전기 버스 시장 : 점유율 분석, 업계 동향 및 통계, 성장 예측(2026-2031년)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the electric bus market size is expected to grow from USD 24.22 billion in 2025 to USD 28.77 billion in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 68.11 billion by 2031 at an 18.81% CAGR over 2026-2031.

This report is Segmented by Propulsion (Battery Electric Bus, and More), Application (City/Transit, and More), Battery Chemistry (LFP, and More), Length (Below 9m, and More), Motor Architecture (PMSM, and More), Motor Power (Below 100kW, 100-150kW, and More), Range (Below 100km, and More), End Use (Public and Private), and Geography. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD) and Volume (Units).

Global Electric Bus Market Trends and Insights

Battery-Price Decline Below USD 85/kWh

Major Asian production hubs have achieved economies of scale, leading to a continued decline in battery costs. Analysts predict that these costs will decrease further in the near future, potentially allowing electric vehicles to compete with internal combustion engines on price, even without subsidies, provided certain conditions regarding vehicle lifespan and fuel prices are met. Meanwhile, emerging technologies like sodium-ion batteries offer potential cost benefits, albeit with some trade-offs in energy density when compared to traditional lithium-ion batteries. As battery prices fall, there's a noticeable uptick in second-life battery markets. End-of-life battery packs, still boasting considerable usable capacity, are being repurposed for stationary energy storage. This trend not only bolsters the residual values of these batteries but also paves the way for more attractive leasing terms for electric vehicles.

Mainstream EV Mandates in Megacities

Zero-emission rules in major cities act as de facto diesel bans, compressing fleet-renewal timelines to as little as five years and triggering large-scale procurements that outpace local manufacturing capacity. Agencies shoulder added expenses for depot redesigns and driver retraining, inflating project budgets by 15-20%. Smaller operators often exit or merge because they lack access to low-cost capital, increasing concentration among large public fleets. Asian cities such as Hong Kong and Ho Chi Minh City pledge full electrification by 2030, creating synchronized demand peaks that strain global supply chains. Compliance costs extend beyond vehicles, encompassing grid upgrades and workforce reskilling, which complicate rollout schedules.

Grid-Upgrade Bottlenecks at Depots

Expanding depot capacity for electric fleets often requires significant upgrades to power infrastructure, including additional transformer capacity and extended coordination with utilities. These projects can be delayed by interconnection queues and land constraints at older sites, which add complexity and cost to real-estate planning in the electric bus market. Furthermore, the need for advanced energy management systems and grid modernization adds another layer of challenges, requiring collaboration between fleet operators, utilities, and policymakers to ensure seamless integration and scalability.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Global OEM Platform Modularization
2. Hydrogen FCEB Pilots in Port Corridors
3. Scarcity of TCO-Viable Fuel-Cell Grade H2

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Battery-electric buses held an 83.92% Electric Bus Market share in 2025, while fuel-cell models are forecasted to have a 20.82% CAGR through 2031, as intercity operators value a 400-500 km range and sub-15-minute refueling. Plug-in hybrids shrink as battery ranges exceed 300 km. BEB growth ties directly to lithium-ion price drops, depot-charging compatibility, and favorable overnight charging tariffs. FCEB growth clusters around ports and mountainous regions, where weight savings are crucial and existing hydrogen infrastructure reduces capital expenditures.

City fleets will standardize on BEBs by 2028, whereas long-haul corridors adopt hydrogen as costs approach USD 3-4 per kg. California's Advanced Clean Fleets rule recognizes both technologies for compliance, aligning regulatory incentives. Fast refueling and lighter axle loads make FCEBs competitive on time-sensitive routes, provided green hydrogen scales.

City buses accounted for 62.37% of 2025 deployments; however, intercity services are projected to grow at a 19.18% CAGR due to the widening availability of 300-450 km battery packs. With substantial federal grants backing the initiative, school-bus electrification is gaining momentum. Meanwhile, airport shuttle operators are turning to electric vehicles, aiming to reduce noise and emissions in their confined operating environments.

Urban routes lead the charge in electrification, as their stop-and-go traffic optimally harnesses the benefits of regenerative braking. Intercity adoption is on the rise, thanks to advancements in battery energy density and plummeting costs, which lessen the dependence on costly en-route charging stations. Additionally, both tourism and corporate shuttle fleets are transitioning to electric models, aligning with sustainability goals and reaping the benefits of significantly reduced maintenance needs.

LFP packs captured 59.63% of 2025 installations on cost and thermal stability, and NMC/NCA chemistries are expected to see a 20.28% CAGR as density surpasses 250 Wh/kg. Lithium-titanate caters to fast-charge urban loops, while sodium-ion targets cost-sensitive, short-range applications.

