of pack formats in Middle East & Africa ('000 tonnes)
• Forecast growth of pack formats in North America ('000 tonnes)
• Forecast growth of pack formats in South & Central America ('000 tonnes)
• Forecast growth of pack formats in Asia Pacific ('000 tonnes)
• Forecasted value growth of consumer plastic flexibles across regions ($ million)
• Forecasted value growth of consumer paper flexibles across regions ($ million)
• Forecast growth of consumer product sectors in Europe ('000 tonnes)
• Forecast growth of consumer product sectors in North America ('000 tonnes)
• Forecast growth of consumer product sectors in South & Central America ('000 tonnes)
• Forecast growth of consumer product sectors in Asia Pacific ('000 tonnes)
• Forecast growth of consumer product sectors in Middle East & Africa ('000 tonnes)
• Forecasted value growth of consumer versus industrial packaging across regions, for plastic and paper flexibles ($ million)