연료전지 전기 버스 시장 : 점유율 분석, 업계 동향과 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the fuel cell electric bus market size was valued at USD 1.12 billion in 2025 and estimated to grow from USD 1.36 billion in 2026 to reach USD 3.52 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 21.03% during the forecast period (2026-2031).

This report is Segmented by Application (Intercity and Intracity), Bus Type (New Hydrogen Buses and Retrofitted Hydrogen Buses), Fuel-Cell Type (Proton-Exchange Membrane (PEMFC) and More), Power Rating ( Less Than 150 KW and More), Bus Length (9 - 12 M and Over 12 M), Driving Range (Less Than 300 Km and More), and Geography. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD) and Volume (Units).

Global Fuel Cell Electric Bus Market Trends and Insights

Growing Zero-Emission Mandates for Public Transit Fleets

Many transit agencies now face statutory deadlines to eliminate diesel, prompting multi-year framework agreements for hydrogen buses. California requires full zero-emission fleets by 2040, triggering near-term orders under its Innovative Clean Transit rule. European Union's Clean Vehicles Directive pushed zero-emission buses to 49% of new deliveries in 2024, with fuel-cell models already taking 3% of the total. Emerging markets follow a similar path-Abu Dhabi targets a 20% green fleet share by 2030, providing clear procurement visibility for OEMs. Binding mandates, therefore, underpin the long-term demand curve of the fuel cell electric bus market.

Sharp Decline in Green Hydrogen Prices Post-2025

Electrolyzer scale-up and cheaper renewables are expected to cut average production costs to EUR 2.7 per kg by 2050, with Asia projected to hit EUR 1.8 per kg, altering the operating-cost parity versus diesel. China's hydrogen sector nearly doubled revenue to CNY 3.93 billion in 2023, demonstrating the deflationary trajectory of equipment and supply chains. Newly funded hubs such as the Pacific Northwest Hydrogen Hub in the United States add regional cost advantages that lower fuel bills for transit fleets.

Competition From Fast-Charging Battery-Electric Buses

Battery-electric buses outsold diesel in EU city segments for the first time in 2024, buoyed by falling battery costs and abundant depot chargers. The International Energy Agency counted over 70,000 new e-buses worldwide in 2024, a 30% jump from the year. On routes below 200 km daily, TCO modelling still favors batteries, forcing hydrogen proponents to emphasise longer-range and high-utilisation niches.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Government-Backed Bulk Procurement Programmes
2. Rapid Expansion of Liquid-Hydrogen Refuelling Corridors
3. Grey-Hydrogen Supply Still Cheaper Than Green

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Intracity services generated 63.10% of 2025 revenue, equal to USD 0.71 billion of fuel cell electric bus market size, because city routes favour centralized refueling and predictable duty cycles. Intercity lines, while nascent, promise the steepest 24.74% CAGR as operators exploit hydrogen's 300-500 km sweet spot to avoid en-route charging. The fuel cell electric bus market benefits when depot footprints are tight and grid upgrades for megawatt-scale chargers prove costly. Demonstrations such as Chile's 600 km-range fleet underscore hydrogen's suitability for long-haul corridors.

Urban agencies also appreciate 10-minute refueling that keeps schedule recovery buffers thin. Intercity networks look to hydrogen to power overnight express links where battery packs would erode passenger capacity. Autonomous shuttle pilots increasingly specify fuel cells to support 20-hour daily duty without downtime, sharpening the performance edge for the fuel cell electric bus market.

New bus models represented 71.10% of 2025 deliveries, reflecting OEM focus on optimized chassis that integrate tanks within the roofline and free floor space. Retrofits, although smaller, are sprinting at a 31.97% CAGR as kit providers enable agencies to convert younger diesel stock instead of scrapping it early. Transit authorities with capped capital budgets view conversions as a bridge to 2030 emission targets, especially where policy offers purchase vouchers.

Still, builders like Solaris and Hyundai embed stacks, inverters, and cooling loops directly into new frames, delivering lower curb weight and simpler maintenance. As economies of scale sharpen, the fuel cell electric bus market is expected to pivot toward fresh builds because total lifecycle cost favors factory-integrated systems beyond year five of operation.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Application
  • Intercity
  • Intracity
• By Bus Type
  • New Hydrogen Buses
  • Retrofitted Hydrogen Buses
• By Fuel-cell Type
  • Proton-Exchange Membrane (PEMFC)
  • Phosphoric-Acid (PAFC)
  • Solid-Oxide (SOFC)
  • Others
• By Power Rating
  • Less than 150 kW
  • 150 - 250 kW
  • Above 250 kW
• By Bus Length
  • 9 - 12 metres
  • Over 12 metres (articulated)
• By Driving Range
  • Less than 300 km
  • 300 - 500 km
  • Above 500 km
• By Geography
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Rest of North America
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Rest of South America
  • Europe
    • Germany
    • United Kingdom
    • France
    • Italy
    • Spain
    • Russia
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia-Pacific
    • China
    • Japan
    • India
    • South Korea
    • Australia
    • Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • Middle East & Africa
    • Saudi Arabia
    • United Arab Emirates
    • Turkey
    • South Africa
    • Rest of Middle East & Africa