LFP's cobalt-free design mitigates supply-chain risk and enables full-depth-of-discharge cycles without accelerated degradation. NMC and NCA architectures serve routes requiring a range of over 450 km but require more robust thermal management, which raises pack expense. Sodium-ion reduces exposure to lithium pricing but sacrifices range capability, constraining it to dense urban runs.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Propulsion
  • Battery Electric Bus (BEB)
  • Plug-in Hybrid Electric Bus (PHEB)
  • Fuel Cell Electric Bus (FCEB)
• By Application
  • City / Transit
  • Intercity / Regional
  • Coach / Tourist
  • School Bus
  • Airport
  • Others
• By Battery Chemistry
  • Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP)
  • Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) / Nickel Cobalt Aluminum (NCA)
  • Lithium Titanate (LTO)
  • Others (Sodium-ion, emerging / pilots)
• By Length
  • Below 9 m
  • 9-14 m
  • 14-18 m
  • Above 18 m
• By Motor Architecture
  • Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor (PMSM)
  • Induction Motor / Asynchronous AC
  • Switched Reluctance Motor (SRM)
  • Others
• By Motor Power
  • Below 100 kW
  • 100-150 kW
  • 151-200 kW
  • 201-250 kW
  • 251-320 kW
  • Above 320 kW
• By Range
  • Below 100 km
  • 100-200 km
  • 201-300 km
  • 300-450 km
  • Above 450 km
• By End Use
  • Public
  • Private
• By Geography
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Mexico
    • Rest of North America
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Rest of South America
  • Europe
    • Germany
    • France
    • Italy
    • Spain
    • United Kingdom
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia-Pacific
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • Asia-Pacific
  • Middle East and Africa
    • United Arab Emirates
    • South Africa
    • Rest of Middle East and Africa

Geography Analysis

In 2025, the Asia-Pacific region dominated the market, accounting for 64.82% of the total volume. China's extensive fleet of electric buses, coupled with India's national subsidy initiatives, is propelling the electrification of bus fleets across Asia. These initiatives are narrowing the cost disparity between electric and diesel buses, making it easier for operators to transition. At the same time, Japan and South Korea are positioning themselves at the forefront of hydrogen mobility, integrating fuel-cell buses into their national agendas to bolster hydrogen infrastructure and advocate for cleaner transportation.

Europe is on track to achieve a robust 19.88% CAGR, spurred by the EU Clean Vehicles Directive's push for zero-emission city buses. Countries such as Germany and France are backing this transition with substantial financial incentives for electric buses. Furthermore, cities like London, Paris, and Milan are intensifying their efforts to phase out diesel fleets, bolstered by the establishment of low-emission zones. In a bid to boost domestic battery-cell production, local-content mandates are gaining traction, with industry giants like Northvolt and LG Energy Solution ramping up their gigafactory capacities.

In North America, federal grants and infrastructure initiatives are championing the transition, especially within school bus fleets. Yet, progress is hampered by utility interconnection delays. Meanwhile, in Latin America, cities are experimenting with innovative contract models, such as "route-as-a-service," to navigate financial hurdles. In the Middle East, urban centers are integrating electric buses into their central shuttle routes, aligning with broader sustainability goals.

1. BYD Company Ltd.
2. Yutong Bus Co. Ltd.
3. CRRC Electric Vehicle Co. Ltd.
4. NFI Group
5. Volvo Group AB
6. Proterra Inc.
7. Alexander Dennis Ltd.
8. VDL Bus and Coach
9. Ebusco Holding N.V.
10. Solaris Bus and Coach
11. Switch Mobility Ltd.
12. Wrightbus
13. Tata Motors Ltd.
14. Ashok Leyland Ltd.
15. Daimler Truck Holding AG
16. King Long United Automotive
17. Zhongtong Bus Co. Ltd.
18. Anhui Ankai Automobile
19. Chery Automobile Co. Ltd.
20. Chongqing Changan Automobile

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

• 4.1 Urbanization, Population and Transit Demand
• 4.2 Public Transport Share and Mode Shift
• 4.3 Diesel vs Electricity/Hydrogen Price Spread
• 4.4 Vehicle and Infra CAPEX / OPEX
• 4.5 Financing Models
• 4.6 Bus Specs and Vehicle Standards
• 4.7 Charging Stations and Charging Topology
• 4.8 Hydrogen Stations Serving Buses
• 4.9 Subsidy / Incentive Value
• 4.10 OEM Line-up and Model Pipeline
• 4.11 Regulatory Framework
• 4.12 Vehicle Homologation and Safety
• 4.13 Procurement and Contracting Rules
• 4.14 Fiscal and Industrial Policy (Incentives, Duties, Localization, EPR)
• 4.15 Market Overview
• 4.16 Market Drivers
  • 4.16.1 Mainstream EV Mandates in Megacities
  • 4.16.2 Battery-Price Decline Below USD 85/kWh
  • 4.16.3 Hydrogen FCEB Pilots in Port Corridors
  • 4.16.4 Global OEM Platform Modularization
  • 4.16.5 Route-as-a-Service Contracting
  • 4.16.6 Second-Life Battery Monetization
• 4.17 Market Restraints
  • 4.17.1 Grid-Upgrade Bottlenecks at Depots
  • 4.17.2 Scarcity of TCO-Viable Fuel-Cell Grade H?
  • 4.17.3 Residual-Value Uncertainty
  • 4.17.4 Critical-Minerals Export Curbs
• 4.18 Value / Supply-Chain Analysis
• 4.19 Porter's Five Forces
  • 4.19.1 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.19.2 Bargaining Power - Suppliers
  • 4.19.3 Bargaining Power - Buyers
  • 4.19.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.19.5 Competitive Rivalry

5 Market Size and Growth Forecasts (Value and Volume)

• 5.1 By Propulsion
  • 5.1.1 Battery Electric Bus (BEB)
  • 5.1.2 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Bus (PHEB)
  • 5.1.3 Fuel Cell Electric Bus (FCEB)
• 5.2 By Application
  • 5.2.1 City / Transit
  • 5.2.2 Intercity / Regional
  • 5.2.3 Coach / Tourist
  • 5.2.4 School Bus
  • 5.2.5 Airport
  • 5.2.6 Others
• 5.3 By Battery Chemistry
  • 5.3.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP)
  • 5.3.2 Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) / Nickel Cobalt Aluminum (NCA)
  • 5.3.3 Lithium Titanate (LTO)
  • 5.3.4 Others (Sodium-ion, emerging / pilots)
• 5.4 By Length
  • 5.4.1 Below 9 m
  • 5.4.2 9-14 m
  • 5.4.3 14-18 m
  • 5.4.4 Above 18 m
• 5.5 By Motor Architecture
  • 5.5.1 Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor (PMSM)
  • 5.5.2 Induction Motor / Asynchronous AC
  • 5.5.3 Switched Reluctance Motor (SRM)
  • 5.5.4 Others
• 5.6 By Motor Power
  • 5.6.1 Below 100 kW
  • 5.6.2 100-150 kW
  • 5.6.3 151-200 kW
  • 5.6.4 201-250 kW
  • 5.6.5 251-320 kW
  • 5.6.6 Above 320 kW
• 5.7 By Range
  • 5.7.1 Below 100 km
  • 5.7.2 100-200 km
  • 5.7.3 201-300 km
  • 5.7.4 300-450 km
  • 5.7.5 Above 450 km
• 5.8 By End Use
  • 5.8.1 Public
  • 5.8.2 Private
• 5.9 By Geography
  • 5.9.1 North America
    • 5.9.1.1 United States
    • 5.9.1.2 Canada
    • 5.9.1.3 Mexico
    • 5.9.1.4 Rest of North America
  • 5.9.2 South America
    • 5.9.2.1 Brazil
    • 5.9.2.2 Argentina
    • 5.9.2.3 Rest of South America
  • 5.9.3 Europe
    • 5.9.3.1 Germany
    • 5.9.3.2 France
    • 5.9.3.3 Italy
    • 5.9.3.4 Spain
    • 5.9.3.5 United Kingdom
    • 5.9.3.6 Rest of Europe
  • 5.9.4 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.9.4.1 China
    • 5.9.4.2 India
    • 5.9.4.3 Japan
    • 5.9.4.4 South Korea
    • 5.9.4.5 Asia-Pacific
  • 5.9.5 Middle East and Africa
    • 5.9.5.1 United Arab Emirates
    • 5.9.5.2 South Africa
    • 5.9.5.3 Rest of Middle East and Africa

6 Competitive Landscape

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves
• 6.3 Market Share Analysis
• 6.4 Company Profiles (Includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for key companies, Products and Services, and Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 BYD Company Ltd.
  • 6.4.2 Yutong Bus Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.3 CRRC Electric Vehicle Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.4 NFI Group
  • 6.4.5 Volvo Group AB
  • 6.4.6 Proterra Inc.
  • 6.4.7 Alexander Dennis Ltd.
  • 6.4.8 VDL Bus and Coach
  • 6.4.9 Ebusco Holding N.V.
  • 6.4.10 Solaris Bus and Coach
  • 6.4.11 Switch Mobility Ltd.
  • 6.4.12 Wrightbus
  • 6.4.13 Tata Motors Ltd.
  • 6.4.14 Ashok Leyland Ltd.
  • 6.4.15 Daimler Truck Holding AG
  • 6.4.16 King Long United Automotive
  • 6.4.17 Zhongtong Bus Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.18 Anhui Ankai Automobile
  • 6.4.19 Chery Automobile Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.20 Chongqing Changan Automobile

7 Market Opportunities and Future Outlook

• 7.1 White-space and Unmet-need Assessment

8 Key Strategic Questions for CEOs