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific commanded 43.26% of global revenue in 2025, equal to USD 0.48 billion of fuel cell electric bus market size, owing to China's infrastructure blitz and Korean bulk orders. The region's 30.12% CAGR to 2031 rests on 1,200 new hydrogen stations, national toll exemptions, and integrated industrial strategies that align energy, vehicle, and component value chains. North America follows, expanding at a 27.26% CAGR on the strength of USD 623 million federal funding and state mandates that force fleet turnovers by 2035. Projects like the Pacific Northwest Hydrogen Hub bring USD 1 billion into the upstream supply, lowering delivered fuel prices for agencies along Interstate corridors. Canada's Zero Emission Transit Fund also kick-starts municipal pilots, evidenced by Mississauga's first hydrogen fleet. Europe shows a 23.42% CAGR outlook, powered by the Clean Vehicles Directive and local manufacturing dominance. Germany alone targets 3,800 fuel-cell buses by 2030 with heavy co-investment in stations. The Middle East & Africa represents the fastest-growing territory at 30.64% CAGR, even if it starts from a lower base, spurred by UAE and Saudi sustainability programs that reposition hydrocarbons majors into hydrogen mobility. Pilot deployments in Abu Dhabi and Riyadh validate climatic performance and seed local supply chains, broadening the geographic reach of the fuel cell electric bus market.

1. Ballard Power Systems Inc.
2. New Flyer Industries
3. Toyota Motor Corporation
4. Hyundai Motor Company
5. Tata Motors Ltd.
6. Van Hool NV
7. IVECO Group
8. SAFRA
9. Wrightbus (Bamford Bus Company Holdings Limited)
10. CaetanoBus
11. Foton International
12. Yutong Bus Co., Ltd.
13. ZhongTong Bus Holding Co., Ltd.
14. CRRC Zhuzhou Electric Co., Ltd.
15. Nuvera Fuel Cells LLC
16. Nikola Corporation

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Growing Zero-Emission Mandates for Public Transit Fleets
  • 4.2.2 Sharp Decline in Green Hydrogen Prices Post-2025
  • 4.2.3 Government-Backed Bulk Procurement Programmes
  • 4.2.4 Rapid Expansion of Liquid-Hydrogen Refuelling Corridors
  • 4.2.5 OEM Platform Standardisation Lowering Total Cost of Ownership
  • 4.2.6 Autonomous Shuttle Pilots Selecting FCEBs for Extended Duty Cycles
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 Competition From Fast-Charging Battery-Electric Buses
  • 4.3.2 Grey-Hydrogen Supply Still Cheaper Than Green
  • 4.3.3 Under-Developed Maintenance Workforce
  • 4.3.4 High Capex for Cryogenic Onboard Storage Systems
• 4.4 Value / Supply-Chain Analysis
• 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
• 4.6 Technological Outlook
• 4.7 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • 4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.7.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts (Value [USD] and Volume [Units])

• 5.1 By Application
  • 5.1.1 Intercity
  • 5.1.2 Intracity
• 5.2 By Bus Type
  • 5.2.1 New Hydrogen Buses
  • 5.2.2 Retrofitted Hydrogen Buses
• 5.3 By Fuel-cell Type
  • 5.3.1 Proton-Exchange Membrane (PEMFC)
  • 5.3.2 Phosphoric-Acid (PAFC)
  • 5.3.3 Solid-Oxide (SOFC)
  • 5.3.4 Others
• 5.4 By Power Rating
  • 5.4.1 Less than 150 kW
  • 5.4.2 150 - 250 kW
  • 5.4.3 Above 250 kW
• 5.5 By Bus Length
  • 5.5.1 9 - 12 metres
  • 5.5.2 Over 12 metres (articulated)
• 5.6 By Driving Range
  • 5.6.1 Less than 300 km
  • 5.6.2 300 - 500 km
  • 5.6.3 Above 500 km
• 5.7 By Geography
  • 5.7.1 North America
    • 5.7.1.1 United States
    • 5.7.1.2 Canada
    • 5.7.1.3 Rest of North America
  • 5.7.2 South America
    • 5.7.2.1 Brazil
    • 5.7.2.2 Argentina
    • 5.7.2.3 Rest of South America
  • 5.7.3 Europe
    • 5.7.3.1 Germany
    • 5.7.3.2 United Kingdom
    • 5.7.3.3 France
    • 5.7.3.4 Italy
    • 5.7.3.5 Spain
    • 5.7.3.6 Russia
    • 5.7.3.7 Rest of Europe
  • 5.7.4 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.7.4.1 China
    • 5.7.4.2 Japan
    • 5.7.4.3 India
    • 5.7.4.4 South Korea
    • 5.7.4.5 Australia
    • 5.7.4.6 Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • 5.7.5 Middle East & Africa
    • 5.7.5.1 Saudi Arabia
    • 5.7.5.2 United Arab Emirates
    • 5.7.5.3 Turkey
    • 5.7.5.4 South Africa
    • 5.7.5.5 Rest of Middle East & Africa

6 Competitive Landscape

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves
• 6.3 Market Share Analysis
• 6.4 Company Profiles (Includes Global Level Overview, Market Level Overview, Core Segments, Financials as Available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for Key Companies, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 Ballard Power Systems Inc.
  • 6.4.2 New Flyer Industries
  • 6.4.3 Toyota Motor Corporation
  • 6.4.4 Hyundai Motor Company
  • 6.4.5 Tata Motors Ltd.
  • 6.4.6 Van Hool NV
  • 6.4.7 IVECO Group
  • 6.4.8 SAFRA
  • 6.4.9 Wrightbus (Bamford Bus Company Holdings Limited)
  • 6.4.10 CaetanoBus
  • 6.4.11 Foton International
  • 6.4.12 Yutong Bus Co., Ltd.
  • 6.4.13 ZhongTong Bus Holding Co., Ltd.
  • 6.4.14 CRRC Zhuzhou Electric Co., Ltd.
  • 6.4.15 Nuvera Fuel Cells LLC
  • 6.4.16 Nikola Corporation

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook